Brisk Wind Advisory 149, NWS Fairbanks, AK

960 
FZAK51 PAFG 122330
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
330 PM AKDT Mon Apr 12 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-131415-
330 PM AKDT Mon Apr 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A trough of low pressure along the coast will persist through
Wednesday. 

$$

PKZ225-131415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
330 PM AKDT Mon Apr 12 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Snow.
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...S winds 35 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-131415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
330 PM AKDT Mon Apr 12 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 35 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-131415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
330 PM AKDT Mon Apr 12 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 5 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-131415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
330 PM AKDT Mon Apr 12 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-131415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
330 PM AKDT Mon Apr 12 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

Apr 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
338 PM AKDT Sun Apr 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A winter storm continues to track up and along the West Coast
today bringing heavy snow, blowing snow, and windy conditions to
parts of the coast and Western Interior. Strong southerly gap
winds are occurring, including around Delta Junction, which will
aid the Interior remaining precipitation free warming up into
this week. Gusty winds can also be expected for higher terrain in
Northern Alaska into tomorrow and will begin to increase out of
the east for the Arctic Coast early Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 11/12Z models initialized well at the surface and aloft at
500 mb. Models in decent agreement through Tuesday until they
diverge on a low entering the Gulf of Alaska.

Upper Levels...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a 504 dam low is just southwest of St. Matthew
Island and a 494 dam low in the high Arctic. Between these, a
ridge extends up from the Panhandle NW to the Chukchi Sea. Into
the day today, southerly flow aloft will set in place for the
Interior, driving increasing temperatures, drier weather, and
windy conditions through the Passes into this week.

After a shortwave trough traverses from Bristol Bay to the Seward
Peninsula tonight, the 504 dam low will slowly move northward
towards St. Lawrence Island and weaken as it tracks to the Gulf of
Anadyr by early Tuesday and the 494 dam low in the Beaufort Sea will
exit to the Pole. Pretty much big picture pattern-wise, a trough
over the Bering Sea and a ridge with much higher heights aloft
than previous days for the rest of the state for this week.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Temperatures will take a turn for much warmer than what they have
been for this week. Strong southerly flow/chinook winds today and
again by mid week will support temperatures reaching into the 40's
for the first time since October for many places. This will also
prevent any precipitation for the Central and Eastern Interior for
the next through Tuesday. Winds are already gusting around
hurricane force in Isabel Pass and will persist until Monday
afternoon. Expect up to 65 mph gusts along the Parks Highway pass
as well. The winds there should weaken sooner, around Monday
morning. As expected with this pattern, the Tanana Valley Jet is
currently blowing through Delta Junction and will max gust over 50
mph overnight. Also, expect potential for locally heavy snow and
drifting snow over the very southern part of Isabel Pass toward
Fielding Lake. Snow is moving into the Upper Koyukuk and will only
extend as far south as Tanana. The southern Brooks Range will
also see snow including the southern part of Atigun Pass through
Monday. Expect some blowing and drifting over the Dalton summits,
as well, so travelers should prepare for winter conditions.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A 980 mb low in the central Bering this afternoon is what's
responsible for Winter Storm and even blizzard conditions along
some parts of the coasts. Strong, easterly offshore winds is
causing blowing snow and reduced visibility down to one quarter
mile at times and will last into early Monday. Snow will then
taper off as the low weakens into Monday afternoon. Before then,
additional snowfall accumulations of up to one foot and locally
over one foot expected in upslope prone higher terrain north of
Nome, in the Nulato Hills, and the southern slopes of the western
Brooks Range.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Mostly clear conditions east of Utqiagvik today, while clouds
build into the western Arctic. Light accumulation of only up to 2
inches of snow west of Wainwright through Tuesday, as the system
currently impacting the West Coast pulls north. An easterly
gradient will tighten for the coast early Monday, but will quickly
relax into Monday night when winds turn more northerly. 20 to 25
mph with gusts up to 30 mph is possible with reduced visibility
due to blowing snow. The strongest winds will be from Point Lay to
Cape Lisburne where gusts up to 45 mph are possible.

Extended Range Forecast Days 4-7...
We will be monitoring a low pressure system forecast to enter the
Gulf of Alaska Wednesday-Thursday, impact Southcentral, thus,
bring another round of southerly gap winds through the Alaska
Range Passes and downsloping/warming conditions for the Interior.
Models are not in total agreement yet, but if flow aloft does turn
more southeasterly, and with day time temperatures above
freezing, there's a slight chance of a rain/snow mix in the
Interior. Stay tuned for updates.

Beyond that, models really diverge as far as upper level flow and
disturbances in that flow. They do, however, hint at more zonal
flow with shortwave troughs potentially impacting the Arctic
Coast next weekend time-frame.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ225.

High Wind Warning for AKZ226.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ211-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ206-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ212-
AKZ218-AKZ219.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

KS APR 21