Small Craft Advisory 45, NWS Fairbanks, AK

649 
FZAK51 PAFG 102153
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
153 PM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-111415-
153 PM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A strong front extending south from a low near 80N and the
Dateline will swing east over the Chukchi Sea pushing onto the
Western North Slope this afternoon and across the Eastern North
Slope tonight.

$$

PKZ225-111415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
153 PM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...S winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-111415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
153 PM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft. Fog and
freezing fog. 
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-111415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
153 PM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt decreasing to 20 kt. Fog and freezing
fog. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-111415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
153 PM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt becoming W 20 kt. Fog, rain.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-111415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
153 PM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

229 
FZAK51 PAFG 111154
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
354 AM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-120215-
354 AM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A strong front extending south from a low near 80N and 145W will 
continue to push south and east over the Brooks Range tonight and
into the Northern Interior tomorrow.

$$

PKZ225-120215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
354 AM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-120215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
354 AM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Fog and freezing
fog. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.MON...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-120215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
354 AM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-120215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
354 AM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-120215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
354 AM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
244 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer and drier with isolated showers and isolated thunderstorm
limited to areas north and east of Fairbanks today and limited in
all areas of the Central and Eastern Interior on Sunday. Expect wind
and rain along a strong front pushing east over the North Slope
today and tonight. The West Coast and Western Interior dry out and
warm up as a low currently in Bristol Bay pushes south and east
into the Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...10/002Z solutions continue the trend of being reasonable
in the short term, but still struggling to present a clear picture
in the both the mid range as well as the extended periods as they
try to figure out how to handle the ridging over the state and
the broad area of low heights over the Arctic with several waves
moving through the zonal flow. Short term we will be using a
blend of the solutions with a nod toward the current database.

Aloft at 500 hpa...a longwave trough with axis from the McKenzie
Delta southwestward to Bristol Bay will continue to weaken and
slowly push southeast into the northern Gulf of Alaska while a
ridge aloft builds eastward over the Interior into the middle of
next week. Still lots of uncertainty on the timing and strength
of several shortwaves rotating around the upper level low to the
north of the state as well as the upper level low to the south of
the state and will the shortwaves be able to weaken the ridge
aloft over the interior enough to increase thunderstorm chances
over the interior.

On the surface at 1000 mb low over Bristol Bay will continue to
slowly drift south and east over the northern Gulf of Alaska as
a strong front pushes rapidly south and east out of the Chukchi
Sea over the Western North Sloe this afternoon and over the
Eastern North Slope tonight. Broad surface high pressure over the
Eastern Bering Sea will prompt the development sea stratus and fog
along the West Coast tonight and again on Sunday night. Mostly
clear skies over the interior will usher in warmer and drier
conditions today and will reduce thunderstorm activity over the
interior Sunday into Tuesday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy, windy and rainy as a
strong weather front moves across the area today and tonight.
Strong wind headlines have been posted for areas along the coast
to the west of Utqiagvik for wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range.
Some clearing Saturday night and Sunday behind the front, mainly
in the inland areas. High temperatures along the coast in the 40s
to around 50, and lows in the 30s. Inland temperatures will be in
the 50s to around 60, and lows will be in the 40s.

West Coast and Western Interior...Areas of fog are expected today
and Sunday will reduce visibility until late morning. Winds variable
5 to 15 mph becoming southwest today for most locations. High
temperatures warming into the 50s and 60s this weekend along the
coast and into the mid to upper 60s inland. Expect lows in the 40s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Isolated showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening from Fairbanks north and east with
limited thunderstorm activity expected on Sunday. Warmer and
drier conditions are expect Sunday and into early next week with
decreased chance of thunderstorms and showers. Winds variable to
10 mph during the day for most areas. The exception will be from
Delta Junction south to the Alaska Range today with winds still
gusty from the south around 15 to 25 mph diminishing this
afternoon. Highs in the 60s and 70s today with lows in the in the
mid 40s to lower 50s. High temperatures will slowly inch up early
in the week with high temperatures pushing into the low to mid 70s
on Sunday and into the middle to upper 70s Monday and into the
upper 70s and lower 80s Tuesday. A front moving south over the
Central and Eastern Interior on Wednesday will cool the area a few
degrees but will introduce the chance of thunderstorms again.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Longwave trough axis aloft
will be over the Yukon Territory with ridging aloft building east
between the ranges. Warmer and drier conditions for the Interior
and West Coast with highs ranging from the lower 60s along the
coast to the lower 80s in the Central and Eastern Interior.
Expect limited afternoon thunderstorms activity over the interior
from Sunday into Tuesday. In the Arctic a weather front will move
rapidly across the area bringing showers with highs along the
coast generally in the 40s and lows in the upper 30s, then high
pressure moving across the area mid week with generally low clouds
and areas of fog.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms and showers again this
afternoon and evening mainly north and east of Fairbanks. Warming
and drying trend continues with thunderstorm activity limited to
areas along the ALCAN border today and limited activity expected
Sunday into Tuesday as high pressure aloft builds into the area.
The thermal trough will make a reappearance in the Upper Yukon
Flats next week. High temperatures this weekend will be in the 60s
and 70s after morning lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. High
temperatures will continue to slowly rise into the lower to mid
70s on Sunday and into the mid to upper 70s on Monday. High
temperatures will push into the upper 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday
of next week. Minimum Relative Humidity values will range from
the mid 20s near the AlCan Border to the 40s in the Middle Yukon
Valley Sunday into Tuesday. Overnight Relative Humidity recovery
will be fair to good. Winds variable to 10 mph during the day,
then light drainage winds to 5 mph at night. The exception will be
Delta Junction south to the Alaska Range where they will be south
gusting to 25 mph around Delta Junction and around 30 mph near
the range this morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No hydrology impacts expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

CCC JUL 21