Gale Warning 220, NWS Juneau, AK

540 
FZAK51 PAJK 131542 AAB
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
742 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-140315-
742 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A weak area of low pressure pushes into the NE Gulf Coast while
a front moves into the Panhandle Wednesday morning.  Lower
pressure will remain in the northern gulf through the week.
Another weak wave of low pressure moves into the far Southern 
Panhandle Thursday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ011-140315-
Glacier Bay-
742 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ012-140315-
Northern Lynn Canal-
742 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-140315-
Southern Lynn Canal-
742 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ021-140315-
Icy Strait-
742 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.REST OF TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ022-140315-
Cross Sound-
742 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Rain showers. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. S swell. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-140315-
Stephens Passage-
742 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Strongest winds near Young Bay. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ032-140315-
Northern Chatham Strait-
742 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 25 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ033-140315-
Southern Chatham Strait-
742 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 25 kt in the morning, then becoming
SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft, except 13 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 12 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers late. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 13 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 12 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to
8 ft. 



$$

PKZ034-140315-
Frederick Sound-
742 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers late. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ035-140315-
Sumner Strait-
742 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft, except 10 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean 
entrances. Showers.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ036-140315-
Clarence Strait-
742 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft, except 13 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers late. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Near ocean
entrances, seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft, except 11 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building
to 9 ft. 



$$

372 
FZAK51 PAJK 140623 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
321 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-141530-
321 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
Lower pressure remains in the northern gulf keeping onshore flow
through late week. Another weak wave of low pressure moves into
the far Southern Panhandle Thursday afternoon. Outlook, an area
of low pressure moves through the southern gulf Friday.  

$$

PKZ011-141530-
Glacier Bay-
321 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-141530-
Northern Lynn Canal-
321 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt.
Seas 4 ft increasing to 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt decreasing to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 4
ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft then 2 ft or 
less. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-141530-
Southern Lynn Canal-
321 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 5 
ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-141530-
Icy Strait-
321 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-141530-
Cross Sound-
321 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-141530-
Stephens Passage-
321 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 ft.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-141530-
Northern Chatham Strait-
321 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-141530-
Southern Chatham Strait-
321 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 12 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 11 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 10 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 7 ft near 
ocean entrances. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to
5 ft. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-141530-
Frederick Sound-
321 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-141530-
Sumner Strait-
321 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-141530-
Clarence Strait-
321 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 
11 ft subsiding to 7 ft late. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building
to 5 ft. 
.MON...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
306 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Thursday night / Second wrap and the upper
level trough are moving across the panhandle this afternoon and
evening. A burst of gusty winds into the panhandle and marine
sites and exposed coastal communities is leading to land gusts to
45 mph into this evening, while, some marine sites early still
gale force although those will be weakening through the evening.

Snow level near White pass is expected about 2000-2500 feet, and
with southerly flow moisture will continue to flow upslope the
pass area. Snow level may creep up the pass to near pass level
overnight. Snow forecast is in lower confidence fields for the
next 24 to 36 hours, but put about 4 inches into the forecast near
the pass for Tuesday night. Will be issuing a winter advisory to
cover the pass snow accumulations.

Shower activity will continue through Tuesday night but will
begin diminish some overnight. The next trough is moving across
the western gulf, and will be approaching the coast early
Wednesday morning around daybreak. Zonal flow aloft will be
rushing systems east across he gulf quickly. Rains from the new
trough will spread across the panhandle Wednesday.

The zonal flow will continue over the gulf so should see more
troughs and bands of showers to the weekend overall. Another
weather feature is forecast for Thursday so that will be the next
band of organized precipitation.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday night/...This extended range
forecast begins with an upper ridge situated over Southeast Alaska
and an upper trough over the Gulf of Alaska both features are
quite deep and extend down to the surface. In particular, the
upper trough is associated with a front that will be the first
weather system to affect Southeast Alaska in this long range
forecast. In fact, precipitation from the front will begin in the
latter part of the short term period, but it is becoming hard to
distinguish between them, moving over the forecast area in such
quick succession as they are. The details on the Thursday event
lie in what appears to be a developing that will be carried to the
northeast and then merge with the existing frontal boundary. The
southern third of the Panhandle will see some heavy precipitation from
this, but the heaviest will fall farther south over British
Columbia. The next in this series of lows will enter the western
Gulf on Friday and the occluded front should reach the outer
coast by Friday evening. And after that, another on Monday.

At this time of the year, temperatures, and in particular,
overnight lows, get a lot of scrutiny with respect to freezing and
the attendant phase change from rain to snow. Herein lies the
primary forecast challenge for this extended range forecast. There
is good agreement amongst the models for colder low level air to
advect in from the west through the weekend and model spectrum
spread charts show similar information. MOS guidance for
temperatures does not really reflect this though. That being said,
there is no low elevation snow in this extended range forecast,
but this is clearly the lowest confidence portion of the forecast
due to the differences between temps in the charts and in the
tables.

At the time of this writing, the Thursday front looks like it will
manifest itself with only small craft winds over the southern
inner channels. The same is true for the Friday evening front. The
Monday front, on the other hand, looks as if it will be a high
end gale event over the eastern Gulf with the potential for small
craft winds over the central inner channels and gales over the
southern inner channels. Winds during this time frame were
increased a fair bit, but may need to be increased again as we get
closer to the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...Band of gale force winds on the south side of the
weakening low in the northeast gulf are moving to the coast and
inland for late this afternoon. Just small craft level winds and
seas to impact the forecast tonight and into Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Minor Flooding was anticipated in the Ward Lake
Recreational area for early today so a flood advisory was issued to
6 pm water levels are falling at Carlanna Lake so expired the
advisory. Precipitation over the next 24 to 48 hours will not be
as significant. The moisture about second wrap is pushing through
the panhandle

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ020-021-023-025.
     Areal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ028.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind from 7 PM AKDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ042-043-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-041-051>053.

&&

Bezenek/Fritsch

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