Small Craft Advisory 848, NWS Anchorage, AK

106 
FZAK52 PAFC 252356
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-261300-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Semisopochnoi volcano, located 140 nm west of Adak, is currently 
active.

A 1000 mb Siberian low will move to Bristol Bay at 990 mb Wednesday 
afternoon. A North Pacific Low at 989 mb low 450 nm southwest of 
Shemya Wednesday morning will move to 400 nm southwest of Adak at 983
mb Wednesday afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-261300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 35 kt. Gusts up to 50 kts out of 
bays and passes. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kts out of bays and passes. Seas 
14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-261300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Gusts up to 50 kts out of bays and passes. 
Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts up to 50 kts out of bays and passes. 
Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-261300-
Bristol Bay-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ165-261300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ170-261300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-261300-
Unalaska Bay-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ172-261300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-261300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 
10 ft. Rain showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-261300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 
13 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-261300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-261300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-261300-
Adak to Kiska-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-261300-
Kiska to Attu-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-261300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-261300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-261300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-261300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SW 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 20 kt becoming N
after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 35 kt. Seas 12
ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

813 
FZAK52 PAFC 261206
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
406 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-270115-
406 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Semisopochnoi volcano, located 140 nm west of Adak, is currently 
active.

A 998 mb low will move to 250 nm west of St Matthew Island at 991 mb
Wednesday afternoon. A North Pacific Low at 992 mb low 350 nm 
southwest of Attu Island Wednesday morning will move to 200 nm south 
of Nikolski at 983 mb Thursday afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-270115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
406 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts up to 50 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ155-270115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
406 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts up to 50 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts up to 50 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-270115-
Bristol Bay-
406 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-270115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
406 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. From
Port Moller E, W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers and snow 
showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ170-270115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
406 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-270115-
Unalaska Bay-
406 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ172-270115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
406 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ173-270115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
406 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming SW 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-270115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
406 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 12 
ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-270115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
406 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-270115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
406 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-270115-
Adak to Kiska-
406 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-270115-
Kiska to Attu-
406 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-270115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
406 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-270115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
406 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-270115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
406 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt in the morning becoming N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 
ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-270115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
406 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 25 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 20 kt becoming NE
after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 
ft. Freezing spray W of Saint Matthew Island. Snow with rain 
showers E of Saint Matthew Island.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
404 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The big weather system over the region today is a large low over
the Central Aleutians which is packing storm force winds on all
sides of it this afternoon. This low will weaken as it moves to
the southeast and then south of the Gulf of Alaska. The low is
still in the forward left exit region of the jet streak which is a
favorable position in the jet stream to keep it strong. This low
will ride that position the next few days but ultimately get
detached from its upper level support.

A longwave trough extending out of the Arctic near the Bering
Strait and then southeast to the northern Gulf of Alaska. A weak
surface low is under this trough south of Seward. Other than that,
there is just weak flow over most of Southcentral and Southwest
Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good synoptic agreement for the next few days and
don't really show some issues until the middle of the week with
a low in the northeastern Bering Sea at that time. Of course, the
fact that the location of this low will be in the northeastern
Bering Sea is an indications that the models should be able to
narrow in on a reasonable solution as the time draws closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
tonight through Wednesday)...

Overall, the weather pattern over Southcentral is relatively
benign through mid-week. An area of low pressure persists near
Kodiak today, remaining relatively stationary before tracking
northwards towards Prince William Sound and dissipating by late
Monday afternoon. Associated precipitation will largely be spread
over the Gulf, however, light rain showers may extend into the
southeastern Kenai Peninsula as well as over Kodiak Island
through tonight. The broad longwave trough pattern moves over
Southcentral by Tuesday afternoon, with the negatively tilted
trough axis extending over the Kenai Peninsula and into the Gulf.
A few weak upper level shortwaves will pass over the Southcentral
Mainland but it is unlikely to produce much precipitation, if any
at all. Partly cloudy skies will continue for the rest of today,
tonight and tomorrow before cloud cover begins to increase.
Temperatures across Southcentral will range from mid-30's to low
40's, with the warmer temperatures along the coast, and will
slowly decrease over the next few days as a colder airmass moves
overhead with the trough. A low pressure system tracking south of
the Aleutian Chain will promote the development of some gusty
winds through the Barren Islands and Kamishak Bay by early Tuesday
morning as it moves south of the Gulf. These gusty winds will
extend into and across the Gulf by Tuesday afternoon as the low
pushes towards the Southeast Panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A benign weather pattern will continue for Southwest Alaska over
the next few days. Lingering snow showers will gradually taper off
from west to east this evening and tonight as transient upper
level ridging moves into the area. This transient upper level
ridging will allow for less cloud cover tonight and on Monday.
Clouds will gradually increase on Tuesday as a weak upper level
wave moves through the area ahead of the next trough. Snow showers
then become more likely on Wednesday as the next upper trough
moves into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A storm system over the western Aleutians will continue to move
southeastward and out of the region this evening and tonight.
Winds are expected to gradually ease in these areas over the next
several hours. Transient high pressure ridging moves in across the
western Bering/Aleutians behind the aforementioned storm system on
Monday. The center of this high will drift southeastward into the
North Pacific by Tuesday afternoon. Brisk westerly flow will then
move across the Bering/Aleutians due to stronger pressure
gradients between the high to the south and the next weak low
moving along the northern Bering Sea on Tuesday. Winds will then
veer northwesterly on Wednesday and allow for ample cloud cover
and convective shower activity due to steep lapse rates from the
cold air advection over the warmer surface of the water.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

Confidence is high with a benign pattern setting up for the Gulf
of Alaska waters through Friday. Weak low pressure will develop
near Prince William Sound Wednesday night before moving over
Canada. Thursday night and into Friday, low pressure will track
near Kodiak. An attendant front will move north, potentially
creating a gale force barrier jet Friday evening.

A Siberian Low will move into the northern Bering Wednesday. This
low will deepen as it moves towards Bristol Bay Thursday,
providing low end gales, with higher end gales possible. Low
pressure developing off of the coast of Japan early this week will
move north towards the Aleutian water. Confidence remains low on
the forecast track. Presently it remains south of forecast
marine area.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Low pressure that is developing near Japan will be the primary
weather maker into the long term forecast. The forecast challenges
for the Aleutians will be how far north this low moves. American
guidance lifts it clear across Adak, while European guidance keeps
it a few hundred nautical miles south. By the weekend, the
picture does get a little clearer as a front will lift north
across the Gulf of Alaska and impact the coast of south central
and Kodiak. For coastal areas facing the Gulf and inland areas
near Cook Inlet, freezing levels are progged to be in the 2.5 to 3
kft range, keeping cold rain in the forecast from Homer through
Palmer. Meanwhile the Chugach and parts of the Alaska, Talkeetna
and Wrangell Ranges will see snow above. Temperatures are not
expected to deviate much from normal for this time of year.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 155 170-177 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ED
MARINE/LONG TERM...SS