Brisk Wind Advisory 36, NWS Fairbanks, AK

946 
FZAK52 PAFG 242317
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
217 PM AKST Sun Jan 24 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-251500-
217 PM AKST Sun Jan 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1014 mb low near Point Hope will move W and dissipate. Weak high
pressure will move over the Bering Strait and Norton Sound 
tonight. A decaying weather front will move to the lie from the 
Gulf of Anadyr to the southwest mainland Mon. 

$$

PKZ200-251500-
Norton Sound-
217 PM AKST Sun Jan 24 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt becoming NE. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 5 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-251500-
Dall Point to Wales-
217 PM AKST Sun Jan 24 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt...except 35 kt W of St Lawrence Island. 
Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 40 kt. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-251500-
Kotzebue Sound-
217 PM AKST Sun Jan 24 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 5 kt becoming E. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-251500-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
217 PM AKST Sun Jan 24 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt becoming SE. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 30 kt.  

$$

SDB Jan 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
118 PM AKST Sat Jan 23 2021

SYNOPSIS...Activity mostly confined to the West Coast with just
some remnants of the current system moving into the Western
Arctic, and Interior. No significant changes in the Arctic with
onshore flow slowly weakening. Temperatures will be cooling.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Solutions are in pretty good agreement with
only some minor differences in location and strength of the major
features that will have little impact on the short term forecast.
There is some divergence in the early midrange as solutions differ
on the strength of a shortwave that will move up the West Coast
Tuesday. Moving into the late midrange and extended solutions come
back together though they differ on the strength of the primary
low aloft, by around 10 dam, that will be moving into the Central
Bering Sea. Surface solutions are similar and show similar trends.
Will be leaning on a general blend of the solutions for
precipitation today as they have all come back into line with
each other. Not much change in the current temperature grids as
trends look good, so will only tweak a few locations to match
current temperatures.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging extends south from near the North
Pole over the Eastern Arctic Coast to a 538 dam high over Atigun
Pass, then southeast to a 535 dam high over the AlCan Border
Crossing and British Columbia. Troughing extends southeast from
the Chukotsk Peninsula to a 520 dam low over Scammon Bay, a 521
dam low over Dillingham, and a 521 dam 100 nm south of Seward,
and southeast. A inverted trough extends north over the Beaufort
Sea from a 525 dam low 100 nm north of MacKenzie Bay. Ridging is
pushing north over the Central Aleutians and the Gulf of Anadyr
with a 500 dam low nearing the Western Aleutians. By Sunday
afternoon the ridging will extends south from the North Pole over
the Western Arctic to a 541 dam high 150 nm north of Wainwright
to a 539 dam high over Anaktuvuk Pass to a 538 am high over Denali
as it will be coming into phase with the ridging that was over
the Central Aleutians and has moved over the Eastern Bering Sea
and Alaska Peninsula. The troughing will split with the low near
Seward moving east over the Southeast Panhandle Coast, while the
low over the Lower Yukon Delta will move north over the Bering
Strait at 526 dam. By Monday afternoon the troughing over the
Beaufort Sea will be digging southwest over the Central and
Eastern Interior. The ridging will be pushed west with a 536 dam
high over the Western Arctic and ridging extending south to a 535
dam high over the Kuskokwim Delta. At 850 hpa...Temperatures
cooling as cold air pushes into the Eastern Interior out of
Canada, and wraps around a low aloft that is moving north over the
Chukchi Sea. By Monday afternoon the -10C isotherm will lie from
McCarthy to Minchumina to Red Dog, then southwest through the
Western Bering Strait.

Surface...Broad cyclonic flow over the state with a 992 mb low
near Prince William Sound and a 1008 mb low 250 nm northwest of
Wrangel Island. High pressure continues to push south over the
Eastern Arctic Coast from a 1045 mb high 900 nm north of
Demarcation Point. High pressure has also moved over the Eastern
Bering Sea. Weak leeside troughing north of the Alaska Range
today will continue to weaken. High pressure will continue to push
in over the Upper Tanana Valley and the Upper Yukon Flats with a
1015 mb high in the Yukon Territory. High pressure will be
building over the southwest and pushing into the Central Interior
as a 1017 mb high builds near Anvik, and a 1017 mb high builds
near Beaver. The low pressure over the West Coast today will move
up the coast with a 1010 mb low near Red Dog, and a 1013 mb low
lingering in Norton Sound, while the low near Prince William Sound
will move southeast as it weakens. By Sunday afternoon high
pressure over the Eastern Arctic will weaken as the high pulls
back to the north, the low pressure over the West Coast will
weaken with a 1016 mb low hanging on near Kivalina, but moving
north. High pressure will continue to build over mainland Alaska
with a 1022 mb high in the Upper Yukon Flats, and a 1019 mb high
in the Upper Kuskokwim Basin. Weak leeside troughing will remain
in place north of the Alaska Range as high pressure builds over
the Copper River Basin.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Some blowing snow impacting
visibility, but not significantly. Stratus has moved out in a few
areas, but expect it to return sooner than later. Low moving up
the West Coast will bring some slightly stronger winds to areas
west of Utqiagvik and may produce some ground blizzard conditions
around Point Lay as the winds kick up to 20 to 30 mph from the
east tonight diminishing late Sunday. Winds in the coastal areas
will generally be northeast to east at 10 to 20 mph with winds
diminishing on the Eastern Arctic Coast tonight. Inland winds
variable to 10 mph. Temperatures will fall significantly from
Umiat east Sunday night with lows10 to 25 below Monday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...Snow will continue in the
Chukchi Sea Region as it diminishes in the Norton Sound Region
this evening. Some light snow in the Middle Yukon will persist
into Sunday afternoon before it tapers off. Generally north winds
to 15 mph on the Capes and St Lawrence Island with south of
variable winds to 10 mph for the remainder of the area. Cool air
wrapping in around the low moving up the Coast will bring
temperatures cooler temperatures by late Sunday to most areas.

Central and Eastern Interior...Some clouds with a slight chance
of snow or a flurry Sunday, then a clearing and cooling trend
starting Sunday night that will see temperatures falling into the
teens and 20s below by Tuesday morning. Some gusty winds to 35 mph
near the Alaska Range, but generally variable winds to 10 mph.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A strong weather front will
move to the West Coast Wednesday bringing the potential for some
mixed precipitation to the Lower Yukon Delta and heavy snow to
areas to the north. The front may push into the Interior, but at
this time confidence is low that it will spread snow to the
Central and Eastern Interior south of the Yukon River. Northeast
winds on the Summits south of the Yukon River Tuesday and
Wednesday may create some travel issues with blowing snow reducing
visibility. Strong winds developing near the Alaska Range
Wednesday night with gusts around 60 mph. High pressure will
persist in the Arctic with lighter winds, and stratus and fog
prevailing.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ213.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB JAN 21