Brisk Wind Advisory 32, NWS Fairbanks, AK

161 
FZAK52 PAFG 230104
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
404 PM AKST Fri Jan 22 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-231600-
404 PM AKST Fri Jan 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 997 mb near Wrangel Island will move to 200 NM northwest of
Wrangel Island as a 1003 mb low by 3pm Sat, then continue moving
northwest. A weather front stretching from this low to Cape
Lisburne to the Yukon Delta will persist through Sun. A low in 
the southeast Sering Sea will move to the Yukon Delta as a 1000 MB
low by 3pm Sat, then move to Norton SOund as a 1007 mb low by 3pm
Sun. This low will weaken on Mon. 

$$

PKZ200-231600-
Norton Sound-
404 PM AKST Fri Jan 22 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Snow. Freezing rain. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-231600-
Dall Point to Wales-
404 PM AKST Fri Jan 22 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...N winds 30 kt increasing to 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. 
Vsby 1 NM or less.
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 45 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-231600-
Kotzebue Sound-
404 PM AKST Fri Jan 22 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Snow. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-231600-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
404 PM AKST Fri Jan 22 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Snow.
.SAT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.SUN...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 30 kt.  

$$

Jan 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
410 PM AKST Thu Jan 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of storms moving north over the West Coast and Western
Interior today through Sat will bring periods of heavy snow to
much of the West Coast and Western Interior through Fri night or
Sat. Expect another 4-8 inches in most of the West Coast and
Western Interior, with another 10 inches along the Nulato Hills.
Strong winds and low visibility in blowing snow now occuring from
the Bering Strait to Utqiagvik will spread east to Kaktovik this
evening, but diminish south of Point Lay tonight. There will be
periods of rain and freezing rain from Nome to Galena south
through Fri. Strong winds through AK Range passes will persist
into Sat AM.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough over the Bering
and NW Pacific and a strong ridge over the Ern Pacific and
Mainland AK. That pattern will persist into the weekend, and allow
a series of strong short wave trough to move north over Western
Alaska through the weekend, and keep most of Nrn AK much warmer,
winder and wetter than normal.

850 MB temps are above freezing over the southern Interior west of
Fairbanks today through Fri, then over most of the Eastern
Interior on Sat, before cooling dramatically on Sun.

Surface...
A 985 mb low near Provideniya will move to 200 NM west
of Cape Lisburne as a 997 mb low by 3pm Fri, then to 200 NM north
of Wrangel Island as a 1005 mb low by 3pm Sat, then continue
moving northwest. Southeast Gales along and northwest of this low
will spread northeast tonight but decrease to 25-30kt. This is
causing blowing snow over NW Alaska that will spread east along
the Arctic Coast this evening.

A second low now in the southeast Bering Sea will move to the
Seward Peninsula as a 1001 mb low by 3pm Fri then persist into
Sat. This is causing heavy precip to spread over the SW Interior
and YK Delta now that will spread north along the West Coast and
Wrn Interior tonight and Fri. There will be periods of rain and
freezing rain from Nome to Galena south through Fri, with rain at
times in zones 212, 214 and 215 tonight.

A third low will move into the southeast Bering Sea on Fri,
then move to the Yukon Delta as a 989 mb low by 3pm Sat. This will
bring more snow to the SW Alaska Fri and spreading north along the
West Coast Fri night and Sat.

High pressure over the Copper Basin and Southern Yukon Territory
will persist into Sat AM and keep strong south winds through AK
range passes until then.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z. Start to see significant
differences aloft by Fri as the GFS and NAM keep the low aloft in
the SE Bering Sea deeper, while the ECMF weakens the low aloft
much more quickly. The NAM and GFS start to differ on location of
the low aloft Sat. At this time favor the GFS and NAM solutions
aloft through Fri given that the vertically stacked structure of
this low means it should weaken more slowly. For Sat into Sun
prefer the GFS solution aloft as as it moves this low further to
the north than the NAM, which makes more sense given the high
amplitude long wave pattern and south flow aloft. Given the
significant difference in model solutions on the weekend, will
give a nudge to the NAM precip while mainly using the GFS.

For precip, will use a blend of the NAM and GFS for location and
amounts through Fri afternoon, then use 75% GFS and 25% NAM for
precip amounts and location for Fri night through Sun.

At the surface at 18Z, all models verify 3-4 mb too weak on the
central pressure of the low just southwest of Gambell. Models are
also a few mb too weak on high pressure over the Copper Basin and
Southern Yukon Territory, but verify well most other features.
Expect that the low will remain a bit deeper than models indicate
as it moves north through Fri, and thus a bit higher winds near
the low center over NW Alaska. The Canadian model keeps this low a
bit stronger than other models through Fri, and has a bit
stronger winds over the West Coast today, and Arctic Coast today
through Fri, so will use Canadians models winds through Fri in NW
AK. Will keep gap winds through AK Range Passes through Sat AM to
reflect that pressure gradient which is stronger than models
indicate. As the next strong low moves into the southeast Bering
Sea Fri and to the Yukon Delta on Sat and then north on Sun, will
use the GFS for surface pattern and winds to reflect the preferred
solution aloft.

Bottom line for models is will use a blend of the NAM and GFS for
temps, precip, clouds through Fri afternoon, then use the GFS for
most fields Fri night through Sun, with just a a 25% blend of the
NAM precip Fri night through Sun to reflect large model
uncertainty. Will use the Canadian Model for winds through Fri
afternoon, then the GFS model from Fri night into Sun, but keep
strong gap flow through AK Range passes through Sat AM.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Sea levels will be 2-3 feet above normal south of the Bering
Strait through tonight but no flooding expected due to ice
dampening. No other issues expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ213-
AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ210-
AKZ214.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

JB JAN 21