Flood Watch 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

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WGAK69 PAFG 241450
FFAAFG

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
650 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

AKZ206-241600-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210526T0200Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, 
and Franklin Bluffs
650 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for a portion of Northern Alaska has been 
cancelled.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
404 AM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will slide east into Canada this morning as an upper
level ridge builds over the Bering Sea and West Coast today.
Expect warming temperatures along with drier conditions across
the Interior as the ridge dominates weather conditions into early
next week. Except for the Eastern Brooks Range south across the
Eastern Interior where the shower activity will be confined to
through midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At the surface, models are in good agreement with the placement
and strength of major synoptic features. A 1025 mb high sits
across Western Alaska with a 982 mb low west of Adak and a weak
1009 mb low northeast of Wrangel Island. As the day progresses,
high pressure will continue to anchor itself and build over
Western Alaska. While the low over the Aleutians drifts slightly
north and weakens, and the low near Wrangel Island moves northeast
into the Arctic Ocean. Overall, the pattern across most of
Northern Alaska looks relatively benign as the high across Western
Alaska becomes the dominant weather feature over the next several
days as it builds and slowly drifts north into the Chukchi Sea
and then east across the North Slope Monday into Tuesday. A weak
low develops across the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country
Tuesday afternoon.

Aloft, at 500 mb, models initialize well with a ridge pushing
north into the West Coast from the Gulf of Alaska, a 535 decameter
(dam) low over the Chukchi Sea, and a 543 dam low over the
Central Interior. Over the next few days, the low over the
Central Interior will dive south into the Gulf of Alaska Monday
and the low over the Chuckchi will move north into the Arctic
Ocean. The main weather feature will be ridging that continues to
strengthen as a closed 566 dam high develops over Western Alsaka
and remains quasi-stationary through Tuesday. Elsewhere, a
shortwave will dive south across the Eastern Brooks Range into the
Eastern Interior, giving upper level support and enhancing
chances of isolated thunderstorms across the Upper Tanana Valley
and Fortymile Country Tuesday afternoon.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Stratus, fog, and showers are impacting portions of the region
this morning. Accumulating snow is falling over the Eastern
Brooks Range, where Atigun Pass may pick up an additional half
inch of new snow. Most of the precipitation will taper off this
afternoon as conditions clear with high pressure building in
across the North Slope. Expect conditions to remain dry into early
next week, with temperatures right around normal. Winds today
along the Northwest Coast, from Point Lay north, will increase
from the west/southwest, with the winds easing Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Widespread stratus along with patchy areas of dense fog will
diminish this afternoon as high pressure builds in over the next
several days. Temperatures will gradually warm to above normal
along with dry conditions expected into Tuesday, except areas
south of St. Lawrence Island where higher chances of precipitation
will occur.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Cloudy, cool, and showery weather will shift east this morning
as high pressure builds in. Temperatures will gradually warm
through Tuesday with highs pushing well into 60s for most areas.
Chances of showers for Monday and Tuesday, including some
isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, will be limited to the
Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country. Otherwise, relatively
quiet and pleasant weather conditions across the region through
midweek.

Coastal Hazard Potential for Days 3 and 4...
No concerns at this time.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 through 7...
Beginning the extended period on Wednesday, ridging over Western
Alaska breaks down as an upper level trough dives south out of
the Arctic into the Interior Wednesday through Friday. Expect
some cooling temperatures along with increasing chances of
precipitation from the Eastern Brooks Range south into the Central
and Eastern Interior. Elsewhere, a storm will track through the
Bering, spreading moisture north across the Yukon Delta and
Southern Interior late week into next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No major concerns at this time as much of the region received
wetting rains over the last several days. Conditions will remain
relatively cool today, resulting in high minimum RH values. Expect
warming temperatures along with drying conditions Monday into
Tuesday as high pressure builds in across the Interior, with
continued good overnight recovery. No thunderstorm threats today
and Monday, with the best chances Tuesday afternoon with isolated
thunderstorms developing across the Upper Tanana Valley and
Fortymile Country.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no concerns at this time. South of the Brooks Range,
most rivers are open with a few north of the Yukon River reporting
residual ice running downriver. There is still some in place ice
at the mouth of rivers draining into Kotzebue Sound. Otherwise,
north of the Brooks Range, rivers remain frozen. Go to
www.weather.gov/fairbanks or www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest
information.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

RZ MAY 21