Small Craft Advisory 413, NWS Juneau, AK

502 
FZAK53 PAJK 141149
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 14 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-150600-
Yakutat Bay-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt early in the morning becoming light.
Seas 9 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming W 10 kt late. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

406 
FZAK53 PAJK 142328
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
328 PM AKDT Tue Sep 14 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-151730-
Yakutat Bay-
328 PM AKDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt late. Seas 8 ft subsiding.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers late. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 

$$

631 
FZAK53 PAJK 151133
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
333 AM AKDT Wed Sep 15 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-160545-
Yakutat Bay-
333 AM AKDT Wed Sep 15 2021

.TODAY...Light winds. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or
less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
153 PM AKDT Mon Sep 13 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Wednesday as of 2pm Monday/ ASCAT shows
gale-force winds in the Northern Gulf from this afternoon. Winds
will ease once the front passes over the inside portion of the
Panhandle this evening. Below normal temperatures are expected on
the backside of this front. Southerly flow exists through the
short term, so a showery period remains with low amounts of total
rainfall. Expect higher amounts of precipitation at higher
elevations.

There is also some notable cooler air coming in behind the front.
850 mb temps drop down to 0 degC in this cooler air mass which
will have two effects on the panhandle. One will be a chance of
stronger showers with possible thunderstorms in the Gulf and along
the outer coast this afternoon and tonight. The second effect of
the cooler air is a drop in snow levels for Tuesday and beyond.
Snow levels will drop to 3,500 to 4,000 feet by Tuesday, thus the
higher mountain tops will likely see some snow at some point
Tuesday into Tuesday night. No snowfall anticipated at pass level.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday as of 10 pm Sunday/
The long term period starts with weak ridging over the gulf moving
over the panhandle by Wednesday night as the next storm systems
enter the picture. Showers will continue on Wednesday with onshore
flow. After that, models are showing two surface lows entering
the gulf, one developing off Kodiak Island, the other piece of
energy developing in the south-central gulf. The 00z model runs
show some agreement that the lows will consolidate in the central
gulf and slide southeast. However, location and evolution of this
complex system is different amongst the deterministic models and
ensemble members. There is high confidence that the northern gulf
coast will get wet (think Yakutat to Cross Sound) - though not
excessively wet with 48-hour totals around 1.5 inches for
Wednesday and Thursday. As the system consolidates and shifts
southeast through Friday, model differences in location and
timing lead to uncertainty in the precip forecast for the area.
The best chances are over the gulf, along the coast, and the
southern half of the panhandle, but a broad brush of NBM was used
for PoP. Winds with this system look to be high-end small craft to
marginal gale over the outside waters.

After this system exits Saturday, a brief respite is expected
with some breaks in the clouds possible on Saturday. The break
will be short lived with onshore flow taking over and precip
returning to the panhandle on Sunday with the next wave. The next
impactful storms are on the horizon for the beginning of next
week, with hints of a cold, deep system affecting the forecast
area. Something to keep an eye on, as models are hinting at 850mb
temps across the northern half of the panhandle around -5C. This
could be the coldest air of the season so far.

Overall forecast confidence is average through Thursday and below
average after that.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ018.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-031-034-036-041>043-051-052.

&&

KRT/EAL/BFL

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