Brisk Wind Advisory 162, NWS Fairbanks, AK

201 
FZAK51 PAFG 251244
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
444 AM AKDT Sun Apr 25 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-260215-
444 AM AKDT Sun Apr 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1023 mb high 400 nm north of Demarcation Point will track 
into the high Canadian Arctic by this evening. A weather front will move
south over the Beaufort Sea today, and inland tonight into 
Monday.

$$

PKZ225-260215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
444 AM AKDT Sun Apr 25 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 5 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 5 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-260215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
444 AM AKDT Sun Apr 25 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 5 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 5 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-260215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
444 AM AKDT Sun Apr 25 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-260215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
444 AM AKDT Sun Apr 25 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-260215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
444 AM AKDT Sun Apr 25 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

Apr 21

861 
FZAK51 PAFG 252307
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
307 PM AKDT Sun Apr 25 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-261430-
307 PM AKDT Sun Apr 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1032 mb high near the pole will strengthen to 1036 mb and move 
into the eastern Beaufort Sea Monday afternoon. A weather front
will move south across the Beaufort coast today into tonight. A
1007 mb low will move from Siberia into the Chukchi Sea Tuesday 
afternoon, then to near Point Lay Wednesday.

$$

PKZ225-261430-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
307 PM AKDT Sun Apr 25 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 5 kt becoming N. 
.MON...N winds 5 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-261430-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
307 PM AKDT Sun Apr 25 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt becoming NE. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-261430-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
307 PM AKDT Sun Apr 25 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-261430-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
307 PM AKDT Sun Apr 25 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-261430-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
307 PM AKDT Sun Apr 25 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

Apr 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
617 AM AKDT Sat Apr 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A nice weekend is expected for most of northern Alaska as high
pressure remains in place over the area. With the high in place,
we expect dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The warm
temperatures across the area this weekend will help to accelerate
snow melt and river breakup process across much of the area.
Strong easterly winds are expected to develop along the eastern
Arctic Coast Sunday night and will continue into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 24/00 UTC model suite initialized well when compared to
surface observational data. Looking at RAOB data, the models
continue to initialize heights a bit too low, implying a stronger
ridge aloft than advertised by the models. There is decent model
agreement through the weekend, however, they start to diverge
early next week. We made few changes to the inherited forecast.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a broad 560 dam high currently covers much of
northern Alaska. This high looks to remain in place through the
weekend. 500 mb heights over Northern Alaska will fall on Monday
as the high center moves north into the Arctic and a trough skirts
the eastern Interior as it moves south along the Canadian Border.
A 516 dam low looks to push over the Bering Strait region late in
the week.

Central and Eastern Interior...
High pressure over the area will bring sunny skies for the weekend
along with above normal high temperatures. Highs this weekend will
range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s, with lows in the upper 20s
to lower 30s. Temperatures will cool for Monday and Tuesday as a
trough clips the far eastern Interior as it moves south along the
ALCan Border. Temperatures in the eastern Interior for Monday and
Tuesday will range from the upper 40s to upper 50s, with the
coolest temperatures expected in the far eastern Interior.
Generally light east to northeasterly winds are anticipated across
the Interior this weekend. The area around Delta Junction could
see gusts up to 25 mph locally as gusty easterly winds during the
afternoon and evening hours this weekend as a weak thermal trough
develops during the daytime hours along the north side of the
Alaska Range. The pressure gradient over the Interior looks to
tighten up Monday afternoon as a surface high builds over the
Yukon Territory and a low approaches Bristol Bay from the south.
This will result in stronger east to northeasterly winds for
Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Patchy fog and low ceilings will be seen at times early this
morning along the coast. High pressure will dominate the weather
today resulting in temperatures 10 or more degrees above
climatological normal values. Highs today will be in the upper 20s
to lower 30s along the coast, with highs in the 40s near the
Brooks Range. Lows tonight will be in the single digits above zero
along the coast, with lows in the teens to lower 20s closer to
the Brooks Range. Temperatures will cool slightly for Sunday and
Monday. Light southerly winds are expected this morning. Winds
will become easterly this afternoon and evening. On Sunday,
easterly winds will pick up east of Utqiagvik, with gusts of 30 to
40 mph possible along the Beaufort Sea Coast. Winds will continue
to increase across the eastern Arctic Sunday night, with gusts as
high as 50 mph possible east of Deadhorse during the day on may cause
some reductions in visibility, especially east of Deadhorse. In
addition, gusty southerly gap winds are expected to develop in the
Brooks Range Monday into Monday night. Onshore winds will bring
fog to areas along the coast, primarily east of Utqiagvik, tonight
into Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Isolated showers today for St. Lawrence Island and the Yukon
Delta. Showers will become more numerous tonight for St. Lawrence
Island as a shortwave moves overhead. High pressure will dominate
over the rest of the area into early next week. This will bring
mainly clear skies and temperatures above climatological normal.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...
A weather system looks to bring increased chances for
precipitation to the West Coast on Wednesday and into the Western
Interior Wednesday night. The models disagree on the exact
details, with the GFS pushing the precipitation farther inland
than the ECMWF. Thereafter, high pressure looks to again dominate
the forecast for much of the forecast area as we go into next
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High temperatures this weekend will be in the 50s to mid 60s in
the Interior with Relative Humidity values falling into the 20 to
30 percent range (a few isolated spots could drop into the upper
teens). Temperatures will cool slightly for Monday and Tuesday.
Relative Humidity recovery will be fair overnight. Winds will be
generally light and northeasterly this weekend. The area near
Delta Junction will be an exception, with east winds gusting to
around 25 mph during the afternoon and evening hours today and
Sunday. The east to northeasterly winds look to be a little bit
stronger on Monday. No significant precipitation expected through
the middle of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Breakup continues as the temperatures in the Central and Eastern
Interior will generally be above climatological normals during the
day, and near or above normal climatological temperatures
overnight allowing the melting process to be almost continuous.
Smaller streams, creeks, and sloughs continue to open up as melt
runoff is making it into them, and water is running on top of ice
in some of them, so caution should be used around them. River Ice
will break down much faster that lake ice as upwelling can erode
the ice from the bottom rapidly without being visible, and dirty
runoff on top of the ice can enhance melting, so use extreme
caution.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

APR 21