Gale Warning 224, NWS Juneau, AK

705 
FZAK51 PAJK 181451 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
651 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-190300-
651 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A high end gale force front over the central Gulf  will stall
over the far eastern Gulf by Monday afternoon and begin
weakening Tuesday afternoon.  

$$

PKZ011-190300-
Glacier Bay-
651 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ012-190300-
Northern Lynn Canal-
651 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft subsiding to 2 ft or less late.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt late. Seas building
to 3 ft late.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-190300-
Southern Lynn Canal-
651 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.REST OF TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt, except 20 kt near Funter Bay. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt, except 20 kt near Funter Bay. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 20 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ021-190300-
Icy Strait-
651 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 25 kt overnight. Strongest winds W
of Point Adolphus. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ022-190300-
Cross Sound-
651 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-190300-
Stephens Passage-
651 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt, except E 20 kt near Young Bay. Gusts to 35
kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Young Bay and Taku
Inlet. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Young Bay and Taku Inlet.
Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Young Bay and Taku
Inlet. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ032-190300-
Northern Chatham Strait-
651 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ033-190300-
Southern Chatham Strait-
651 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas
building
to 14 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 10 ft, except 16 ft
near ocean entrances. S swell. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft, except 15 ft near ocean
entrances. S swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft, except 14 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 9 ft. 



$$

PKZ034-190300-
Frederick Sound-
651 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 20 kt in the morning. Gusts 
to 35 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 4 ft in the morning.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
4 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 2 ft or less. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ035-190300-
Sumner Strait-
651 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming S in the morning. Gusts to 40 kt. 
Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 12 ft
near ocean entrances. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt in
the evening. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 12 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft, except
11 ft near ocean entrances. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3
ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

PKZ036-190300-
Clarence Strait-
651 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 
ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

892 
FZAK51 PAJK 190002
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
402 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-191715-
402 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A high end gale force front over the eastern Gulf will remain 
mostly stationary and begin weakening Tuesday afternoon. The front
will then move NE into the panhandle on Wed and Wed night 
continuing to weaken. Outlook. Another gale force low moves into 
the eastern gulf from the S on Fri. 

$$

PKZ011-191715-
Glacier Bay-
402 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-191715-
Northern Lynn Canal-
402 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-191715-
Southern Lynn Canal-
402 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Higher gusts near Point
Couverden.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Higher gusts near Point Couverden.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-191715-
Icy Strait-
402 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-191715-
Cross Sound-
402 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-191715-
Stephens Passage-
402 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-191715-
Northern Chatham Strait-
402 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-191715-
Southern Chatham Strait-
402 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft, except 16 ft
near ocean entrances. S swell.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft, except 16 ft 
near ocean entrances. S swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft, except 13 
ft near ocean entrances. S swell. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft, except
12 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-191715-
Frederick Sound-
402 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-191715-
Sumner Strait-
402 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 12 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 12 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft, except
10 ft near ocean entrances. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near 
ocean entrances. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-191715-
Clarence Strait-
402 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
205 PM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Tuesday night /...As we turn the page on
this sunnier Sunday, we go into the work week which will be very
different than this weekend.

Reviewing the afternoon satellite imagery, clear skies are
apparent over the panhandle but a front is moving into the central
gulf with thick clouds ahead of it. So clouds should increase
from west to east tonight, giving the area cloudy skies for
Monday. While clouds are likely, precip is not. The front’s
eastward advance is still expected to stall out over the eastern gulf,
so over land areas, only along the coast has a small (10-20%)
chance to see light rain tomorrow.

Monday night into Tuesday, the front could get pushed north so
areas along the coast and in the northern panhandle have a chance
to see some rain but the front’s main push inland looks to
happen on Wednesday.

Temperatures will warm up slightly over the next couple of days.
Lows tonight will range from the 20s to low 30s in the north, to
the mid to upper 30s in the central and south. But by Tuesday
night, lows will be warmer across the board, in the 30s to 40s.
Monday’s highs will mostly be in the 40s, 40s to near 50 are
expected on Tuesday.

Winds will increase as the front moves in as well. Tonight’s
winds will increase along the coast and gulf winds to around 25 to
45 kts. Inner channel winds will slowly increase to 10 to 15 kts,
up to 25 kts at ocean entrances. Land area winds may increase to
around 10 to 20 mph in the southern areas but the central and
northern area winds will remain lighter, at around 5-10 mph or
less.

Monday’s winds will remain elevated at the speeds mentioned
above. That being said, strong wind headlines have been put in the
forecast for Monday afternoon for Port Alexander and Hydaburg for
wind gusts up to 40 mph.. Sitka and Craig may see some stronger
wind gusts but confidence is lower so these areas were not
included in the Strong Wind headline.

Winds will stay elevated at the speeds mentioned above through
Monday night but should decrease Tuesday and Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday as of 10PM Saturday/...Winds
over the Gulf will begin to subside from the strong storm-force
front, which will be lingering offshore, and associated low begin
to progressively weaken to Gale and lower values through midweek.
The pressure gradient progressively relaxes through this
timeframe. That low will move ashore near the Anchorage area
midweek. Some gusty winds with strong wind headlines look to occur
over land areas along the Outer Coast while the front remains
near shore. Some small craft to Gale- force winds look to occur
over the Inner Channels near ocean entrances. QPF values from this
system look to be relatively non-impactful as the front remains
offshore along with the bulk of the precipitation. Precipitation
looks like it will not begin to occur farther inland over the
rest of the Panhandle until Wednesday morning as a wave rides up
the front and systems to the west finally push the frontal system
over the Panhandle.

A low moves up into the eastern Gulf from the south for the latter
half of the week, which may bring gusty winds with strong wind
headlines for the southern Outer Coast and southern Inner Channels
as it's tighter pressure gradient moves by. This system looks to
spread more more appreciable rainfall amounts into the Panhandle,
especially for the south. It looks like it will have a fairly long
equatorward fetch of deep moisture to work with. Model forecast
IVT, PW, and 700mb RH values represent this well enough through
the end of the work week.

Temperatures remain relatively non-impactful for the entirety of
the long-term forecast period. Model forecast 850mb temperatures
and wind indicate that warm air will advect into the area in the
vicinity of the aforementioned low pressure systems and remain
over Southeast Alaska through the period. MOS guidance agrees well
with this. Therefore, the warming that is brought into our high
and low temperature forecasts will remain through the period. The
parts of the Panhandle that look to have low temperatures cold
enough to support wintry precipitation will remain dry during that
timeframe, due to the initial aforementioned front stalling out
offshore. As the precipitation moves in, temperatures will have
already been warming. So, it looks like we will get lucky, there.
The only areas that look like they might get some minor snow
accumulation during the overnight hours as the precipitation moves
in are near the Canadian border crossing roads along the Klondike
Highway near White Pass and near Haines Border Customs. For the
remainder of the Panhandle, both high and low temperatures look
to stay above freezing values.

Forecast confidence remains above average for the first half of
the long-term forecast period and average to below average for the
last half of the period due to considerable model disagreement on
the exact track and strength of the late-week system and the
subsequent system.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ023.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-035-036-053.

&&

GJS/JLC

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