Gale Warning 122, NWS Juneau, AK

029 
FZAK52 PAJK 202348
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
348 PM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-211800-
348 PM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front impacts the Panhandle through Saturday night.
The associated low moves across the gulf towards  Cross Sound
through Sunday.  

$$

PKZ041-211800-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
348 PM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW late. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. W swell. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-211800-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
348 PM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW late. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. W swell. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt becoming W. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-211800-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
348 PM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-211800-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
348 PM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt early, then diminishing late.
Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming W late. Seas 10 ft. SW
swell. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. Rain and
snow. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-211800-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
348 PM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing late. Seas 11 ft. Snow and 
rain in the evening.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 9 ft. SW
swell. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. Snow.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt becoming NW. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

765 
FZAK52 PAJK 211122
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
322 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-220530-
322 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weakening low in the NE Gulf moves towards Cross Sound through
Sunday. Then a high pressure ridge tracks over the gulf through
Monday. 

$$

PKZ041-220530-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
322 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Rain showers in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-220530-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
322 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt becoming W. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-220530-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
322 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell.
Snow and rain showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-220530-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
322 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming W late. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-220530-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
322 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the morning, then
becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt becoming NW. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

198 
FZAK52 PAJK 212351
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
351 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-221800-
351 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weakening low in the NE Gulf moves towards Cross Sound through
Sunday night. High pressure builds over the gulf through Monday.
Another front moves E across the gulf Monday night. 

$$

PKZ041-221800-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
351 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt late. Seas 9 ft.
Rain late. 
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-221800-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
351 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt late. Seas 13 ft. SW 
swell.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas 10 ft.
Rain late. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-221800-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
351 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the evening. Seas 12
ft. SW swell.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas 10 ft.
Rain and snow late. 
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-221800-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
351 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming W in the evening. Seas 10 ft. SW
swell.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt late. Seas 8 ft.
Rain and snow late. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-221800-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
351 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell in the evening.
Rain and snow late. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
512 PM AKDT Fri Mar 19 2021

.UPDATE...QPF amounts from the GFS and ECMWF ensembles for the
Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning timeframe show about 0.5
inches of liquid for the Icy Strait corridor. During this period
the precipitation will be all snow (as mentioned in the short term
discussion), and since the highest precipitations rates will be
during the night and early morning, it will likely accumulate
rather than melt. A Winter Weather Advisory is now posted for the
Icy Strait corridor including Gustavus, Hoonah, Elfin Cove,
Pelican, and Juneau.

BFL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 248 PM AKDT Fri Mar 19 2021...

SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday/ The frontal band that moved through
the northern panhandle this morning has transitioned to the
southern half of the panhandle. Reported snow accumulations across
the north ranged from around 1 inch near Haines Customs to a
little over 6 inches at Pelican. The north is now dealing with
snow showers in the wake of the front coming in from the gulf.
These showers have been somewhat intense with visibilities
dropping to about a 1/2 mile at times, but they also have been
open cell in nature and move through rather quickly. Most areas of
the northern panhandle have been seeing more breaks in the clouds
rather then the showers as a result, and snow accumulations have
been light or its too warm for it to stick based on webcams.

Showers will linger through tonight especially in the southern
panhandle as what is left of the current system weakens and moves
off to the east. We get a break in the weather for late Fri night
and Sat morning and then the next front starts moving in for Sat
afternoon with more precip (rain and snow) and wind (gale for
northern gulf, small craft for other areas of the gulf and some
inner channel areas). Atmosphere over the panhandle looks cold
enough (850 mb temps below -6c initially, and 1000-850 mb
thicknesses below 1290) for precip to start as snow again for most
areas but southern areas will likely mix back to rain early on.
For the north, the low will be weakening as it comes in and will
be tracking across the central panhandle so a mix with rain north
of Angoon is unlikely Sat night. So expect accumulating snow for
the north Sat night with the highest accumulations (around 2 to 4
inches or possibly higher) likely along the Icy strait corridor
including Juneau. Precipitation and winds will begin to diminish
into Sunday as the system weakens and most inland.

Not many changes to the forecast overall as models in decent
agreement on timing and placement of features. Some uncertainly on
wind directions Fri evening (mainly in the Southern panhandle) and
on snow amounts for Sat night (snow amounts could end up being
higher and advisories may be needed).

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday night/...This extended range
forecast begins with a weak upper low situated over the eastern
Gulf and tracking east. To the south, a 150 kt jet will push the
low along and keep southeast Alaska on the cold side of the jet.
As the week progresses, upper flow remains relatively zonal until
Tuesday morning. At that time, a more amplified pattern moves
into the forecast area, with an upper ridge over the Panhandle and
a sharp, positively tilted trough upstream over Kodiak and the
far western Gulf. The trough passes over the Panhandle Tuesday
night, being pushed along by a broad northwesterly jet. By
Thursday afternoon, the jet over Southeast Alaska become very
zonal, but only temporarily. Another upper ridge moves over us by
Saturday morning, leaving Southeast Alaska on the warm side of the
jet at least for a little while.

At the surface, the long range forecast begins with an occluded
front draped over the Panhandle and emanating from a weakening
gale force low over the northeast Gulf. The front will push
through by late Sunday evening, but a mid level disturbance will
keep showers going over at least the northern half of the
Panhandle. By Tuesday morning, the next well organized front will
arrive over Southeast Alaska from the west. This system will be
just in the process of occluding as it arrives over the Panhandle
and the triple point will be located over the far southern
Panhandle, meaning that this will be a true warm frontal passage
over the inner channels. Model guidance this far out is divergent
on strength and track of the parent low, but landfall of the low
itself over the Panhandle is possible based on the EC and Canadian
solutions. Beyond that time, a surface high well to the south
will steer midlevel disturbances over the far northern Gulf, and
then southeast over the Panhandle. Stated differently, there are
no clear breaks in a generally wet/snowy pattern for the upcoming
week. -Fritsch/Cravens

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to noon AKDT Sunday
     for AKZ020>022-025.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-041>043-051-053.

&&

EAL/Fritsch/BFL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1211 AM AKDT SAT MAR 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HEAVY SNOW       ELFIN COVE              58.19N 136.35W
03/19/2021  M7.4 INCH        PKZ022             AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP IN ELFIN COVE MEASURED 7.4 INCHES OF
            SNOW. SNOW HAD BECOME INTERMITTENT AND MIXED
            WITH ICE PELLETS BY THE TIME OF MEASUREMENT.

0800 AM     HEAVY SNOW       HAINES                  59.23N 135.47W
03/19/2021  M5.9 INCH        HAINES             AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAINES COOP MEASURED 5.9 INCHES OF SNOW.
            SNOW BEGAN AROUND 2 AM AND WAS STILL SNOWING
            AT 8 AM MEASUREMENT.

&&