Small Craft Advisory 891, NWS Anchorage, AK

331 
FZAK52 PAFC 091257
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-100145-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 mb low 60 nm north of Adak moves into the North Pacific as 
it weakens Tue afternoon. A 996 mb low forms 90 nm west of Dutch
Harbor Tue night and moves 100 nm west of Kodiak at 1001 mb Wed 
night, then moves into the Western Gulf Thu morning.

$$

PKZ150-100145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-100145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 15
kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers and 
snow.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-100145-
Bristol Bay-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-100145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt except N 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-100145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-100145-
Unalaska Bay-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-100145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ173-100145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-100145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. Seas 10
ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-100145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-100145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ177-100145-
Adak to Kiska-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-100145-
Kiska to Attu-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-100145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-100145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-100145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-100145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

079 
FZAK52 PAFC 092356
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
256 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-101300-
256 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 992 mb low 30 nm south of Seguam Island moves into the North 
Pacific to merge with a 981 mb North Pacific low Thu morning. High 
pressure spreads over the Aleutians and Bering through Thu 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-101300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
256 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-101300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
256 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt except SE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt except S 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-101300-
Bristol Bay-
256 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-101300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
256 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt except N 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-101300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
256 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-101300-
Unalaska Bay-
256 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-101300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
256 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ173-101300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
256 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ174-101300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
256 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ175-101300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
256 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ176-101300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
256 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ177-101300-
Adak to Kiska-
256 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-101300-
Kiska to Attu-
256 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ179-101300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
256 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-101300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
256 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-101300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
256 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-101300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
256 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
528 AM AKST Mon Nov 8 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level low is in place over the Gulf of Alaska. Several
upper level shortwaves are gradually propagating from east to west
across Southwest, producing some snowfall across the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley. At 300 mb, the jet is well south of the state,
extending across the north Pacific. Farther west over Siberia, a
140 knot jet streak is gradually digging southward, helping to
steer an upper level trough over Kamchatka into the western
Bering. Closer to the surface, low level stratus persists across
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska, as generally weak upper level
flow keeps clouds in place.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions are in good synoptic agreement. In the short term,
the biggest challenge with this forecast is the widespread
low level stratus across the Copper River Basin and Southcentral.
With little upper level forcing, stratus and fog are expected to
stick around. Looking ahead, there is good agreement that a ridge
will approach the western Aleutians midweek while a north Pacific
low lifts into the Gulf. Overall, forecast confidence is average.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Low stratus is expected to linger at least through midday
today, keeping ceilings at IFR. Winds will remain light out of
the north. Ceilings may improve by this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

With the pattern of a low south of the Gulf and high pressure in
the northwest part of the state, there is now a break in the
active weather. The shortwave moving into Kodiak this morning
looks to have mostly weakened with clouds and little if any
precipitation associated with it. The main weather challenge is
now determining when the low stratus clouds around Cook Inlet and
in the Copper River Basin will dissipate. This stratus is quite
widespread over the lower elevations of the Copper River Basin and
may present a challenge in completely clearing out. The main
impact clearing will have will be a sharp drop in temperatures
across the Basin without the cloud cover. Should the Copper River
Basin get the clearing tonight and tomorrow night, temperatures
around Glennallen will drop below zero, perhaps double-digits
below. Cook Inlet is in a similar situation, but there is a better
chance for this stratus to mostly dissipate today. As is the case
with these low stratus situations, there is no guarantee that it
will clear out. As with the Copper River Basin, overnight
temperatures the next two nights will be closely linked to the
loss of the low clouds.

On Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, an upper level low will dig
southward over Bristol Bay and bring in some moisture in the
southwest flow as well as some enhanced lift in association with
the low. This could bring some snow to parts of Southcentral,
though there is still a reasonable amount of uncertainty on
whether the moisture will mostly track up the western Susitna
Valley, or head farther to the east over the Kenai Peninsula and
Anchorage/Mat-Su. This does not look to be a big event, but it is
the next chance for any snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Light snow is developing along the Kuskokwim Delta coast this
morning, including Toksook Bay and Kipnuk, in response to a quick
moving upper level wave moving southwest of Nome. As the wave
continues to trek west of Nunivak Island, precipitation will taper
off and remain primarily offshore for the rest of today. In the
wake of the exiting wave, northerly flow will usher in colder air
across the Southwest mainland through the forecast period. Expect
daytime highs in the teens to the mid 20s and overnight lows in
the single digits to below zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The main feature will be an upper level disturbance moving south
of the Kamchatka Peninsula towards the western Aleutians and
phasing with a low currently situated south of Amchitka. With the
aid of colder air advection, high end northerly, gale force winds
will wrap around the western side of this system with seas
building to 10 to 15 feet late tonight and up to 20 feet by
Tuesday afternoon. The associated front will continue to progress
eastward, bringing a rain/snow mix along the Aleutian Chain
through the forecast period. Winds will lower to small craft with
decreasing waves by Tuesday evening as the low weakens and moves
southward, with a cool and showery pattern likely to persist in
the Aleutians, Pribilofs, and AKPEN through the middle of the
week.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

Aleutians/Bering...An elongated area of low pressure moving south
of the Aleutian Islands early Wednesday will exit into the North
Pacific. Portions of the front on the northern side of this low
may reach gale force in the vicinity of the central and eastern
Aleutians. In the wake of the departing low, gap winds will
develop through the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula which
will have the potential to locally reach gale force. Seas are
expected to remain less than 20 ft through the Day 3 through 5
period.

Gulf of Alaska...A low tracking into the Gulf Thursday night is
likely to produce a large area of gale force winds wrapping its
center in the central Gulf through Friday. Gap winds develop in
the western Gulf Friday morning with the potential to reach gale
force. Seas are expected to remain less than 20 ft.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Mainland Alaska will sit at the center of a highly amplified
longwave trough on Thursday which will produce relatively quiet
and cool conditions for much of the forecast area. However,
significant uncertainty remains with the placement of individual
features within this pattern. A large embedded upper-level low may
produce snow over Southwest Alaska on Thursday, before model
solutions diverge on its evolution. The GFS and Canadian have this
low dive southward, leaving a weaker trough in place, while the
EC keeps it lingering over the mainland, though snowfall rates
decrease. Synoptically, there is good agreement that a surface low
will enter the Gulf late Thursday, however its track depends on
the evolution of the upper low over the Southwest. The GFS and
Canadian solutions track the low into the eastern Gulf, with less
to draw it westward, and keeping impacts minimal beyond gap winds.
However, the EC brings the low ashore on the north Gulf coast,
leading to coastal precipitation from the eastern Kenai Peninsula
eastward.

A stout ridge pushes eastward across the Bering through
the weekend, where conditions remain fairly calm. Cold air and an
accompanying shortwave trough ride atop it into mainland Alaska,
introducing some potential for another round of colder
temperatures late this weekend. However, there are significant
model differences with the strength of this trough. GFS depicts a
stronger feature driving cold Arctic air across the Alaska Range
and dropping 850 mb temperatures to near -13C over Anchorage
Saturday night, while the Canadian shows a weaker feature with
less cold air. The EC instead resolves a separate deep shortwave
which brings temperatures below -10C over Southcentral.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MF
MARINE/LONG TERM...CQ