Brisk Wind Advisory 40, NWS Fairbanks, AK

440 
FZAK52 PAFG 281324
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
424 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-290315-
424 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure extends from the Siberian Arctic across the Chukchi
Sea and northwest coast with weak low pressure over the eastern
Beaufort Sea. A 976 mb low will move from the central Bering to
into the Eastern Bering Sea and into Bristol Bay by Friday morning.

$$

PKZ200-290315-
Norton Sound-
424 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-290315-
Dall Point to Wales-
424 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 40 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 40 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-290315-
Kotzebue Sound-
424 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-290315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
424 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 30 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 25 kt.  

$$

Jan 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
127 PM AKST Wed Jan 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather front associated with a strong low in the Bering Sea
will impact the southwest coast today, bringing light snow and
gusty winds to the region. Impacts are expected to be minimal for
most areas, though St. Lawrence Island is experiencing blizzard
conditions due to high winds and blowing snow. Snow will gradually
move inland tonight into Thursday, with light accumulation
expected for portions of the Interior. Areas with snow and cloud
cover will see near average temperatures, but cold is expected to
make a return late in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft 500 mb...
A very busy synoptic pattern will feature the interaction of
several systems, which will have a significant impact on the
forecast, particularly late in the weekend. A high amplitude ridge
extending from the north Pacific, across the Western interior of
Alaska, and into the Siberian Arctic is being effectively cut in
half. A deep longwave trough anchored by a 501 dam height minima
in the central Bering Sea will progress east as an Arctic trough
swings down from the Beaufort Sea. The energy from this Arctic
system will amplify the Bering trough and effectively cut off the
high pressure in the Siberian Arctic. Deep longwave troughing will
progress east to encompass much of the state by Friday. A second
high amplitude ridge will move into the eastern Bering Sea Sunday.
The forecast beyond this point becomes tricky as several height
minima swirling about in the Beaufort sea will interact with the
ridge and cause the longwave pattern to further amplify. Placement
and strength of these features will determine exactly how cold
temperatures will get early in the week.

Models...
Again, there are no major discrepancies in guidance through
Sunday, but the aforementioned interaction of the next ridge and
Arctic lows will dictate the weather later this weekend. ECMWF
and GFS solutions seem to have met in the middle compared to their
previous runs, though the GFS still keeps the Arctic low closed
off and fairly deep at 507 dam over the lower Yukon Valley Monday.
This would produce weak southerly flow over the central and
eastern Interior and help moderate temperatures somewhat. The
ECMWF merges the low into the longwave trough much more quickly,
causing it to further amplify southward. This would support weak
flow over the Interior and the intrusion of colder air. The
Canadian model takes this to the extreme and supports a very deep
persistent Arctic troughing pattern throughout the week. We will
continue to lean in the direction of the ECMWF, as this has been
somewhat consistent and still the middle ground solution with
regard to extreme temperatures.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A weak surface low over the Mackenzie Delta will continue to
support light east winds along with broken cloud cover and a few
flurries for much of the North Slope. Weather will remain
generally benign over the next few days, though expect a gradual
increase in northeast as deep low pressure moves into the eastern
Bering Sea. Temperatures will assume a steady drop going into the
weekend, with some of the coldest temperatures of the year to
follow early next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong weather front associated with a 969 mb low situated
roughly 350 nm southwest of St. Matthew Island is tracking onshore
this afternoon, impacting the Y-K Delta and St. Lawrence Island.
Strong winds up to 50 mph on St. Lawrence Island combined with
heavy snow at times is resulting in blizzard conditions, so a
Blizzard Warning is in effect through midnight. The front will
continue to push inland and weaken. Light snow will persist
through Friday and taper off into the weekend. Total accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches are expected for much of the region south of the
Bering Strait to Ambler. Elevated areas of the Kuskokwim Range
could see up to 6 inches locally though Saturday. Frigid
temperatures are expected to follow beginning Sunday as Arctic air
spills southward.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Below average temperatures will persist today and this evening,
but will begin to moderate late tonight and Thursday as clouds and
light snow associated with the aforementioned front moves east
out of the Western Interior. Light snow will accompany the front
as it tracks north of the Alaska Range late Thursday into Friday,
though accumulations will be minimal due to weak southerly flow
aloft. Expect seasonal temperatures through the weekend but a
return to below normal temperatures are expected across much of
the Interior early next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning for AKZ213.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

COWMAN JAN 21