Small Craft Advisory 878, NWS Anchorage, AK

536 
FZAK51 PAFC 041158
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
358 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-050045-
358 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 981 mb low in Bristol Bay slowly slides to just
east of Kodiak Island at 994 mb Friday morning before falling apart 
200 nm east of Kodiak Island Sat morning. A front lingers across the 
central Gulf today until dissipating Fri afternoon. A new 990 mb low 
moves 215 nm southeast of Cordova Saturday morning. 

$$

PKZ119-050045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
358 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-050045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
358 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 
40 kt in the morning near the coast. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-050045-
Resurrection Bay-
358 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TODAY...S wind to 10 kt becoming variable in the aftenroon. Gusts 
to 40 kt in the morning near Pilot Rock. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow 
showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-050045-
Prince William Sound-
358 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the
afternoon. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-050045-
Port Valdez-
358 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-050045-
Valdez Narrows-
358 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-050045-
Valdez Arm-
358 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-050045-
Passage Canal-
358 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. 
Snow showers with rain.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-050045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
358 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-050045-
Barren Islands East-
358 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ132-050045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
358 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-050045-
Chiniak Bay-
358 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-050045-
Marmot Bay-
358 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-050045-
Shelikof Strait-
358 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-050045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
358 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft after midnight.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-050045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
358 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-050045-
Kachemak Bay-
358 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
523 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An Omega Block currently extends across western North America. The
blocking high currently extends from the Rocky Mountains through
the islands of northwestern Nunavut Territory. The western upper
level trough associated with this Omega Blocking pattern extends
across the Alaskan mainland. This blocking pattern is responsible
for the ample amounts of moisture across Alaska as the blocking
high allows for a south to north jetstream orientation west of the
blocking high. A vertically stacked low is currently stationary
over the northern Bering Sea. This low will continue weakening due
to the lack of synoptic support to sustain this low. A second low
over the western Alaska Peninsula slowly continues to move
northeastward. A third low over the northern Gulf continues to
slowly move northward.

Closer to the surface, radar imagery shows rain and showers
associated with the aforementioned low moving northward across
the northern Gulf. Observations show the precipitation type to be
rain across the coastal and lower lying areas while snow continues
in the mountain ranges. Radar also shows snow showers moving
northward across the western Kuskokwim Delta and across Bristol
Bay. Observations and satellite imagery show ocean-effect snow
showers and snow squalls across the eastern Aleutian Islands.
Observations also show areas of fog across Southcentral this
morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Guidance generally remains in good agreement with respect to the
placement and intensity of synoptic scale features at both the
surface and in the upper levels. The biggest area of uncertainty
is a low that will move northwestward in the eastern Gulf on
Friday and Saturday. Guidance shows different solutions with
respect to the placement and intensity of this low which will
result in lower forecast confidence for the Gulf during this
period. Otherwise, forecast confidence remains above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds continue through 04th/01z.
However, temporary LIFR conditions are likely through 03rd/16z as
observations show patchy fog. Visibility may be reduced to 1/2SM
and ceilings reduced to 500ft inside of fog. MVFR conditions are
expected after 04th/01z as light rain and mist will reduce
visibility to 4SM and ceilings to 2500ft.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 2:
Wednesday through Friday)...

A rather dynamic pattern will unfold over the next couple of days.
One occluded low will move inland through Prince William Sound as
it continues to weaken later today. As it drives inland over the
Copper River Basin, it will pull much of the moisture associated
with an inverted trough (currently over the Kenai Peninsula)
along with it. By late today into Thu, a deep trough over the
Alaska Peninsula will start to slide east. This will serve to pick
up another healthy fetch over the Gulf of Alaska and push it back
into Southcentral. This trough will also feature much colder air
(850 mb temperatures -5 to -10C) as it moves into the area.

At the surface, fog continues to linger across the much of the
area this morning. However, as the aforementioned occluded low
draws nearer early today, it will bring some instability and a
slight turn towards offshore flow. This will cause the fog to
slowly dissipate by late morning. The low will bring continued
rain to most of Prince William Sound and the Cordova area. As it
lifts through later today, winds will shift from SE to SW over
most of the northern Gulf Coast. There could be a brief break in
the rain over places like Whittier and Portage before the next
round of precipitation arrives late this evening.

The broad trough over Alaska Peninsula will push a front across
the Anchorage Bowl late this evening into early Thursday. This
will bring some gusty SE winds across the Turnagain Arm, Knik
River Valley, and even the Anchorage Bowl. The front will allow
the pattern to reorient just enough to set up another continuous
tap of moisture from the North Pacific into Western Prince William
Sound. As we head into Thursday, moisture from the Gulf will be
forced up against the trough/lift from SW AK. The models continue
to struggle with exactly where the heaviest bands of precipitation
set up, but at this time, it looks like the northern Kenai
Peninsula. With some colder air moving in, there will be a threat
that some of the rain could start to turn to snow at lower
elevations. However, it still looks like surface temperatures will
be too warm to allow more than just a couple quick inches of
accumulation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper-level trough extends from the Bering Strait south to the
eastern half of the Aleutian Chain. There is a upper-level low at
the base of the trough moving toward Bristol Bay this morning. An
associated surface low will move across the AKPen by early
afternoon with its associated surface front lifting to the
northern Bristol Bay coast. Snow along the front will move over
Togiak and Dillingham around noon today as colder air remains
locked in across Southwest Alaska. The low will then slow and
stall around Dillingham by Wednesday night as its front lifts
north and west over the Kuskokwim Valley and eventually to the
Kuskokwim Delta by Thursday morning. A couple of inches of snow
are possible along the front with slightly higher amounts for
Dillingham and Togiak as light snow lingers along the coast. The
low then weakens and elongates Thursday afternoon with the snow
tapering off along the coast. Scattered snow showers will linger
across parts of interior Southwest as the upper-level trough
remains over the region.

For the AKPen, a cold, northerly flow in the wake of the trough
will keep conditions unstable, allowing for snow showers to
persist through Friday. A few inches of snow are possible,
especially in areas where snow showers train over the same
location for extended periods of time. Blustery winds may also
reduce visibility at times in conjunction with the heavier snow
showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper-level trough stretching from the Bering Strait south to
the eastern half of the Aleutian Chain will slowly move east over
the next couple of days. The resultant northerly flow will advect
cold air from eastern Russia across the Bering Sea. Snow showers
and gusty northerly winds will prevail through the end of the
week, reinforced by shortwaves embedded within the flow. Both the
snow showers and gusty winds will mainly be confined to the
eastern Bering by the end of the week as a ridge over the western
Bering builds and extends eastward.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday)...

Aleutians/Bering...

There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the track of a low
in the eastern Bering. On Thursday morning, model solutions vary
with placement of the low center. One model shows it in Bristol
Bay while the other brings the low across the Alaska Peninsula and
into the western Gulf, centered southwest of Kodiak Island. This
has resulted in low confidence with resultant wind forecasts
across the eastern Bering and western Gulf. On the backside of
this low, gale force winds can be expected across coastal waters
of the eastern Aleutians and southern AKPEN Friday morning. As for
the central and western Bering: there is high confidence in a
cold air mass arriving over the Bering with northerly flow
expected through Saturday. A ridge moves over the western
Aleutians Saturday morning, only to be forced eastward Saturday
night as the next low approaches the western Aleutians.

Gulf of Alaska...

There is below average confidence in the placement of a low over
the western Gulf Thursday, however winds across the Gulf are not
expected to exceed small craft levels. The low center will track
into the central Gulf by Friday afternoon, keeping small craft
winds in the forecast for the western Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Thursday through
Monday)...

The key features in the long term include a trough in place over
the eastern Bering while a prominent ridge axis extends across the
Alaska-Yukon border. A cold air mass with northerly flow will
persist over the Bering through next weekend. Meanwhile, the upper
level trough will shift slightly eastward over the mainland
Saturday. This will keep a stormy pattern in place for the
southern half of the state as several upper level waves rotate
around the low keeping chances of precipitation in the forecast.
By the early part of next week, the low in the Gulf departs to the
south, offering a break in the pattern and the potential for clear
conditions. Farther west, next week will bring the arrival of
another low over the western Aleutians with abundant moist, southerly
flow expected.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory 101.
MARINE...Gale Warning 150 155 165 170 171 172 179 180 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO/AF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
MARINE/LONG TERM...KO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
354 PM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

AKZ181-041200-
Alaska Peninsula-
Including the cities of Cold Bay and Sand Point
354 PM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY...

Snow showers and gusty northwesterly winds are expected to
persist across the Alaska Peninsula through Friday as an area of
low pressure moves over Bristol Bay and stalls. Gusty winds up to
50 mph across the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon are expected to
continue through Friday. Bands of snow showers will continue to
develop through Friday. Snow showers could be heavy at times
and produce several inches of snow as snow showers redevelop over
the same area for extended periods of time. Visibilities could
also be reduced to as low as one half mile at times due to the
combination of heavy snow and gusty winds. Locations from False
Pass to Port Heiden may be impacted by these adverse conditions.

For the latest forecasts go to www.weather.gov/anchorage.