Gale Warning 6, NWS Juneau, AK

855 
FZAK67 PAJK 151327
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
427 AM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-160730-
427 AM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force low over the eastern gulf will dissipate on Friday.
A ridge will build in over the Panhandle Friday night. A gale
force front will enter the eastern gulf from the west early on 
Saturday. 

$$

PKZ310-160730-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
427 AM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 40 kt late. Seas 18 ft. 
Rain late.
.SAT...SE gale to 45 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.MON...W gale to 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.TUE...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

847 
FZAK67 PAJK 160034
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
334 PM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-161845-
334 PM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A weak ridge will move over the panhandle tonight. A storm force 
front will pass through the gulf and reach the coast on Saturday. 
The front will weaken Saturday night with a weak ridge building 
Sunday. A gale force low moves into the gulf Sunday night. 

$$

PKZ310-161845-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
334 PM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt late. Seas 20 ft. Rain
late. 
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE gale to 45 kt late. Seas
19 ft. SW swell in the evening. Rain late. 
.MON...W gale to 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.TUE...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

973 
FZAK67 PAJK 161304
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
404 AM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-170715-
404 AM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A storm force front will pass through the gulf and reach the 
coast on Saturday. The front will weaken Saturday night with a 
weak ridge building Sunday. A gale force low moves into the gulf 
Sunday night. 

$$

PKZ310-170715-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
404 AM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 16 ft. S 
swell in the evening.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt late. Seas
16 ft. SW swell in the evening. Showers late. 
.MON...W storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.TUE...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

502 
FZAK67 PAJK 170039
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-171845-
339 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A weakening gale force front lifts NE into the Panhandle Sat
night. A weaker front crosses the gulf into the Panhandle Sun 
morning. A ridge of high pressure develops across the Inner 
Channels Sun afternoon and persists through Sun night. A storm 
force front approaches Southeast Alaska on Mon. 

$$

PKZ310-171845-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
339 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 17 ft. S swell 
in the evening.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE gale to 40 kt late. Seas
19 ft. SW swell in the evening. Rain showers late. 
.MON...S storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain in the
morning. 
.MON NIGHT...SW gale to 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.TUE...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

166 
FZAK67 PAJK 171229
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
329 AM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-180630-
329 AM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A ridge of high pressure develops across the Inner Channels Sun 
afternoon and persists through Sun night. A storm force front 
approaches Southeast Alaska from the west on Mon. 

$$

PKZ310-180630-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
329 AM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 50 kt late. Seas 18 ft. SW 
swell in the evening. Rain showers late. 
.MON...S storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain in the
morning. 
.MON NIGHT...SW gale to 40 kt. Seas 27 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
640 AM AKST Thu Jan 14 2021

.SHORT TERM...A storm force low is moving into the gulf and
bringing a strong low level jet and associated moisture into the
panhandle today.

High wind warnings remain in place for Baranof Island and Western
Prince of Wales island. Moisture associated with this system will
likely stay as rain for most locations, the one significant
exception will be the Haines and Klondike Highways where a Winter
Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory have be issued.
Confidence is lowest concerning snowfall amounts at the higher
elevations of the highways. Models continue to show a wide spread
of snowfall amounts for these system due to significant
differences in snow levels. Have stayed similar to previous
forecast runs.

On Friday pressure will relax and moisture will continue to
stream across the panhandle as the parent low pressure system
moves north. Weak induced ridging will develop ahead of the next
weather system that will move into the area late Friday into
Saturday.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday night/...The parade of
storms continues into the long range with multiple systems moving
into the gulf through the middle of next week. The period begins
with an upper low in the western Gulf Saturday afternoon. The
upper low then retrogrades northwest and becomes absorbed in the
upper flow as broad ridging and onshore flow dominate the eastern
Gulf Sunday through early Monday. By the middle of next week,
models and ensembles all indicate a potential pattern change as
upper level ridging builds over the gulf and much of the state
bringing an end to the parade of storms.

At the surface, a low moves northward towards Kodiak Island while
swinging a gale force front into the Panhandle on Saturday.
Southwesterly flow sets up behind the front through Sunday before
the next low moves up into the western gulf on Monday. After the
early week front pushes through, a building ridge in the gulf will
switch the overall flow around to the northwest. A weak wave
within the flow may pass by on Wednesday before a building high
moves into the area, ushering in the start of the much needed
pattern change.

The sensible weather pattern will continue to be wet, as is
typical for this time of the year, with locally heavy precipitation
associated with the passage of each frontal system. The general
onshore pattern will provide for continued warmer (relatively
speaking) air such that precip type will be predominantly rain for
lower elevations except the higher elevations along the Haines
and Klondike Highways. A drying trend begins mid next week as flow
becomes northwesterly and eventually offshore with the building
ridge. (First sunny day of the year?!)

Overall model agreement is good through Monday then begins to
diverges some by mid next week regarding the potential wave
passing by on Wednesday and the evolution of the building ridge in
the gulf. Despite some model differences, there is still good
agreement in the models and ensembles of the general weather
pattern. Used a blend of WPC/EC/GFS for winds and timing of the
fronts then trended towards WPC for the latter part of the long
term. Overall forecast confidence remains at or above average
through the period.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 9 AM AKST this morning through this evening for
     AKZ026.
     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM AKST this
     evening for AKZ023-027.
     Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through this afternoon
     for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ023-
     027.
     Strong Wind from noon AKST today through this evening for AKZ017-
     025.
     Strong Wind from 9 AM AKST this morning through this evening for
     AKZ022-028.
     Strong Wind from 9 AM AKST this morning through this afternoon
     for AKZ021.
     Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM AKST Friday
     for AKZ019.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM AKST
     Friday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ022-031-033>036.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-032-053.

&&

Suk/JDR

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