Brisk Wind Advisory 20, NWS Fairbanks, AK

866 
FZAK51 PAFG 172359
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-181515-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1045 mb high over the high Arctic will keep east winds across 
the Arctic through Mon night while a trough of low pressure 
remains over the Brooks Range through Mon night. A low will emerge
off the Lisburne Peninsula and move north Tue.

$$

PKZ225-181515-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-181515-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-181515-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...E winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-181515-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...E winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-181515-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...E winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

Jan 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
157 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The same pattern remain in place as the southerly Gulf of Alaska
flow dominates the Interior. This continues to support gusty
southerly AK Range gap winds, a Tanana Valley Jet, east winds
along the North Slope, and north winds down the Bering Strait
Coast. Weather impacts are minimal the next couple days as light
snow moves into the West Coast, with increasing gap winds over the
AK Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A weakening and shearing out shortwave trough is stalled out over
the North Slope with a shortwave ridge axis building into the
Interior right on its heels. Another weakening Gulf of Alaska
cyclone is moving up along the coast as the associated 973 mb
surface low currently near the AKPEN slowly tracks northward.
Warming downslope winds over the AK Range is supporting 30-45 mph
southerly winds through the favored gaps. Over the far reaches of
Eastern Siberia, there is a deepening arctic trough aloft, and
this feature will be the "anchor" for a pattern shift as we head
into the next week.

Model Discussion...
The numerical models remain in very good agreement for the next
few days. There is still some disagreement with a developing
inverted trough axis as a series of weak shortwaves moves over the
baroclinic zone, bringing snow to the West Coast. The GFS is
still the farthest west outlier with the ECMWF and NAM is better
agreement, and also more stable run by run.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Nothing new as southerly flow continues to dominate with above
average temps, southerly gap winds in the AK Range, and mostly
dry weather. Gap winds increase as chinook warming commences and
will peak Sunday night into the 50-65 mph range through Windy and
Isabel Passes. Light snow will move through the Upper Koyukuk
Valley and will clip the Dalton highway, as well, as the first
front tracks north of Livengood. A powerful cyclone moves into the
Gulf of Alaska on Monday and will enhance the Tanana Valley Jet
with increasing northeast winds over the remainder of the
Interior.

Monday evening is looking rather interesting as the front cross
the AK Range and a mid level low closes off. Mixed precipitation
will be possible north of the AK Range as temps may push into the
low 30s for a brief period where the winds are strong enough to
remove inversions. Light snow moves back in as southwest flow
brings in much colder air behind the chinook warming event. This
looks to be the best shot for light snow for the Tanana Valley in
a long time.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Quiet weather for the most part over the region with only some
light snow showers around Kotzebue and Norton Sound, and some
local areas of blowing snow along the Bering Coast. The pattern
will shift to more snow as a west coast trough deepens and a
series of weak lows over Bristol Bay move north, bringing rounds
of light snow to the whole area Sunday morning and lasting
through Tuesday as the upper trough moves east. Blowing and
drifting will increase again along the Bering Coast as north winds
will remain blustery.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
The east to northeast pressure gradient will continue through
Tuesday with areas of local blowing and drifting snow along the
Arctic coast. Light snow showers this evening will dissipate as
the associated weak upper level disturbance tracks away from the
coast. Light snow will move over the Western Arctic Sunday evening
and will continue on and off through Tuesday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The extended period forecast beginning early next week will be in
the midst of a shift in the large scale synoptic pattern as the
strong ridging over the Interior shifts east and the storm track
shifts from the Gulf of Alaska to the Bering Sea. A series of
frontal systems will move from the Bering into the Mainland next
week into the weekend. For now, expect an active pattern, but with
so much uncertainty with the individual systems, there is low
confidence beyond the fact it will be active with periodic threats
for snow and stormy coastal weather.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ245.

&&

AHSENMACHER JAN 21