Wind Chill Advisory 32, NWS Fairbanks, AK

395 
WWAK41 PAFG 211932
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1132 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

AKZ201-212045-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-210321T2000Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
1132 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Conditions have improved.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
618 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Clear and calm will persist into late Monday for the Central and
Eastern Interior before a potentially active mid-week. A rather
weak low pressure system now over the Y-K Delta this morning will
spread north and eventually move east bringing light accumulation
of snow along the West Coast and into the Western Interior as it
traverses into the Interior by Tuesday. Warmer temperatures will
reach the 20's and low 30's for highs into next week for most
places south of the Brooks Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Overnight model runs verified well at 500 mb aloft and at the
surface.
Aloft, an omega block type pattern exists over a good portion of
the state with a trough extending west from Canada, a ridge over
the west coast, and a trough over Anadyr. This pattern will shift
eastward into today where the ridge axis will align with the
Interior Monday morning. The ridge will push the eastern trough
back over Canada, while the trough that was over Anadyr and moved
to the West Coast, will deepen as it shifts eastward. A pretty
well defined shortwave trough will bring likely snow from the
West Coast beginning today and into the Interior on Tuesday. By
Tuesday evening, the pattern aloft changes more zonal and out of
the southwest which will promote rounds of moisture with every
wave that passes through from west to east. This type of pattern
aloft is conducive to accumulating snow for the Interior

At the surface, a deep 1030 mb high in the Eastern Beaufort Sea
will edge eastward to over Banks Island into Monday. A 1000 mb low
will move from the Y-K Delta to the Seward Peninsula today. A
secondary low will branch off to the north and move ashore north
of Kivalina early Monday. These will quickly weaken over land
Monday night, but because of the lows moving north with time and
the aforementioned high, pressure gradient will strengthen for the
eastern Arctic Coast and Brooks Range. The net effect will strengthen
the pressure gradient over the Interior as well, thus gusty winds
along highway summits. Gradients will relax into Tuesday. The
next system we will be closely monitoring will be a 985 mb low
that will move over the Chukchi Peninsula and into the Chukchi Sea
Wednesday morning. A front will extend from this low bringing
ample moisture from the West Coast and into the Interior beginning
Tuesday and lasting potentially into late Thursday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Relatively quiet conditions through late Monday and early Tuesday
until our next shot of snow on Tuesday. This will be a quick
hitter with around an inch or less, but the system to follow
towards the end of the week will be one to watch, as it appears to
have increasing chances of higher accumulating snow amounts for
the Interior. Gusty NE 15 to 25 mph winds at times through Tuesday
morning for higher terrain and summits over the highways.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Areas of fog and low stratus this morning, otherwise, not much in
the way of precipitation to mention, except flurries in some
places. Slight chance of snow possible west of Wainright Monday
morning as a weather front extends northeast before exiting to the
east. This should stay well south of the Slope. As the
aforementioned low edges north with a strong high pressure moving
southeast to locate over Banks Island, pressure gradient will
tighten for the eastern Arctic and winds will increase out of the
east into the day today. The gradient will also tighten for the
Brooks Range Passes tonight into Monday. Winds will begin to relax
for both areas into Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Light snow today will spread from the Y-K Delta north to the
Seward Peninsula this afternoon and evening and extend past
Kotzebue Sound into Monday. The system will slowly move to the
Western Interior into Monday evening. Approximately between one
half to 2 inches of snow is expected from this system. Beginning
Tuesday morning at St. Lawrence Island, we begin to introduce the
next system which has a lot more moisture with it, but still a lot
of uncertainty as far as amounts. Snow will begin for the West
Coast Tuesday afternoon and persist into the next day. Winds will
increase for the Bering and coastal communities Tuesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 to 7...
The aforementioned strong system that will affect the West Coast
late Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to push east over the
forecast area on Wednesday into Thursday night. Some models are
hinting at the potential for heavy snowfall over the Interior as
this system passes through. After this system, we anticipate that
an active and progressive pattern will continue into next weekend
and possibly into early next week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

KS MAR 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
422 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

AKZ207-209>215-220800-
Chukchi Sea Coast-Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-Yukon Delta-
Lower Yukon Valley-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, Espenberg, Kotzebue,
Selawik, Noorvik, Buckland, Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock,
Pilgrim Springs, Serpentine Hot Springs, Taylor, Nome,
White Mountain, Golovin, Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim,
Koyuk, Shaktoolik, Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, Teller,
Wales, Diomede, Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik,
Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay, Marshall, Nunam Iqua,
Pitkas Point, Russian Mission, Grayling, Holy Cross, Shageluk,
Anvik, and Flat
422 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...Winter Storm for the West Coast Tuesday and Wednesday...

Strong winds and heavy snow, along with blowing and drifting snow
are anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday as a weather system moves
over the West Coast. Blizzard conditions may develop as this
system moves over the area.

Right now, it looks like the weather system will reach St.
Lawrence Island by Tuesday morning and will move over the West
Coast late Tuesday into early Wednesday. At this point, there is
still some uncertainty with the details of this system, including
the timing, so stay tuned to weather.gov/fairbanks for the latest
forecast information.