Small Craft Advisory 69, NWS Fairbanks, AK

561 
FZAK51 PAFG 021211 CCA
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
411 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-030215-
411 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure will build over the Beaufort Sea coast today. A 
front associated with an area of low pressure in the Bering Sea 
will pass over the southern Chuckhi Sea tonight.


$$

PKZ225-030215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
411 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-030215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
411 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-030215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
411 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt becoming E 20 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-030215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
411 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-030215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
411 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

961 
FZAK51 PAFG 022219
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
219 PM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-031515-
219 PM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure will build over the Beaufort Sea coast through 
Tuesday. A front associated with an area of low pressure in the 
Bering Sea will pass over the southern Chuckhi Sea tonight.

$$

PKZ225-031515-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
219 PM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-031515-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
219 PM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-031515-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
219 PM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-031515-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
219 PM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-031515-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
219 PM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
243 PM AKDT Sun Aug 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The seemingly endless pattern of active and wet weather continues
today across the West Coast and Western Interior, but relief is
finally on the way! An upper level ridge that's bringing the
Eastern Interior some warm August sun will build northwest across
Northern Alaska over the next few days. This will lead to fairly
quiet weather and well above normal temperatures across most of
the forecast area throughout the upcoming week. In the Interior,
widespread 80s are expected, and a few daily high temperature
records may even be broken!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
A broad upper level trough parked over the western Bering Sea
continues to send moist southwest flow over the western half of
the state, while upper level ridging extends from the Yukon to
over the Southeast Interior. This persistent setup will continue
the onslaught of heavy rain across the West Coast, Western
Interior and Brooks Range through tonight. However, on Monday,
the upper level ridge will build northwest over the Interior,
bringing along a much warmer airmass, and cutting off the moisture
supply that has been plaguing the West Coast. The ridge will
slowly slide northwest through the middle of the work week,
bringing Northern Alaska pleasant and warm (some may even say
hot!) weather.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Overcast skies and areas of light rain continue for areas
northwest of Fairbanks, while areas to the southeast bask in the
sunny warmth with highs in the 80s under upper level ridging. That
ridging will spread across the entire area on Monday, and stay
there through at least mid-week, leading to mostly sunny skies
and highs in the 80s for most areas. In Fairbanks, we will see our
highest 500 dam heights of the summer thus far, and we may even
break our daily records of 85F on Monday, and 87F on Tuesday.
What a torchfest for early August! The exception to the mostly
sunny conditons will be the possibility for a few thunderstorms
Monday and Tuesday for areas south and east of Tok.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A wide swath of cloud cover and rain remains draped over the area
today, continuing the recent barrage of wet weather. Thankfully,
a notable warming and drying trend is on the way! High pressure
will gradually build across the Interior tonight, sending this
area of rain westward, along the coast. By Monday afternoon,
inland areas will see mostly sunny skies, and the cloud cover and
rain will be tapering off along the coast. Temperatures will warm
notably on Monday, and even more so on Tuesday and Wednesday with
highs in the 70s and 80s inland, and 60s to low 70s expected
along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A front and associated heavy rainfall is currently draped across
the Brooks Range, while the North Slope is seeing another day of
warm southerly flow. Tonight through Monday, the front will
gradually move north to the coastal areas, with high pressure
building over the Brooks Range behind it. The high pressure will
expand across the entire area by Tuesday, leading to warmer and
quieter weather, which will stick around through at least mid
week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 to 7...
Models are in decent agreement on the ridge gradually breaking
down during the extended period as it gets pinched between the
persistent trough in the Bering Sea, a low in the Gulf of Alaska,
and another in the Eastern Beaufort Sea. As the ridge breaks down,
we will trend cooler and potentially wetter, especially along the
West Coast, but even into the Interior.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Areas north and west of Fairbanks have seen wetting rains today,
while areas to the south and east are seeing another warm and dry
day under high pressure. We anticipate very warm and dry
conditions this week for much of the area as that high pressure
continues to build over the forecast area. A few weak weather
systems may bring some isolated thunderstorms to the far
Southeastern Interior on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Recent and ongoing heavy rainfall across the West Coast, Western
Interior, and Brooks Range continues to lead to high water levels
on some of the mainstem rivers, which we continue to watch closely.
A Flood Advisory for Nome and Snake Rivers will continue through
noon Monday with an additional 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall
expected. A Flood Advisory also remains in effect for small
streams and creeks flowing out of the Central Brooks Range into
the Koyukuk and Kobuk Basins. This advisory includes Slate Creek
at Coldfoot, which was in minor flood stage, but has now fallen
below that, and will continue to fall. The Kobuk is rising but is
still below bankfull at Ambler and Kiana, and a Flood Watch
remains in effect for the Kiana area. The Koyukuk is also rising
and will reach bankfull today with the potential for flooding, so
we will be watching it closely as well.
For the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Advisory for portions of AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ217-
AKZ218-AKZ219.

Flood Watch for AKZ208 and AKZ217.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

CULVER AUG 21