Wind Chill Advisory 19, NWS Fairbanks, AK

915 
WWAK41 PAFG 142303
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
203 PM AKST Sun Feb 14 2021

AKZ201-152100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210215T2100Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
203 PM AKST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills to 55 below occuring. The cold 
  wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to 
  exposed skin.

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast from Point Lay west.

* WHEN...Now to noon Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Very cold wind chills to 55 below occuring
  from Point Lay west. The cold wind chills will cause frostbite 
  in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin. Wind chills are 
  expected to become less severe Monday afternoon as winds 
  decrease.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

632 
WWAK41 PAFG 151500
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
600 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

AKZ201-151600-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-210215T2100Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
600 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
538 AM AKST Sun Feb 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively quiet weather is expected today across most of the
forecast area. A tight pressure gradient over the northern Bering
Sea will bring gusty northerly winds through the Bering Strait
and for St. Lawrence Island through Monday night. A stationary
front will bring some light snow to the eastern Arctic coast today
and Monday. The Interior will be clear with big temperature
inversions in place today into Monday before cloud cover increases
on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 14/00Z initialized the placement of the main synoptic scale
features well; however they didn't do a good job with the
initialization of the strength of the features. The models all
initialized the area of high pressure over the Yukon Territory
several millibars too low. The models also initialize the area of
low pressure over the central Aleutians a little bit too high.
Because the models don't initialize the pressure gradient as
strong as it really is, the model winds will be a little bit
underdone. We will do hand edits to account for this.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 531 dam high is currently in place over the
central and eastern Interior while a 497 dam low is in place over
the central Aleutians. The high will push east into Canada
tonight. A trough will dig south over the Arctic and the West
Coast tonight. This trough will persist over the West Coast for
much of the week.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Clear skies will and strong inversions will continue today.
Temperatures in valley locations will are expected to rise up
into the single digits today, with temperatures in the hills
expected to reach around 20 degrees above zero. Lows tonight will
be in the teens to 20s below in calm valleys, with the Yukon
Flats dropping into the 30s below. The inversion around Fairbanks
will be quite strong again tonight with temperatures in the hills
expected to be in the teens above zero. We will see some gusty
easterly winds near Delta Junction today, where gusts around 30
mph are expected, as well as in the Yukon Valley near Eagle,
where gusts around 20 mph are expected. Monday looks to be similar
to today for most of the Interior. Cloud cover looks increase for
Monday night and Tuesday, bringing some warming in temperatures.
Chances for snow will increase on Monday night and Tuesday,
especially from Fairbanks north and west as a front moves into the
area and stalls.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows an area of cloud
cover associated with stationary front that stretches along the
Brooks Range, over the eastern Arctic Coast and into the Beaufort
Sea. Areas under this cloud cover will see light snow today that
will persist into tonight. Any snow accumulation will be very
minimal. Areas northwest of the cloud cover, such as Utqiagvik,
have seen temperatures fall into the 20s below overnight. The
Coastal areas from Utqiagvik west will see highs in the teens
below today, while to the east highs will be in the single digits
below zero due to cloud cover. Colder air will push south tonight
over the area, resulting in lows in the 20 to 30 below range;
however, lingering cloud cover could help to moderate temperatures
some over the eastern Arctic Coast.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A tight pressure gradient over the northern Bering and southern
Chukchi Seas will bring strong northeasterly winds gusting as high
as 50 mph to St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait, as well
as near Point Hope. The strong winds will result in blowing snow
causing reductions in visibility at times. We opted to extend the
ongoing Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow for St. Lawrence
Island and the Bering Strait coast for an additional 24 hours
(through 6 AM Monday). Aside from the wind issues, a relatively
quiet day is expected today with mostly clear skies. Cloud cover
and chances for light snow will increase tonight over the Yukon
Delta as a front pushes over the area. This system will push
northeast on Monday into the western Interior on Monday bringing
increased cloud cover and chances for snow. The front will stall
out Monday, bringing chances for light snowfall south and east of
a line from Shungnak to Golovin into Wednesday. 1 to 3 inches of
snow is possible for this area from Monday into Wednesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...
The models are hinting at chances for snowfall for the central
and eastern Thursday into the weekend; however, they differ on
the details. Both the GFS and the ECMWF push a front east into the
central Interior on Thursday. The ECMWF quickly moves the front
through, bringing a quick shot of snow. The GFS moves this system
through more slowly, with chances for snowfall lingering through
next weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ230.
&&

FEB 21