Gale Warning 147, NWS Juneau, AK

386 
FZAK52 PAJK 202337
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
337 PM AKDT Thu May 20 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-211745-
337 PM AKDT Thu May 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force weather front drifts into the eastern gulf Thursday 
night. The front will drift over the panhandle through Friday. 

$$

PKZ041-211745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
337 PM AKDT Thu May 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Seas building to 
8 ft late. Rain late. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 
ft. Rain in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-211745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
337 PM AKDT Thu May 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas building
to 9 ft in the evening. Rain late. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft. Rain in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-211745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
337 PM AKDT Thu May 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 11 ft. 
Rain late.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 KT in the afternoon. Seas 12 
ft. Rain in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-211745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
337 PM AKDT Thu May 20 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 13 ft. 
Rain late.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 
ft. Rain in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-211745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
337 PM AKDT Thu May 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the evening. Seas
building to 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 
ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

194 
FZAK52 PAJK 211156
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
356 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-220600-
356 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force weather front over the eastern gulf  will drift
over the panhandle through Friday. A low pressure  system over
the southwest gulf will drift northeast and weaken to be over
the north central gulf by Saturday afternoon.  

$$

PKZ041-220600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
356 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the late afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-220600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
356 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
10 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-220600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
356 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 becoming SE 20 kt late. Seas 8 ft. Showers 
late.

.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-220600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
356 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt decreasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell in the afternoon.
Showers in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-220600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
356 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming S 10 kt in the late afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Showers.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

122 
FZAK52 PAJK 212352
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
352 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-221800-
352 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low pressure system over the southwest gulf will weaken and
drift northeast to be over the north central gulf by Saturday 
afternoon. 

$$

PKZ041-221800-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
352 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-221800-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
352 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-221800-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
352 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers late. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-221800-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
352 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers in the
morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming N late. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-221800-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
352 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Showers.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming W late. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
258 PM AKDT Wed May 19 2021

SHORT TERM...A ridge of high pressure remains in place Wednesday
afternoon and weakens while being forced east and south by the
advancing weather front from the western gulf and parent low south
of the central Aleutians.

The main forecast challenge today has been the stubborn marine
layer, which has remained along the Outer Coast and through Cross
Sound, Glacier Bay, and Icy Strait this afternoon. Low level
westerly flow has kept the marine layer from retreating much
despite daytime heating; therefore have kept low clouds in the
forecast through tonight in the Coastal Waters and along the Outer
Coast. Expect the marine layer to slowly advance further inland
tonight through Chatham Strait and possible across POW Island
again. Currently think areas along the Coast Mountains will remain
mainly clear; however confidence is low regarding the inland
extent of the marine later. Low level flow becomes southeasterly
during the day Thursday as the ridge axis pushes east of the
region. Southeasterly flow should begin to push low clouds back
offshore during the day.

The ridge will give way to the advancing front Thursday and Friday.
Rain starts in the Yakutat area around midnight Thursday night,
the outer coastal areas Friday morning and inner channels by
Midday. Expect the rain to start around 10 am Friday morning. This
frontal system has a source region in the mid Pacific so there is
a larger collection of QPF to wring out as the front passes over
the land areas. Rainfall totals for Friday-Friday night range
between 0.5 and 1.5 inches. Enough to wet everything back down and
give another boost to streams and rivers, it however, should not
lead to any flooding issues.

Wind of 30 to 40 kt expected to develop along the front with the
strongest from Icy Bay westwards towards Middleton Island. Expect
brief gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph for coastal communities on
Friday as the front moves through.

Little changes were made to the forecast. Updates were made to
temps, sky cover, and winds for the first 24 hours of the
forecast.

LONG TERM.../Friday to Wednesday as of 10 pm Tuesday/ The long
term forecast opens with a front pushing into the panhandle. Rain
and wind will be the story of the day with breezy conditions along
the outer coast and in many marine areas. The northern and
central panhandle currently look to be the most favored areas
w/regards to total rainfall, though do not expect flooding to be a
major concern. Chances of rain linger through Saturday, though do
not expect QPF totals as significant as on Friday. By Sunday,
forecast uncertainty sharply increases. The increase in forecast
uncertainty lies in the movement of the Friday front's parent low.
The ensembles are split on whether the low will quickly jog to
the SE or if it will move at a slower clip through the area. A
faster speed would favor lower precipitation chances by Monday in
the N panhandle as the moisture associated with the system is
pushed off to the SE and the ridge over the Gulf rebuilds. A
slower moving system would keep lingering chances of precipitation
over much of the area for a longer period of time. Am leaning
towards the low departing sooner rather than later, given broad
run-to-run consistency, but the possibility that this could change
does exist. Tuesday meanwhile brings with it a separate concern-
the possibility of an easterly wave advancing into the panhandle.
Have included chances of precip centered around more southern
parts of the area as a result, though it must be noted that this
is a low confidence forecast. Forecast confidence is average
through Saturday before rapidly dropping.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM AKDT Thursday for
     AKZ019-025.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ043-051-052.

&&

CM/GFS

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