Wind Chill Advisory 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

101 
WWAK41 PAFG 290604
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
904 PM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

AKZ201-292100-
/O.EXA.PAFG.WC.Y.0005.210129T0600Z-210129T2100Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
904 PM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills to 55 below occuring. The cold wind
  chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to
  exposed skin. 

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast from Point Lay west.

* WHEN...9 PM this evening to noon Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds are expected to decrease slightly,
  and wind chills become less severe, Friday afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ203-292100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-210129T2100Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
904 PM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills to 50 below expected. The cold wind
  chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to
  exposed skin. 

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...9 PM this evening to noon Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds are expected to decrease slightly,
  and wind chills become less severe, Friday afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

679 
WWAK41 PAFG 291949
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1049 AM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

AKZ201-203-292100-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-210129T2100Z/
Western Arctic Coast-Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, Cape Lisburne, Nuiqsut,
Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
1049 AM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
420 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather front rotating around a strong low pressure system in
the Central Bering Sea continues to push north and east through
the Bering Strait and the Western Interior. The front continues to
weaken and will bring generally 1 to 2 inches of snow to the
Western Interior and around an inch of snow as it moves into the
Central Interior today. Well below normal temperatures are
expected to push into Northern Alaska beginning late this weekend
and will continue well into next week.

Aloft at 500 mb...Ongoing pattern shift continues over Northern
Alaska with the strong ridge that has been located over the
Northern Pacific and Gulf of Alaska pushing east as a strong and
cold upper level trough digs rapidly south and east over Mainland
Alaska this weekend and into next week. The shortwave that is
bringing light snow and winds over the West Coast and Western
Interior today will continue to push to the east today and
tomorrow. Clouds and light snow associated with this system will
moderate temperatures today and tomorrow but as the upper level
longwave trough pushes south and east much a much colder airmass
will move into Northern Alaska. This airmass bring a return to
seasonal to below normal temperatures over the weekend and well
below normal temperatures for early next week and possibly
through the end of next week. 850 mb temperatures over Fairbanks
was around 11 below and similar temperatures are expected on
Friday, however 850 mb temperatures will begin to drop over the
weekend with 16 below expected on Saturday and around 22 below
expected on Sunday. Temperatures continue to drop Monday and
Tuesday with 26 to 30 below expected at 850 mb. This will
translate to much colder temperatures over Northern Alaska at the
surface. Low temperatures ranging between 25 and 40 below are
expected depending on cloud cover early next week.

Models....
The 28/00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Model
spread is reasonable in the short range however the entire model
suite continues to struggle with the upcoming pattern shift with
flip flops on magnitude of the cold airmass and how long it will
linger over Northern Alaska from model run to model run. The
general trend from model run to model run leans toward the colder
solutions and that the cold airmass will linger over Northern
Alaska through late next week. A weak upper level low is expected
to remain over Central Alaska and will likely generate mid and
upper level clouds which are expected to moderate surface
temperatures with only 20s and 30s below expected with coldest
spots reaching near 40 below vs widespread 30s and 40s below that
would occur with this airmass without clouds.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A weak surface low over the Mackenzie Delta combined with high
pressure near 80N and 160E will continue to produce light east
winds along with broken cloud cover and a few flurries for much of
the North Slope. Weather will remain generally benign over the
next few days, though expect a gradual increase in northeast winds
as the deep low pressure in the Central Bering Sea moves into the
eastern Bering Sea. Temperatures will assume a steady drop going
into the weekend, with some of the coldest temperatures of the
season to follow early next week. Will continue to monitor for low
wind chill values as winds continue and temperatures continue to
drop. Ongoing low Wind Chill values in zone 201 will improve this
afternoon but will likely approach Advisory levels again off and
on again through the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong weather front associated with a 976 mb low situated
in the Central Bering Sea continues to track north through the
Bering Strait and Seward Peninsula, and Western Interior. Low
visibilities in snow and blowing snow continue over the Bering
Strait where a Winter Weather Advisory continues through Midnight
Friday. Winds in the 40 to 50 mph range will continue along and
near the Bering strait. Strong wins are also expected to continue
along the Chukchi Sea Coast north of the Bering Strait through
Friday. The front continues to weaken as it pushes north and east
through the Western Interior where 1 to 2 inches of snow is
expected today and will taper off tonight.  Elevated areas of the
Kuskokwim Range could see 2 to 4 inches locally though Saturday.
Frigid temperatures are expected to follow beginning Sunday as
Arctic air spills southward.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Below average temperatures will begin to moderate late tonight
and Thursday as clouds and light snow associated with the
aforementioned front moves east out of the Western Interior. Light
snow will accompany the front as it tracks north of the Alaska
Range today into Friday, though accumulations will be minimal due
to weak southerly flow aloft. Expect seasonal temperatures
through the Saturday but a return to below normal temperatures
are expected across much of the Interior Sunday and early next
week and possibly into late next week. Mid and upper level clouds
will help moderate low temperatures over most of the Interior early
next week with temperatures expected to drop into the 25 to 35
below range with the coldest spots dropping to near 40 below.
Areas where clouds fail to develop or clear out for several hours
will likely see low temperatures in the 30s and 40s below range
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ201.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

JAN 21