Gale Warning 201, NWS Juneau, AK

946 
FZAK67 PAJK 171037
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
237 AM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-180445-
237 AM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A weak surface ridge over the eastern Gulf will shift southeast
through Sunday. A high end gale force front over the central
Gulf on Sunday afternoon will stall over the far eastern Gulf by
Monday afternoon and begin weakening Tuesday afternoon.   

$$

PKZ310-180445-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
237 AM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. SW swell early in the 
morning.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft building to 23 ft late.
Rain.
.MON...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 45 kt diminishing to gale to 35 kt
late. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE gale to 45 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 23 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

062 
FZAK67 PAJK 172331
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
331 PM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-181745-
331 PM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A weak surface ridge over the Panhandle will shift southeast 
through Sunday night. A high end gale force front over the central
Gulf will stall over the far eastern Gulf by Monday afternoon and
begin weakening Tuesday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ310-181745-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
331 PM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 20
ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

811 
FZAK67 PAJK 181039
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
239 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-190445-
239 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A high end gale force front over the central Gulf will stall over
the far eastern Gulf by Monday afternoon and begin weakening 
Tuesday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ310-190445-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
239 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 30 ft. S swell. Rain in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 15 kt. Seas 19 ft. S swell. Rain in the evening. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

591 
FZAK67 PAJK 182335
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
335 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-191745-
335 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A high end gale force front over the eastern Gulf will remain 
mostly stationary and begin weakening Tuesday afternoon. The front
will then move NE into the panhandle on Wed and Wed night 
continuing to weaken. Outlook. Another gale force low moves into 
the eastern gulf from the S on Fri. 

$$

PKZ310-191745-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
335 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft. 
Rain in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. SE swell. Rain in the
evening. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SE swell. 
.WED NIGHT...Wind variable less than 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SE
swell. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

623 
FZAK67 PAJK 191136
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
336 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-200545-
336 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A high end Gale force front over the eastern Gulf will remain 
mostly stationary and begin weakening Tue afternoon. The front 
will then move northeastward into the Panhandle on Wed and Wed 
night while continuing to weaken. Outlook: Another Gale force low 
moves into the eastern Gulf from the south starting Thu night. 

$$

PKZ310-200545-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
336 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 23 ft 
subsiding to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. SE swell. Rain.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SE swell. 
.WED NIGHT...Wind variable less than 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SE
swell. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

642 
FZAK67 PAJK 192343
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
343 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-201745-
343 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A stationary gale force front over the eastern gulf will begin
weakening Tue night. A low will develop along the  front near
Haida Gwaii Tue night and move NW along the front  through Wed
afternoon. The weakened front will then move into the  panhandle
behind the low on Wed. Outlook: Another Gale force low  moves
into the eastern Gulf from the south starting Thu night.  

$$

PKZ310-201745-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
343 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt late. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 35 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SE swell. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 13 ft in the
afternoon. SE swell in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. SE swell. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

008 
FZAK67 PAJK 201205
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
405 AM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-210615-
405 AM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force low west of the Dixon Entrance will move northwest
to Prince William Sound by Wednesday night. Outlook: Another Gale
force low will move over the eastern Gulf from the south on 
Thursday night. 

$$

PKZ310-210615-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
405 AM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 13 ft 
subsiding to 9 ft late. S swell in the evening. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9
ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

908 
FZAK67 PAJK 202338
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-211745-
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force low in the northern gulf will move to Prince William
Sound by Wednesday night. Another storm force low will move into 
the eastern Gulf from the south on Thursday night and then track 
up the outer coast through Fri evening. A second gale force low 
will track N through the central gulf late Fri night. 
 

$$

PKZ310-211745-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
338 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing late. Seas 13 ft subsiding to
9 ft late. SE swell in the evening. 
.THU...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 12 ft in
the afternoon. SE swell in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft.
SE swell. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
223 PM AKDT Sat Oct 16 2021

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Monday night/...The short term forecast
begins with a 500 mb trough and associated surface low moving
eastward. Some showers are possible around southern POW Island and
the Ketchikan/Metlakatla area. As the area of low pressure moves
eastward, these showers will become fewer in number and eventually
fade out. Elsewhere around the Panhandle, skies will be clear and
quite. Have kept fog in the forecast for some areas of the
panhandle due to fog forming last night, the abundance of clear
skies, and low tide will happen overnight again. Temperatures
tonight will cool to the 20s to near 30 in areas that will have
clear skies, slightly warmer 30s will be found the in south where
cloud cover will keep temperatures slightly warmer. If clouds
clear out faster than expected, temperatures could dip cooler than
expected.

Sunday will have a ridge build and pass over SE AK so Sunday is
looking like a nice day overall with most of the panhandle seeing
mostly sunny to sunny skies. That being said, clouds will slowly
increase from west to east as the next weather system and
associated front moves into the gulf. Sunday’s afternoon highs
will reach the 40s around the area.

Turning the page on the weekend and going into the next week will
bring back the active weather pattern. An area of low pressure is
expected to move into the gulf Sunday night, then sit and spin
over the gulf through Monday. This ‘sit and spin’ pattern will
slow the front’s easterly advance into the Panhandle. So rain
chances over land areas don’t really start going up until
Tuesday afternoon or later.

This slow progression inland would mean Monday will play out dry
but cloudy. Monday morning temps look to be in the 30s, thanks to
overnight cloud cover, and afternoon temps look to be in the 40s,
some near 50 degree highs are possible in the southern half of the
panhandle.

On a more specific side-note - there is evidence of breezy winds
in downtown Juneau and around Douglas Island Monday into Monday
night. It looks like a synoptically driven mountain wave, nothing
too extreme but breezy winds with stronger wind gusts have been
included in the forecast.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday as of 10PM Friday/...The
front that we have been referring to for a few days will be
located over the eastern Gulf for Monday, the beginning of the
long-term forecast period, and linger just offshore over the
eastern Gulf into the middle of next week. We have updated the
winds to storm-force along the front poised over the eastern Gulf,
just off the outer coast. Peak winds look to occur Monday
evening. Winds over the Inner Channel waters look to get up to
borderline low-end Gale near ocean entrances and to around 15 to
25 knots elsewhere over the inner channels.

The aforementioned early-week storm-force frontal system has an
impressively long fetch of deep moisture originating from around
the tropical Pacific. Model forecast PW, IVT values well over
1,000 kg/(ms), and 700mb RH values indicate that this is a rather
potent atmospheric river. Luckily, the majority of the
precipitation looks to be aimed offshore over the open Gulf waters
with this system as it lingers off the coast.

If this system ends up taking a jog in its track 100 to 200 miles
to the east and linger over the Panhandle, it will be a rather
impactful system with regard to rainfall accumulation and wind
over southeast Alaska.

Another low looks to approach the eastern Gulf from the south for
late week into the weekend. There is considerable deterministic
model and ensemble member spread this evening with the track of
this system and any system after that. Therefore, we phased to WPC
for day 7(Thursday), onward, for the winds. Currently, it looks
like it may be a Gale force low that moves northward, just off
the coast, and progressively weakens as it moves northward and
makes landfall somewhere between Anchorage and Yakutat.

As for temperatures, highs warm into the middle 40s to middle 50s
throughout the Panhandle with the highest temperatures occurring
in the southern Panhandle for the duration of the long-term
forecast period. Overnight low temperatures gradually warm to
values primarily between the lower 30s to upper 40s for the period
with the warmest temperatures being toward the south toward the
latter half of the week. This is indicated via MOS guidance, 850mb
model forecast warm temperature advection moving toward the area,
and model forecast 1,000 to 850mb thickness values over the area
for the timeframe. This occurs with the southerly push out ahead
of the aforementioned weather systems as they approach the
forecast area.

Forecast confidence is above average for the first half and below
average for the 2nd half of the long-term forecast period, due to
variations in model agreement. A GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC solution was
used for the gridded forecast, tonight.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041>043-051.

&&

GJS/JLC

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