Wind Chill Watch 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

906 
WWAK41 PAFG 171223
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

AKZ203-180200-
/O.UPG.PAFG.WC.A.0003.210218T0600Z-210220T0000Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WC.W.0006.210218T0900Z-210219T2100Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
AKST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills to 65 below expected. These
  dangerously cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little
  as 10 minutes to exposed skin.

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Midnight Thursday to noon Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds are expected to increase tonight to 
  15-20mph, leading to the potential for dangerously cold wind 
  chills through Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Warning means the combination of very cold air and
sustained wind speeds of 15 mph or more will create dangerously
low wind chill values. Frost bite can occur quickly and even
hypothermia or death if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ204-180200-
/O.UPG.PAFG.WC.A.0003.210218T1200Z-210220T0000Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WC.W.0006.210218T1200Z-210219T2100Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO NOON AKST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills to 65 below expected. These
  dangerously cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little
  as 10 minutes to exposed skin.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...3 AM Thursday to noon Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds are expected to increase tonight to 
  15-20mph, leading to the potential for dangerously cold wind 
  chills through Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Warning means the combination of very cold air and
sustained wind speeds of 15 mph or more will create dangerously
low wind chill values. Frost bite can occur quickly and even
hypothermia or death if precautions are not taken.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
314 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Fairly active weather will continue over Northern Alaska most of
this week, before colder, drier air moves down from the Arctic
by the weekend. A broad swath of the Interior, including
Fairbanks, is currently seeing light snow, which will continue on
and off through Friday. Meanwhile, up on the North Slope, cold
temperatures with intermittent fog and stratus will continue
throughout the week, with dangerous wind chills possible along the
Beaufort Sea Coast Thursday and Friday. Outside of some gusty
northerly winds in the Bering Strait, the West Coast can expect
calm, cool weather this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
Aloft, a cold 496mb low is located just north of Pt Barrow and
slowly drifting south, while a vertically stacked low is
propagating west to east across the central Aleutians. This setup
is bringing that magical SW flow into the Interior, leading to a
broad swath of light snowfall. The Bering Strait is seeing some
gusty northerly winds and blowing snow, thanks to a tight pressure
gradient from the 988mb surface low in the central Aleutians, and
high pressure over Siberia. IR satellite imagery from this
afternoon is doing a great job at showing the contrast between
temperatures on the North Slope (-35F at Deadhorse), and the
cloudy, warmer spots of the Interior (10F at Fairbanks).

Model Discussion...
Overall, 12z models initialized well, but continued to be too
weak with high pressure in the Yukon, leading to stronger than
forecast winds in Eagle and Delta Junction. There is decent model
agreement on how the pattern will progress over the coming days.
Tonight through Wednesday, the low in the Aleutians will gradually
push east, temporarily switching the flow over the Interior to
southerly, leading to a break in the snow. Thursday into Friday,
that low will finally move east into the Gulf, while the low in
the arctic starts to dive south across the Brooks Range. This
will bring another round of snow to the Interior under SW flow
Thur-Fri, before the arctic trough covers most of Northern
Alaska, with cooler and drier weather late Friday into the
weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Light snow has been falling across areas north of a line from
Delta Junction to Eagle, with reports of 1-2" through 2PM. The
light snow will continue to fall overnight with another 1-2",
before the flow becomes southerly and the typical gap winds pick
up to sub-advisory strength on Wednesday. So, expect a break in
snow on Wednesday for most areas, especially from Fairbanks south.
Thursday into Friday, snow will pick up again across the entire
area, with another 1-2" expected. So overall, from Tuesday through
Friday, expect 3-6" in most areas. The one exception will be in
the Eastern Alaska Range from Black Rapids south, where 6-12" is
expected over the entire week. With the cloud cover, expect
around normal temperatures through Friday, but then falling over
the weekend under clearing skies.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Satellite imagery shows areas of fog and stratus, as well as cold
temperatures in clear spots (-25F to -35F). With these
temperatures, wind speeds of 5-10mph are easily leading to wind
chills of -50F or colder, especially along the Beaufort Sea Coast.
Unfortunately, these chilly surface temperatures will stick around
this week as H850 temperatures (currently around -25C today) will
drop to -28C to -30C on Wednesday, and stay that cold through
Friday. As the arctic trough deepens and begins to move east
Wednesday night, winds will strengthen along the Beaufort Sea
Coast, possibly leading to dangerous wind chills through Friday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Light snow is occuring in Interior areas south of Huslia, which
will continue on and off through Thursday. Overall, expect 2-4"
from today through Thursday. Some gusty northerly winds and
blowing snow are being observed through the Bering Strait, but
those winds will weaken on Wednesday. Otherwise, expect pleasant
weather through the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast Days 4 through 7...
The extended period begins on Saturday, with broad arctic
troughing covering most of Northern Alaska, which will persist
into early next week. So, expect dry conditions and colder than
normal temperatures throughout this period.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Watch for AKZ203-AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ226.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CULVER FEB 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

AKZ219>222-171600-
Upper Koyukuk Valley-Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
Central Interior-Middle Tanana Valley-
Including Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain,
Gobblers Knob, Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle,
Stevens Village, Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek,
Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Nenana,
Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs, Rampart,
Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
338 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

...Light Snow Expected to Linger Across the Interior...

Accumulating light snow will continue across the region through
Friday.

Between Tuesday night and early Friday, 2 to 4 inches of snowfall
is expected across much of the Central and Eastern Interior. This
is a multi-day event and will feature periods of on-and-off again
light snow. Areas southeast of Delta Junction will generally see
less than one inch of snow with this event.

By Friday, the snow is expected to move east into Canada. Below
average temperatures are anticipated for much of northern Alaska
this weekend following the snowfall.