Gale Warning 298, NWS Juneau, AK

720 
FZAK52 PAJK 101239
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 AM AKST Fri Dec 10 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-110645-
339 AM AKST Fri Dec 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front along the central Inner Channels presses E
across the southern Inner Channels this morning and into BC this
afternoon. Its parent low remains in the western gulf through
tonight before entering the central gulf Sat. A weak low enters
the SE gulf tonight and reaches the central Panhandle Sat
morning. 

$$

PKZ041-110645-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
339 AM AKST Fri Dec 10 2021

...GALE WARNING EARLY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. W swell. Rain and snow 
showers. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-110645-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
339 AM AKST Fri Dec 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 20 ft. Rain in 
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft. W swell. Rain and snow 
showers late. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-110645-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
339 AM AKST Fri Dec 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft building to 24 ft. Rain and snow showers in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt late. Seas 18 ft. W
swell. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 14 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-110645-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
339 AM AKST Fri Dec 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft building to 24 ft. Rain and 
snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt late. Seas 17 ft. SW
swell. Snow and rain showers in the evening. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-110645-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
339 AM AKST Fri Dec 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. Rain showers in
the evening. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building to
11 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

778 
FZAK52 PAJK 110039
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 PM AKST Fri Dec 10 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-111845-
339 PM AKST Fri Dec 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
An area of low pressure will slowly slide southeast into the gulf
through Saturday night. A second, smaller short wave moves 
through the southern panhandle Saturday night. 

$$

PKZ041-111845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
339 PM AKST Fri Dec 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. W swell. Rain showers and
snow showers. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. Snow showers in
the morning. Rain showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft. W swell. Snow
showers in the evening. Rain showers. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. W swell. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-111845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
339 PM AKST Fri Dec 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 22 ft
subsiding to 16 ft late. W swell in the evening. Rain showers and
snow showers late. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. Snow showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. W swell. Rain showers
and snow showers. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. W swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-111845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
339 PM AKST Fri Dec 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt late. Seas 23 ft
subsiding to 16 ft late. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 14 ft. W swell. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SUN...NE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-111845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
339 PM AKST Fri Dec 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt late. Seas 22 ft
subsiding to 15 ft late. Rain showers and snow showers in the
evening. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-111845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
339 PM AKST Fri Dec 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 13 ft late. Snow
showers early in the evening. Rain showers in the evening. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
259 PM AKST Thu Dec 9 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Thursday night through Friday night/...the weather
today has been a little calmer when compared to yesterday. A
brief shortwave moved over the panhandle early in the day and it
dropped a quick couple inches, according to morning reports. We
measured 2 inches here at the office the back of the valley. The
rest of the day had rain showers and snow showers scattered around
the panhandle.

Going forward, another round of winter weather is in store for SE
AK. And as such, Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories have been
issued. An area of low pressure near south-central AK and
associated warm and cold fronts are moving towards the panhandle.
As the warm fronts approaches the area, temps tonight should warm
overnight due to warm air moving in. Shortly after the warm front
clears the area, the cold front will being to track through, so
temps for most of the panhandle will likely fall throughout Friday
and into Friday night.

This back and forth with temperatures will lower confidence on
when snow-to-rain and rain-to-snow transitions will happen,
especially in this area where micro-climate zones can make or
break a forecast. But the overall idea is the potential for at
least a rain/snow mix will make it far enough north so that areas
along the coast and areas along and south of Icy Strait could see
a rain/snow mix or rain between 9PM tonight and 3AM Friday
morning. From 3AM and on, cold air will track north to south,
switching any rain or rain/snow mix back to snow by late Friday.

Heaviest snowfall rates look to happen during the nighttime so
Friday morning commutes would be impacted by the fresh snow. The
rest of Friday should see snow rates diminish as the panhandle
enters into a more showery pattern. Friday night temperatures
will cool till they bottom out in the 20s late Friday night.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday as of 3pm
Thursday/...After the heaviest precipitation moves out Friday,
expect snow showers, much colder temperatures, and outflow winds
to begin in the mid-range.

All locations across the panhandle should change back to snow
late Friday. Snow showers will remain through Sunday morning,
resulting in variable amounts across the panhandle. Areas to
watch for advisory level snow include Sitka, Klawock, Ketchikan,
and surrounding areas. Then a break in the clouds and clear skies
are likely at the start of the week.

As this surface low moves along SE along the coast, a strong
pressure gradients will result in outflow winds, with the
strongest gusts expected in the Northern Lynn region late
Saturday. Gusty conditions may lead to gale warnings in the inner
channels this weekend. Models are leaning towards drying out the
panhandle from north to south starting as early as Saturday in the
Northern Lynn once the outflow winds begin. Widespread dry
conditions are expected by late Sunday and will stick around
through Tuesday.

Temperatures will drop significantly through the weekend. The
forecast anticipates the highest temperature during the mid-term
to occur Friday morning. Once areas reach the high for that day,
expect a consistent decrease in temperatures through the weekend
and into the start of next week. Gusty conditions from the
outflow event will help to keep some locations in the Northern
Lynn warmer than model guidance. Looking at the long-term, the
trend seems to continue for December 13 - 17, the CPC is
indicating that we will likely remain below normal for
temperatures.

Focused changes were made to the mid-range forecast today. This
included continuing the dry trend into Tuesday, because chances of
precipitation move back in late Tuesday night. Spent most of the
time focused on the snow amounts in the southern panhandle.
Warning level snowfall is not likely at this time, but advisory
level from the short-waves off the low pressure sitting the gulf
is likely.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon AKST
     Friday for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through late tonight for
     AKZ020-023-025.
     Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST Friday
     for AKZ029.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon AKST Friday
     for AKZ018-019.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST Friday for AKZ017.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM this evening to midnight AKST tonight for
     AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-031-033-034-036-041-043-051-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-032-035-042-053.

&&

GJS/KRT

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