Small Craft Advisory 29, NWS Fairbanks, AK

962 
FZAK51 PAFG 271120
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
320 AM AKDT Sun Jun 27 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-280230-
320 AM AKDT Sun Jun 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 979 mb low in the high Arctic moves southeast through Monday. A
weather front stretching to Wrangel Island this morning will move
east to Point Barrow by Monday morning and continue east to Banks
Island by Monday night. 

$$

PKZ225-280230-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
320 AM AKDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, snow.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-280230-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
320 AM AKDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-280230-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
320 AM AKDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Fog, rain.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-280230-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
320 AM AKDT Sun Jun 27 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 25 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-280230-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
320 AM AKDT Sun Jun 27 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt becoming W. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

Jun 21

995 
FZAK51 PAFG 272254
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
254 PM AKDT Sun Jun 27 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-281415-
254 PM AKDT Sun Jun 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 980 mb low in the high Arctic moves southeast through Monday. A
weather front stretching from this low will move east to Point 
Barrow by Monday morning and continue east to Banks Island by 
Monday night.

$$

PKZ225-281415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
254 PM AKDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-281415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
254 PM AKDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-281415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
254 PM AKDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Rain and snow. 
.MON...W winds 25 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-281415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
254 PM AKDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 25 kt. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Snow and rain. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED...N winds 5 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-281415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
254 PM AKDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 25 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Snow.
.TUE...SW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

Jun 21

620 
FZAK51 PAFG 281201
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
401 AM AKDT Mon Jun 28 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-290200-
401 AM AKDT Mon Jun 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A weather front associated with a 981 mb low near 80N and the
Dateline lies from the northern Beaufort Sea over the Northwest
Arctic Coast and will move E. High pressure will push E over the
Arctic Coast behind the front with a 1006 mb high near Utqiagvik
tonight. Tue the low will move E along 80N to 160W with another 
front moving to the Northwest Arctic Coast.

$$

PKZ225-290200-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
401 AM AKDT Mon Jun 28 2021

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-290200-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
401 AM AKDT Mon Jun 28 2021

.TODAY...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-290200-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
401 AM AKDT Mon Jun 28 2021

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-290200-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
401 AM AKDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Snow and rain. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED...N winds 5 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 5 kt. 
.THU...W winds 5 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-290200-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
401 AM AKDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Snow.
.TUE...SW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 5 kt. 
.THU...W winds 5 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

SDB Jun 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
207 PM AKDT Sat Jun 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad upper level trough is dominating the region with the
parent low center over the YK Delta. A strong blocking high over
off to the east but will get shunted farther east as the trough to
the west shifts eastward, thus keeping cooler conditions over the
region with limited thunderstorms mainly focused north of the
Yukon Flats. A series of fronts will bring more heavy rain to the
North Slope and Brooks Range Monday and beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a massive blocking high centered over the Pacific NW and
British Columbia. There is a 544 dam 500 hpa upper level low
centered over the Bristol Bay/YK Delta area which is supporting
broad south flow aloft and a strong 135 kt upper level jet stream.
A shortwave trough is ejecting out of the Alaska Range and moving
northward, as seen on satellite imagery and radar. Breezy south
gap winds continue through the AK Range gaps which is responding
to the southerly flow aloft and the weak surface low over the
Yukon Flats.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A low is lifting north, with an area of showers across the Yukon
Flats and Upper Koyukuk Valley. Some late afternoon thunderstorms
will form over the Brooks Range this afternoon, but instability is
pretty meagre. South gap winds through the AK Range will finally
trend down this evening as the low level flow changes to a more
southwest flow. Tomorrow, besides some isolated thunder over the
far southeast parts of the Brooks Range and Fortymile Uplands,
just general isolated showers for the next few days with cooler
temps into the upper 60s to low 70s. Pretty quiet weather overall.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Widespread showers are moving into the Delta associated with an
upper level low slowly moving to the north. This low will lift
north tomorrow and continue to support showers and light rain,
along with cooler temps. A few isolated thunderstorms are also
possible tomorrow given the steep lapse rates underneath this
upper low, from the Seward Peninsula to the Western Interior.

The next significant weather feature is a front which will dig
south from the Chukchi Sea into the NW Arctic Borough and Western
Brooks Range. Next Monday, a strong occluded front will shift
over the western Arctic and move east, bringing strong southwest
winds to the coast from the Bering Strait north. This will be
followed by a strong moisture surge from Siberia which will allow
for potential heavy rainfall over this same area Tuesday. Stay
tuned as some locations may see significant rainfall
accumulations from Monday through Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Weak offshore flow has moved stratus and fog back over the Arctic
waters, and offshore flow looks to persist for the remainder of
the weekend into early next week. Next Monday, a strong occluded
front will shift over the western Arctic and move east, bringing
strong southwest winds across the Arctic Plain, west coast, and
Brooks Range. Moreover, moderate rainfall will move across the
the North Slope and Brooks Range from west to east, persisting
through at least Tuesday with locally heavier rainfall Monday
night and Tuesday as a second surge of moisture moves east from a
Siberian warm front. This event will need to be watched as there
is the threat for heavy rain and river rises early next week.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Beginning the extended forecast on Tue night, there will be a very
large arctic low centered just offshore of the Arctic Coast, a
trough moving across the Gulf of Alaska to the east, and ridging
building into southwest Alaska. Heavy rain will still be ongoing
across parts of the North Slope and Brooks Range with drier
weather over the Interior. Ridging will gradually rebuild into the
Interior as a large low moves into the Bering Sea. This should
result in warming interior and possibly out west, too, depending
on how far the Bering front moves east toward midweek and beyond.
At this juncture confidence is lower for those areas, but higher
for warmer and drier for the Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showery and cooler weather with isolated thunderstorms relegated
to the Brooks Range and Fortymile Uplands, and into the Seward
Peninsula tomorrow. These will all be wet with minimal lightning
given the meagre instability. Gap winds blowing from the south
begin to fade tonight. Showery and cool last on the West Coast the
next several days with temps remaining seasonal out east, but more
moist min RH values as the chinook south flow wanes. Thunderstorm
threats pretty much end by Monday with an outside chance of
elevated thunderstorms over the NW Arctic Borough as a potentially
strong low level jet pushes over that area from Siberia.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns for now, but heavy rain will redevelop over the
western Brooks Range and North Slope, and this will fall from
Monday through Tuesday night. There remains some uncertainty on
how much and where the heaviest precip falls, but the potential
for 1-2.5" of rainfall across this area. This could lead to
potentially sharp rises over fast moving streams as well as
mainstem rivers such as the Noatak River. Stay tuned as this event
nears.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.

&&

Ahsenmacher JUN 21