Brisk Wind Advisory 34, NWS Fairbanks, AK

259 
FZAK52 PAFG 231330
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
430 AM AKST Sat Jan 23 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-240315-
430 AM AKST Sat Jan 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1003 mb low near Wrangel Island will move to 200 NM northwest 
of Wrangel Island as low by this evening, then continue moving 
northwest. A weather front stretching from this low to Cape 
Lisburne to the Yukon Delta will persist through Sun. A low in the
southeast Bering Sea will move to the Yukon Delta as a 1000 MB 
low by this evening, then move to Norton Sound as a 1007 mb low by
Sun evening. This low will weaken on Mon.

$$

PKZ200-240315-
Norton Sound-
430 AM AKST Sat Jan 23 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-240315-
Dall Point to Wales-
430 AM AKST Sat Jan 23 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...NW winds 25 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 25 kt. 
.WED...E winds 35 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-240315-
Kotzebue Sound-
430 AM AKST Sat Jan 23 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 5 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-240315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
430 AM AKST Sat Jan 23 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt.  

$$

Jan 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
543 AM AKST Fri Jan 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern will continue for the West Coast and the
Western Interior as the next in a series of weather systems moves
north along the coast bringing snow and possibly freezing rain.
Gusty winds along the Arctic Coast will cause reductions in
visibiltiy today due to blowing snow. Breezy southerly gap winds
will continue today through passes in the Alaska Range. Elsewhere
in the Central and Eastern Interior, we expect a relatively quiet
day today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 22/00 UTC model suite generally initialized well when compared
to observational data. In keeping with recent trends, the models
are in decent agreement for around the first 24 hours of the
forecast periods; however, they start to differ thereafter. In
this case, the NAM is more enthusiastic about moving a front and
associated snowfall east into the Central Interior Saturday night
and Sunday, while the GFS and the ECMWF keep the snow mostly
confined to the Western Interior. Because of model uncertainty,
we will utilize a blend of the operational models rather than one
deterministic model for the forecast today.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a ridge is currently in place eastern half of
the forecast area, with the ridge axis running along the Canadian
Border. A 511 dam low is currently over the central Aleutians with
a shortwave trough over the Yukon Delta. The shortwave trough
will move north along the coast today, with the low moving to
near Nunivak Island by Saturday morning, and to near Norton Sound
by Saturday afternoon. The ridge will build northwest today and
Saturday and will stretch from Utqiagvik to Northway by Saturday
afternoon.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Gusty southerly gap winds with gusts up to 60 mph will continue
today into tonight near passes in the Alaska Range. The ongoing
Wind Advisories for zones 225 and 226 look to be in good shape.
Elsewhere the weather will be relatively quiet today into
Saturday (although areas northwest of Tanana could see a little
bit of light snow today). Chances for snow will increase Saturday
night and Sunday as a front pushes east across the area.
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the
weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Gusty easterly winds will cause reductions in visibility due to
blowing snow from Utqiagvik east today. Gusty winds will persist
into Saturday east of Deadhorse. The Winter Weather Advisories
that are out for the Beaufort Sea Coast look to be in good shape.
A shortwave will bring snow to the western Brooks Range tonight
(west of the Dalton Highway), snow will be locally heavy on the
south side of the range. Coastal areas to the west of Utqiagvik
will also see snow overnight tonight. Above normal temperatures
are expected through the weekend, although a cooling trend is
expected during that time period.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The active weather pattern continue for the area today. A
shortwave will push to the north today bringing snow. Freezing
rain may mix with snow at times south of a line from Nome to
Galena. Snowfall amounts with this system will be rather
variable, with the heaviest snow expected in the Nulato Hills, in
the preferred upslope area north of Nome and in the Kobuk and
Noatak Valleys. Winds will be lighter today, so blowing snow will
be less of a concern than yesterday. The next system will push
north into the Yukon Delta late this evening. This front will then
move to the northeast on Saturday. This system looks to bring
another 4 inches of snow to the lower Yukon Valley late tonight
and early Saturday. The models still differ on the placement of
snow as this front pushes into the Western Interior on Saturday.
Temperatures today will be well above normal, with areas south of
Nome seeing highs above freezing. A cooling trend is expected for
Saturday and Sunday, but temperatures will remain above normal
through the weekend.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Northerly winds will increase through the Bering Strait on
Monday. A strong low looks to push across the Bering Sea Tuesday
into Wednesday, keeping the potential for gusty winds along the
West Coast. Cold air looks to push to the south for the second
half of next week, which has the potential to bring below normal
temperatures for the Interior and the North Slope.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ216-AKZ217.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ210-AKZ215.

Gale Warning for PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.

&&

JAN 21