Small Craft Advisory 55, NWS Fairbanks, AK

025 
FZAK51 PAFG 202144
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
144 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-211430-
144 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 996 mb low southwest of Point Hope will remain nearly stationary
through Thursday and weaken. A weather front extending east from
the low across the North Slope will persist through Thursday. 

$$

PKZ225-211430-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
144 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.FRI...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-211430-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
144 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-211430-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
144 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Fog.
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Fog.
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Fog.
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 5 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-211430-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
144 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Fog.
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Fog.
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Fog.
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-211430-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
144 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

296 
FZAK51 PAFG 211327
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
527 AM AKDT Wed Jul 21 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-220215-
527 AM AKDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 995 mb low in the southern Chukchi Sea will move to 100 NM west
of POint Hope by 4pm Wed, and then slowly weaken in place through
Fri. A weather front extending from the low to Point Lay to Barter
Island will move north of the coast today. A cold front extending
from the low to Kotzebue will move to Utqiagvik southeast by 4pm 
Wed, and then weaken in place through Thu night. 

$$

PKZ225-220215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
527 AM AKDT Wed Jul 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt decreasing to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding 
to 6 ft. Rain. Fog.
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain. Fog.
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-220215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
527 AM AKDT Wed Jul 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt decreasing to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding 
to 4 ft. Fog. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog.
Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-220215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
527 AM AKDT Wed Jul 21 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt decreasing to 20 kt. Fog. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 5 kt. 
.SUN...S winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-220215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
527 AM AKDT Wed Jul 21 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt decreasing to 20 kt. Fog and freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Fog and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-220215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
527 AM AKDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

887 
FZAK51 PAFG 212208
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
208 PM AKDT Wed Jul 21 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-221515-
208 PM AKDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 997 mb low north of the Chukotsk Peninsula will weaken in place
through Friday. A weather front extending east from the low to 
north of the Arctic Coast will weaken in place through Thursday 
night.

$$

PKZ225-221515-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
208 PM AKDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft. Fog.
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.FRI...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-221515-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
208 PM AKDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog and freezing
fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog.
Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-221515-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
208 PM AKDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Fog and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. 
.SUN...S winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-221515-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
208 PM AKDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and fog. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-221515-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
208 PM AKDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
127 PM AKDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorms and showers along the West Coast this
evening with showers continuing through Tuesday and spreading into
the Middle Yukon Valley overnight. Rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inch
for most areas, but areas that get thunderstorms could see quite a
bit more. Showers in the Western Arctic from Utqiagvik west
tonight, then increasing chance of thunderstorms in the Plains
Tuesday east of Howard Pass. East of Utqiagvik offshore flow will
bring some warmer temperatures to the coast Tuesday. For the
Central and Eastern Interior warm and dry will continue at
temperatures in most areas rise into the low to mid 80s. Isolated
thunderstorms mainly west and south of Beaver with some scattered
thunderstorms west of a line from Bettles to Manley Hot Springs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...There is good agreement again today with the latest
solutions, 19/12Z. Surface solutions were slightly weaker again
today with the major features, but with little impact to the
forecast. Convective indicies looking good for west of Galena this
evening, and for a wide swath of isolated thunderstorms and
showers over the northeast half of the state Tuesday. Things get
very interesting on Wednesday, especially along the AlCan from the
Top of the World highway crossing to Chalkyitsik where lifted
indicies are in the -3 to -6 range, and CAPE values near 2000 J/kg
develop in the afternoon. Will be kicking up the thunderstorm
coverage and lightning activity level in that area. Precipitation
has moved to the coast a bit early than solutions had it showing
up, so will use a blend of the short term hires solutions then
increase the coverage over the coast this afternoon and evening.
Not many changes made to the current database other than those
mentioned above. The extended periods still seem to be being
handled well by most of the models, so will be using a general
blend for those for days 4 to 7.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over most of the state with a 577
dam high over Eagle with ridging extending southwest over Prince
William Sound. Troughing to the south with a 559 dam low in the
Northeast Pacific, to the west with a 550 dam low just south of
the Gulf of Anadyr near the Dateline, and across the high Arctic
with a 528 dam low 400 nm north of Point Lay. The high over Eagle
is being pinched off as a col has developed over Prince William
Sound this afternoon. Ridging will continue over the Central and
Eastern Interior, but weaken as the high moves over the Northwest
Territories while the troughing to the west slides east with the
low moving to the Bering Strait at 548 dam. The low over the
Arctic will move northeast to the Northern Beaufort Sea at 525
dam, and the low in the Northeast Pacific will move over the
British Columbia coast at 561 dam. Not a lot of change by
Wednesday afternoon as the ridge will push back to the west a bit
with a 566 dam high developing over the Yukon Territory and
ridging pushing northwest over the offshore waters to 75N over the
Dateline. The low over the Bering Strait will move north into the
Chukchi Sea with a strong shortwave extending southeast over
Norton Sound to western Kodiak Island. At 850 hpa...Temperatures
have risen to near or above +10C with the warmest temperatures
along the AlCan Border south of Eagle around +15C. As the trough
to the west approaches the coast temperatures will cool and by
Tuesday afternoon the +10C isotherm will lie from Point Lay to
Minchumina then southeast, and temperatures along the AlCan will
warm to +15 to +19C.

Surface...Weak troughing pushing into the western half of the
state with weak high pressure holding over the eastern half.
Leeside troughing developing north of the Alaska Range tonight. A
weather front associated with a 1000 mb low in the Bering Sea will
move up the West Coast this evening and tonight with another
front moving north up the coast on Tuesday as the low moves to the
Bering Strait. High pressure over the Copper River Basin will
combine with the troughing north of the Alaska Range to produce a
fairly strong pressure gradient across the range with gusty winds
developing near passes tonight and persisting into the afternoon
Tuesday. Troughing developing across the Arctic Plain Tuesday with
some gusty winds near the Brooks Range passes in the afternoon
and evening as a 1009 mb high holds over the Upper Yukon Flats.
Weak high pressure will remain across the Arctic as it moves from
over the coast tonight to along 75N Tuesday. Branch of the thermal
trough lies from Northway to Chickaloon with another from
Northway to Central this afternoon. There is also a thermal trough
along the north slopes of the Brooks Range. Tuesday one branch of
the thermal trough will lie from Northway to Beaver with another
over the AlCan Border, and the thermal trough will hold along the
north slopes of the Brooks Range.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...From Utqiagvik west cloudy,
showers, areas of fog with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Winds
becoming northeast 5 to 15 mph tonight. East of Utqiagvik becoming
partly cloudy as the downslope winds off the Brooks Range will
help dry things out Tuesday with temperatures warming into the 60s
and 70s during the day and overnight lows in the 50s tonight and
40s Tuesday night. Winds south to southwest at 5 to 20 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...Scattered to isolated
thunderstorms this evening with increasing showers as the night
goes on along the coast. Showers will eventually push into the
Middle Yukon Valley and Upper Kobuk by Tuesday morning. Heaviest
rainfall will be in the Bendeleben Mountains, Nulato Hills, and
along the south slopes of the Brooks Range. Rainfall amounts of
0.5 to 1.5 inches expected by Tuesday evening. St Lawrence Island
will be cloudy with showers. Smoke from the fires in Siberia
continues to linger over most of the area and may impact
visibility at times. High temperatures along the coast mid 40s to
around 60 Tuesday and Wednesday. Inland high temperatures will be
in 60s Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows will be in the mid 40s and 50s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Isolated thunderstorms and showers
southeast of Dot Lake this evening, otherwise mostly clear. Light
and variable winds tonight with increasing south winds near the
Alaska Range passes Tuesday morning. Increased chance of
thunderstorms and showers tomorrow across the Interior mainly west
and south of Beaver with some scattered thunderstorms west of a
line from Bettles to Manley Hot Springs. Winds near the passes
will be gusting to around 40 mph into the afternoon before
diminishing. Temperatures even warmer Tuesday most locations in
the Central and Eastern Interior pushing into the lower 80s after
overnight lows in the 50s. Most areas cooling back into the 70s
Wednesday as clouds increase across the area.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Not much change for the
extended forecast as it will generally be warm and dry from
Fairbanks east with some afternoon thunderstorms and showers
possible, with cool and wet conditions to the west. The Arctic
will be similar with cool and wet to the west of Deadhorse, and
generally dry and warm from Deadhorse east.

&&

.Fire Weather...Some isolated thunderstorms and showers southeast
of Dot Lake this evening, with scattered to isolated
thunderstorms mainly west of Galena in the Nulato Hills. Tuesday
widespread isolated thunderstorm activity will extend from the
southeast Interior northwest to the Western and Central Brooks
Range and into the Arctic Plain. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected in and area bounded by Lake Minchumina to Ambler to
Howard Pass to Bettles to Manley Hot Springs. A weather front on
the West Coast will continue to spread showers over the area with
increased chances of wetting rain west of Tanana. Warm and dry
east of Tanana with near Red Flag conditions Tuesday near the
Alaska Range as winds gust to around 40 mph. Wednesday looks to be
a very active thunderstorm activity day, especially along the
AlCan Border. Winds for the remainder of the Central and Eastern
Interior will generally be light and variable, while winds west of
Tanana will be southeast to south at 5 to 15 mph. Minimum
Relative Humidity values Tuesday range from around 30 along the
AlCan Border and in the Upper Yukon Flats to the mid 60s in the
Middle Yukon Valley. Wednesday values will range from the lower
30s to the mid 60s. Overnight Relative Humidity recovery will be
fair to good east of Tanana, and very good to the west.

&&

.Hydrology...No issues at this time. For the latest river
information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.

&&

SDB JUL 21