Small Craft Advisory 83, NWS Fairbanks, AK

357 
FZAK52 PAFG 141106
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
306 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-150230-
306 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 987 mb low 300 NM northwest of Utqiagvik will move to 350 NM 
north of Utqiagvik as a 986 mb low by 4 am Sunday. The low will 
remain stationary and weaken to 991 mb by 4 am Monday. A cold 
front associated with this low will move eastward through the
Bering Strait today and and then move along the west coast of 
Alaska tonight.

$$

PKZ200-150230-
Norton Sound-
306 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-150230-
Dall Point to Wales-
306 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-150230-
Kotzebue Sound-
306 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-150230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
306 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

916 
FZAK52 PAFG 142133
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
133 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-151415-
133 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A strong low west of Wrangel Island will move to 300 NM northwest
of Utqiagvik as a 988 mb low, and to 200 NM north of Utqiagvik as
a 986 mb low by 4am Sun. The low will remain stationary and 
weaken to 991 mb by 4 am Monday. A cold front associated with this
low will move eastward through the Bering Strait this afternoon  
then move along the west coast of Alaska tonight.

$$

PKZ200-151415-
Norton Sound-
133 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-151415-
Dall Point to Wales-
133 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-151415-
Kotzebue Sound-
133 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt becoming NW. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-151415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
133 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

073 
FZAK52 PAFG 151119
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
319 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-160230-
319 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 985 mb low 350 nm NW of Point Barrow will push a series of
weather fronts east across the northern Chukchi Sea. A weather
front south of the Bering Strait will move slowly southeast and
move inland by early Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ200-160230-
Norton Sound-
319 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-160230-
Dall Point to Wales-
319 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-160230-
Kotzebue Sound-
319 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-160230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
319 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

751 
FZAK52 PAFG 152136
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
136 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-161415-
136 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 985 mb low 350 nm NW of Point Barrow will push a series of
weather fronts east across the northern Chukchi Sea. A weather
front south of the Bering Strait will move slowly southeast and
move inland by early Tuesday.

$$

PKZ200-161415-
Norton Sound-
136 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 10 kt becoming E. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-161415-
Dall Point to Wales-
136 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-161415-
Kotzebue Sound-
136 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-161415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
136 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
636 AM AKDT Fri Aug 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Northern Alaska is now entering a westerly flow pattern with
cool conditions and periods of rain. Showers will lessen in
coverage over the Eastern Interior and Eastern North Slope
through Sat. Significant rain will move east over the West Coast,
Western Interior and Western North Slope tonight and Sat, then
spread east over the Eastern Interior and Eastern North Slope Sat
night and Sun. Could see 0.50-1.00 inch of rain over NW AK from
tonight through Sun.

Southwest winds of 20-30 kt spreading to the West Coast and
Western Arctic tonight and Sat will bring elevated surf to the
southern Seward Peninsula coast near Nome on Sat and Sun, and to
the Kivalina area tonight through Sun.

Could see west winds of 25 kt at Utqiagvik Sun into Mon with the
possibility of elevated surf there Sun and Mon.

Aloft..
A long wave trough stretching from the Pole south over Alaska and
the Eastern Bering Sea will persist into next week with a series
of strong short waves moving east across Alaska. This will cause
cool conditions and periods of rain to continue into early next
week.

A strong short wave trough stretching from Barter Island to
McGrath will move to Inuvik to Denali by 4PM Fri and then continue
moving east tonight. There are numerous to scattered showers east
of this trough, diminishing west of the trough.

A second strong short wave over Russia will move to along the
Dateline Sat, and to the Eastern Interior and Eastern North Slope
on Sun. This will usher in a broad band of rain across most of
Northern Alaska.

Surface...
A low pressure trough stretching from Northway to Arctic Village
will move along the ALCAN Border Sat. Expect Isolated
thunderstorms along and east of this trough today and Fri.

A 999 mb low 300 nm north of Barter Island will move north today.
An Arctic cold front that stretches from this low to Inuvik to
Bettles to Dillingham will move to Chandalar Lake to Denali by 4pm
Fri, and then to Arctic Village to Delta Junction by 4am Sat and
weakening. Expect scattered to numerous showers east of the
front, with showers and clouds diminishing west of the front.
Also should see west winds 5-10 mph along and west of the front.

A strong low west of Wrangel Island will move to 300 NM northwest
of Utqiagvik as a 988 mb low by 4am Sat, to 300 NM north of
Utqiagvik as a 986 mb low by 4pm Sat, and to 200 NM north of
Utqiagvik as a 986 mb low by 4am Sun then persisting there through
Sun. A warm front extending southeast from this front will move to
along the Dateline by 4pm Fri, to Utqiagvik to Nome by 4pm Sat, to
Nuiqsut to Nome by 3pm Sat, to Deadhorse to Mcgrath by 4am Sun,
and to Barter Island to Denali by 4pm Sun. Will see rain spread
east with the front along with SW winds 15-25 kt. Could see
0.50-1.00 inch of rain over NW AK and Wrn Interior from tonight
through Sun, with up to 0.50 inch over the Ern Interior Sat night
and Sun with more possible Mon.

A cold front trailing the low will move to just north of Utqiagvik
to the Chukotsk Peninsula by 4am Sat, to Utqiagvik to the Bering
Strait by 4pm Sat, to Nuiqsut to Kotzebue to Gambell by 4am Sun,
and to Barter Island to the YK Delta by 4pm Sun. Rain will
continue southeast of the cold front then taper off west of the
front. Expect SW winds 25-35 kt along and just east of this front
along the West Coast with winds dropping to 15-25 kt as the front
moves inland. This will cause elevated surf near Kivalina tonight
through Sun, and along the Southern Seward Pen Sat and Sun. Winds
will turn west 25 kt along the Arctic Coast Sun and could cause
elevated surf there. There is still uncertainty due to significant
models differences on the location and strength of the surface
low north of Utqiagvik Sun. Will issue SPS to mention these
events.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 00z, models initialize well aloft. Models show similar
solutions aloft through Sat, with with NAM and ECMF dropping the
low aloft over the High Arctic closer to the Arctic Coast of
Alaska on Sat night and Sun than the GFS. At this time, favor the
NAM/ECMF solution aloft for Sat night and Sun.

Models show same trends for precipitation areas and amounts, but
differ some on details. Given the convective nature of the current
pattern which leads to some uncertainty, will use a blend of the
NAM/GFS and ECMF models for precip amounts and POPs. Precip POPs
and amounts will trend down over the Eastern Interior and Eastern
North Slope Interior through Sat, while precip POPs and amounts
will trend up over the West Coast, Western Interior and Western
North Slope tonight and Sat, then spread east Sat night and Sun.

At the surface at 06Z, models verify well on most features except
that the low north of Barter Island is 3-4 mb deeper than models
indicate, as is the low in the North Gulf of Alaska. Since the low
north of Barter Island is moving north it should have little
effect on Nrn AK, and since the low in the Gulf is being replaced
by another incoming frontal wave it should have little effect.
Models show similar solutions at the surface through 4pm Sat.
After that time, the NAM develops a deeper low north of the Arctic
Coast than the GFS and ECMF. Favor the NAM at the surface for Sat
night and Sun as the deeper surface low reflects the low aloft
moving closer to the Arctic Coast. This could have implications
for surf levels at Utqiagvik on Sun.

Bottom line for models is that we will use a blend of the NAM/GFS
and ECMF for temps, precip amounts and POPs, and clouds. We will
use a blend of models for surface winds through 4pm Sat, then use
the NAM for winds for Sat night and Sun.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Elevated surf possible
near Utqiagvik on Sun.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Northern Alaska is now entering a westerly flow pattern with cool
conditions and periods of rain. Showers will lessen in coverage
over the Eastern Interior and Eastern North Slope through Sat.
Significant rain will move east over the West Coast, Western
Interior and Western North Slope tonight and Sat, then spread east
over the Eastern Interior and Eastern North Slope Sat night and
Sun. Could see 0.50-1.00 inch of rain over NW AK from tonight
through Sun.

Expect RH above 40% most areas today, and above 30% on Sat then
above 40% on Sun. Isolated thunderstorms possible east of Circle
and Tok today, and along the ALCAN Border on Sat, then none on
Sun.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect rivers to remain steady most of Interior into the weekend,
while Rivers in NW Alaska will start to rise this weekend with
incoming rain. Could see 0.50-1.00 inch of rain over NW AK from
tonight through Sun.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240.

Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

JB AUG 21