Small Craft Advisory 155, NWS Fairbanks, AK

746 
FZAK52 PAFG 131158
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
358 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-140215-
358 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A low pressure trough over the North Slope of Alaska will persist
into today and then weaken Thursday. A low developing in the 
Western Bering Sea today will move to the Southeast Bering Sea 
Thu as a 994 mb low then move east into the Gulf of Alaska on 
Friday.

$$

PKZ200-140215-
Norton Sound-
358 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-140215-
Dall Point to Wales-
358 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.THU...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-140215-
Kotzebue Sound-
358 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TODAY...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI...NE winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-140215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
358 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

Oct 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
220 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather front stalled over over SW Alaska will continue to
weaken through the day today. Light snow and periods of light
rain over Alaska SW of Kotzebue to McGrath that will taper off
today. A strong low in the Northeast Gulf of Alaska continues to
spread snow north over the Southeast Interior this morning and
most of the Eastern Interior today and tonight. The heaviest snow
is expected to fall in the areas southeast of Dot Lake to Eagle
through Tue evening with 4 to 6 inches, expected and locally up
to 8 inches possible on the north facing slopes of the Eastern
Alaska Range. Most areas of the Eastern Interior east of the
Parks, Elliot and Dalton Highways can expect several inches of
snow through Thursday.Temperatures across all of Northern Alaska
will fall slowly through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough over the Bering
Sea and Western Gulf of Alaska and a second trough over the
Eastern Gulf of Alaska, Eastern Alaska and NW Canada. A strong
ridge exists over British Columbia. The pattern continues to be
progressive with shortwaves pushing rapidly through the longwave.
The long wave trough remains over Alaska through the weekend.
This means that we will see a slow cooling trend through the week.

Surface...
High pressure north of the North Slope combined with weak low
pressure over the North Slope of Alaska will persist into
Wednesday and will produce east winds, snow and blowing snow over
the eastern portions of the North Slope Coast, where Winter
Weather Advisories have been issued for low visibilities in
blowing snow.

A 970 mb low in the northeastern Gulf of Alaska combined with a
984 mb low over the southern Yukon will continue to pump moisture
north and west into the southeastern and eastern Interior.
Snowfall in the 4 to 6 inches with locally up to 8 inches is
expected along the Alaskan Highway with the heaviest snowfall
expected near Tok and along the Tok Cutoff today and into tonight.

Models initialized well against the 00z both the surface analysis
as well as aloft and the 00z model suite verified well against
the 06z surface analysis as well as aloft. The 00z model suite
shows similar solutions through Wednesday afternoon with models
differing in strength and location of short wave features which is
to be expected with fast progressive flow. Model guidance remains
reasonable into the long range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Hydrology...Rivers continue to fall.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ224-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230-PKZ245-PKZ500-PKZ505.
&&

CCC OCT 21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKDT TUE OCT 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HEAVY SNOW       1 S TOK                 63.29N 143.04W
10/12/2021  M4.0 INCH        SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKSAK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            12 HOUR SNOW FALL TOTAL 4.0 INCHES.

&&