Wind Chill Advisory 55, NWS Fairbanks, AK

897 
WWAK41 PAFG 130841
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1141 PM AKST Sun Dec 12 2021

AKZ204-130945-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WW.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-211213T0900Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
1141 PM AKST Sun Dec 12 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

AKZ206-130945-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0055.000000T0000Z-211213T0900Z/
Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, 
and Franklin Bluffs
1141 PM AKST Sun Dec 12 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
451 AM AKST Sun Dec 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow across most of the Interior will gradually taper off
through tonight, before temperatures plummet into the 20 to 40
below range for the first half of the week. Gusty winds leading to
blowing snow and cold wind chills in the Alaska and Brooks
Ranges, as well as the West Coast, will continue today but weaken
overnight, with cold temperatures to start the week as well.
Stormy and active weather will return to the West Coast and areas
of the Interior mid to late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
A deep longwave trough centered over the Alcan Border extends
from the high Arctic down into the Gulf of Alaska, with a 500 dam
stacked low in its base, just west of the Panhandle. This stacked
low in the Gulf is the source of moisture for the widespread cloud
cover and light snow over the eastern half of Northern Alaska.
The western half of Northern Alaska is under a stream of cold and
dry northwest flow, stuck between the longwave trough and an upper
level ridge that extends from the Pacific up into the western
Bering Sea. This cold and dry NW flow is leading to mostly clear
skies, gusty winds, and cold temperatures or wind chills along the
West Coast and in the Western Interior.

Model Discussion...
Models initialized well at 00Z/06Z, and are in good agreement on
how the pattern will progress over the next few days. From late
Sunday through Wednesday, the upper level ridge will continue to
be pushed east into the longwave trough by a strong shortwave and
associated surface low currently in the far western Bering Sea. As
the ridge pushes east it will flatten and slide along the base of
the now weaker, broad troughing over Northern Alaska, with the
shortwave following along behind it. This will spread that cold,
dry NW flow east across all of Northern Alaska through Wednesday,
while keeping that surface low (and all of its snow) south of the
Alaska Range. Models are in fair agreement on another, stronger
shortwave and surface low that will begin to move from the Bering
Sea into the West Coast of AK late Tuesday into Wednesday, but
some differences remain on the exact track. We went with a blended
approach to the forecast through Wednesday given the good model
agreement.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Light snow or flurries seen across the area this morning will
gradually taper off this evening and overnight as skies begin to
clear. The gusty northerly winds leading to cold wind chills and
blowing snow near the Alaska Range will also weaken this evening
and overnight. By Monday morning, most of the area will be under
mostly clear skies, resulting in temperatures plummeting into the
25 to 35 below range. It will remain cold through mid-week under
mostly clear skies, with temperatures staying in the 25 to 40
below range, so bundle up out there! The 'Tanana Valley Jet' winds
(from Dot Lake through Delta Junction) will increase a bit from
Monday evening through Tuesday, leading to the potential for very
cold wind chills in that area.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Strong northerly winds continue to lead to areas of blowing snow
and wind chills to 45 below along the coast this morning, but
conditions will improve through this evening as the winds weaken.
Under mostly clear skies and weaker winds, temperatures will cool
across the area tonight, dropping into the 25 to 40 below range
inland, and 10 to 25 below range along the coast. Temperatures
will remain this cold through mid-week under mostly clear skies. A
weakening front moving across the Bering Sea will briefly clip St
Lawrence Island and the southern Yukon Delta on Monday, bringing
some light snow and gusty northeast winds to those areas, which
may reduce visibility at times. A much stronger front will move
from the Bering Sea up across the West Coast Tuesday night and
Wednesday, potentially bringing widespread heavy snow, gusty
winds, and blizzard conditions to the area through Thursday. Stay
tuned for more updates on this storm.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Gusty winds and light snow or flurries continue across most of
the area this morning. The strongest winds are near the Brooks
Range, and along the Eastern Beaufort Sea, which are leading to
wind chills to 50 below and reduced visibility with blowing or
drifting snow. These winds will gradually weaken through this
evening, leading to improved conditions. From Monday through
mid-week, it will generally be calm and cold across the entire
area, with temperatures in the 20 to 40 below range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast Days 4 to 7...
From the middle of this week and into the weekend, conditions
across Northern Alaska will trend warmer and snowier as we move
into a more progressive upper level pattern. A strong winter
storm is expected to move into the West Coast and Western Interior
late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing heavy snow, gusty winds,
and potential blizzard conditions to those areas. As this front
moves inland Thursday and Friday it will bring warmer
temperatures and chances for snow across the Interior.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ217.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ245.
&&

CULVER DEC 21