Small Craft Advisory 28, NWS Fairbanks, AK

699 
FZAK52 PAFG 252236
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
236 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-261445-
236 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A broad area of low pressure over the area will persist through
the weekend.

$$

PKZ200-261445-
Norton Sound-
236 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-261445-
Dall Point to Wales-
236 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-261445-
Kotzebue Sound-
236 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SUN...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-261445-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
236 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 kt becoming NE. Seas 6 ft subsiding to
4 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

Jun 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
143 PM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Dry, breezy, and warm through the evening in the
Interior with winds diminishing by late evening. A weather front
jumped over the Interior early this morning and is redeveloping
along the Brooks Range this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms and
heavy rain showers can be expected through Saturday morning with
up to 1.5 inches of rain expected. Rivers and streams draining
out of the Brooks Range will see some rapid rises this weekend.
With low pressure persisting to the west, showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue through the weekend west of Tanana.
Temperatures slightly cooler through the weekend.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 24/12Z solutions are in good agreement through the
short term. There is reasonable agreement in the midrange and
extended periods, with the ECMWF being a bit of an outlier as it
develops a closed low over Southcentral Alaska. The surface
solutions initialized well against the 24/15Z local analysis.
Troughing to the west bringing more showers to the West Coast and
Western Interior. Strong ridging east of Ruby will continue the
south flow across the Alaska Range with dry and breezy conditions
in the southern part of the Interior due to downslope off the
Alaska Range. Troughing will remain over the Arctic with a sharp
trough dropping some cold air south over the Northwest and Central
Arctic Coasts Tuesday. Just a general blend of the solutions for
the short term today as that will maintain continuity.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging extends from a 589 dam high off the
Vancouver Island Coast over Northern British Columbia, the Yukon
Territory, the Brooks Range, and the southern Chukchi Sea.
Troughing over the Arctic with a 517 dam low near the North Pole
and trough extending south over 170W. A 527 dam low is over the
Alaska Peninsula this afternoon near Cold Bay with a trough
extending over the south slopes of the Alaska Range and the Copper
River Basin. Friday afternoon the ridging will strengthen as 570
dam heights push northwest over the AlCan Border while the low to
the southwest moves near Nunivak Island at 538 dam. Troughing will
remain over the Arctic with zonal flow as the low moves to south
over the Dateline to 80N. There will be little change from Friday
to Saturday afternoon. At 850 hpa...+10C isotherm lies north of
MacKenzie Bay to Oliktok Point to Point Hope to Shishmaref to
Coldfoot to Minchumina to McGrath, then south of the Alaska
Range. By Friday afternoon the +10C temperatures will be mainly
east of Fairbanks with temperatures over the West Coast and Arctic
Coast around +2C.

Surface...Broad area of low pressure remains over mainland
Alaska. High pressure has built in over the Copper River Basin and
combined with leeside troughing to the north of the Alaska Range
the gradient has tightened and strong gusty winds are blowing near
the Alaska Range passes and gusty winds have pushed into the
Middle Tanana Valley. Weather front jumped across the Interior and
is redeveloping over the Brooks Range this afternoon with isolated
thunderstorms and showers developing. The front is associated with
a 978 mb low that is near Cold Bay. A 990 mb low has developed
along the front in Norton Sound, and the thermal low is near Fort
Yukon. The front will stall along the Brooks Range tonight, and
the low in Norton Sound will move to the Noatak Basin enhancing
the showers in that area as the low backs slowly to the west
through Friday. A low will develop along the front in the Eastern
Brooks Range Friday enhancing the showers is that area. Isolated
thunderstorms and showers in the Brooks Range will continue through
Saturday morning with up to 1.5 inches of rainfall expected west
of Coldfoot. In the Arctic high pressure is pushing in from the
northwest and will push east over the Arctic Coast as a 1016 mb
high near Wrangel Island moves to 100 nm north of Oliktok Point
Friday evening. Broad low pressure will remain over the Interior
through the weekend with breezy conditions near the Alaska Range
passes.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A mix of clouds with some isolated
thunderstorms and showers in the inland areas this evening, and
showers in the Brooks Range through Saturday morning. Patches of
stratus and areas of fog moving onshore at times will be hard to
time. North to east winds 10 to 20 mph along the coast with
variable winds to 10 mph inland and in the Brooks Range. Along the
coast highs in the 40s to lower 50s, with lows in the 30s. Inland
Highs in the 50s and 60s with lows around 50, and in the Brooks
Range highs in the 40s and 50s, with lows in the 30s.

West Coast and Western Interior...Isolated thunderstorms with the
showers. Showers south of Kotzebue will taper off from the
southeast Friday. To the north of Kotzebue the showers along the
Brooks Range will continue into Saturday before tapering off.
Rainfall of up to 1.5 inches will be possible so expect sharp
rises in the drainages flowing out of the Brooks Range this
weekend. Highs along the coast in the 50s and 60s, with lows in
the 40s. Inland temperatures in the 60s to mid 70s with lows in
the upper 40s to lower 50s. Winds variable to 15 mph becoming
southeast as the front moves through.

Central and Eastern Interior...Some isolated thunderstorms with
showers north of the Yukon River tonight, with showers continuing
along the south slopes of the Brooks Range through Saturday
morning before tapering off. South of the Yukon River a mix of
clouds. Downslope off the Alaska Range will keep areas south of
the Yukon River dry through the weekend. Heavy rainfall expected
along the Brooks Range with up to 1.5 inches of rainfall through
Saturday morning. Drainages out of the Brooks Range will see some
sharp rises this weekend. Windy near the Alaska Range with gusts
near 60 mph, and gusting to around 20 mph in the Fairbanks area.
Winds diminishing overnight and will not be as strong Friday as
today, but they will still be pretty gusty near the Alaska Range.
Temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s Thursday through the
weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A decaying front moving
northeast across the state will bring some increased chances of
thunderstorms and showers to the Interior. Isolated thunderstorms
and showers will continue on the West Coast as troughing aloft
will remain over the West Coast through early next week. The
Arctic will be cloudy with showers.

.Fire Weather...Red Flag warnings continue into the evening for
Fairbanks area south to the Alaska Range. Will remain breezy near
the Alaska Range through the weekend. Thunderstorms and showers
along the West Coast, in the Western Interior, and along the
Brooks Range through Saturday morning. Widely isolated
thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings for the Central and
Eastern Interior through the weekend. Temperatures will be
cooling a few degrees through the weekend. Winds gusting to around
60 mph near the Alaska Range this evening will diminish tonight,
but will remain gusty to around 40 mph through Sunday. Winds in
the Fairbanks area are gusting to around 20 mph and will diminish
this evening, but expect winds 5 to 15 mph all weekend. Minimum
Relative Humidity values falling into the 20s in the Central and
Eastern Interior with 40s west and northwest of Tanana. Relative
Humidity recovery will be good at night.

&&

.Hydrology...Showers in the Brooks Range through Saturday as a
weather front stalls in the area. Rainfall through Saturday
morning will range up to 1.5 inches in the Brooks Range from
Noatak to Coldfoot. Drainages out of the Brooks Range will see
sharp rises this weekend. For the latest river information go to
www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning for AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ220.

&&

SDB JUN 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
323 AM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

AKZ218-219-260200-
Southeastern Brooks Range-Upper Koyukuk Valley-
Including Arctic Village, Wiseman, Coldfoot, Chandalar DOT Camp,
Iniakuk Lake, Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain,
and Gobblers Knob
323 AM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...Heavy rainfall expected in the Brooks Range through this
evening...

Heavy rain showers and thunderstorms are expected for the Central
and Eastern Brooks Range, as a weather front stalls in the area,
with up to half an inch of additional rainfall expected.

Drainages out of the Brooks Range will see sharp rises today and
Saturday with rivers remaining high through the weekend.

Outdoor recreators should remain especially vigilant for very
fast rises on local streams and rivers draining out of the
Brooks Range.

For the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
323 AM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

AKZ205-206-260200-
Northwestern Brooks Range-Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Singiluk, Umiat, Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass,
Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, and Franklin Bluffs
323 AM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...Heavy rainfall expected in the Brooks Range through this
evening...

Heavy rain showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Brooks
Range, as a weather front stalls in the area, with up to half an
inch of additional rainfall expected.

Drainages out of the Brooks Range will see sharp rises today and
Saturday with rivers remaining high through the weekend.

Outdoor recreators should remain especially vigilant for very
fast rises on local streams and rivers draining out of the
Brooks Range.

For the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
324 AM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

AKZ208-217-260200-
Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Noatak, Kiana, Red Dog Mine, Ambler, Shungnak,
and Kobuk
324 AM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...Heavy rainfall expected over the Brooks Range and Noatak Valley
through this evening...

Heavy rain showers and thunderstorms are expected for the Western
and Central Brooks Range, as a weather front stalls in the area,
with up to three quarters of inches of additional rainfall
expected.

Drainages out of the Brooks Range will see sharp rises today and
Saturday with rivers remaining high through the weekend.

Outdoor recreators should remain especially vigilant for very
fast rises on local streams and rivers draining out of the Brooks
Range, and Baird Mountains, including the Noatak and Kobuk
rivers.

For the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.