Small Craft Advisory 838, NWS Anchorage, AK

616 
FZAK51 PAFC 222341
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
341 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-231245-
341 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 964 mb low 135 nm East of Sand Point moves to 285 nm South of 
Middleton Island at 966 mb by Sat morning. A 971 mb North Pacific 
low loops to merge with the first low to form a 970mb low 185 nm 
South of Kodiak City for Sat afternoon before drifting with its 
front into the North Pacific through Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-231245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
341 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 13 ft 
building to 18 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 25 
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-231245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
341 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-231245-
Resurrection Bay-
341 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 
ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-231245-
Prince William Sound-
341 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt early increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft 
building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E wind 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-231245-
Port Valdez-
341 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-231245-
Valdez Narrows-
341 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-231245-
Valdez Arm-
341 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-231245-
Passage Canal-
341 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after 
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-231245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
341 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ131-231245-
Barren Islands East-
341 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-231245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
341 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-231245-
Chiniak Bay-
341 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. 
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-231245-
Marmot Bay-
341 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-231245-
Shelikof Strait-
341 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-231245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
341 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-231245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
341 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-231245-
Kachemak Bay-
341 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

853 
FZAK51 PAFC 231110
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
310 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-240015-
310 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 967 mb low 185 nm SE of Kodiak City merges with a 966 mb low 225
nm W of Sitka and moves into the N Pacific Sun morning. A N 
Pacific low moves to 190 nm SE of Kodiak City at 983 mb Mon 
morning.

$$

PKZ119-240015-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
310 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 23
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-240015-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
310 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft increasing 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-240015-
Resurrection Bay-
310 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-240015-
Prince William Sound-
310 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-240015-
Port Valdez-
310 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-240015-
Valdez Narrows-
310 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-240015-
Valdez Arm-
310 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-240015-
Passage Canal-
310 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-240015-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
310 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ131-240015-
Barren Islands East-
310 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-240015-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
310 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt except N 35 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. N of
Dangerous Cape, N wind 40 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-240015-
Chiniak Bay-
310 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-240015-
Marmot Bay-
310 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ138-240015-
Shelikof Strait-
310 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-240015-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
310 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-240015-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
310 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-240015-
Kachemak Bay-
310 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

785 
FZAK51 PAFC 232348
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
348 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-241230-
348 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 971 mb low 120 nm E of Kodiak City moves to 210 nm SE of Sitkinak 
at 984 mb Sun morning and exits into the North Pacific. A new North 
Pacific low develops Sun afternoon and moves to 180 nm E of Kodiak 
City at 981 mb Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-241230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
348 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 16
ft subsiding to 11 ft after midnight.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-241230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
348 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 18
ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-241230-
Resurrection Bay-
348 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-241230-
Prince William Sound-
348 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-241230-
Port Valdez-
348 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-241230-
Valdez Narrows-
348 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-241230-
Valdez Arm-
348 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-241230-
Passage Canal-
348 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-241230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
348 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.SUN THROUGH SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-241230-
Barren Islands East-
348 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas 18
ft subsiding to 13 ft after midnight.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-241230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
348 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, NE wind 35 kt
diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-241230-
Chiniak Bay-
348 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-241230-
Marmot Bay-
348 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-241230-
Shelikof Strait-
348 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-241230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
348 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-241230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
348 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-241230-
Kachemak Bay-
348 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

529 
FZAK51 PAFC 241153
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 AM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-250100-
353 AM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST + KODIAK ISLAND WATERS + COOK 
INLET...

A 983 mb low 175 nm SE of Akhiok moves into the North Pacific 
this morning. A 987 mb low develops 150 nm E of Kodiak City this 
evening, drifts to 125 nm E of Kodiak City late tonight, then 
dissipates in place Mon evening. A North Pacific low will track 
south of the Gulf through late Mon night.


$$

PKZ119-250100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
353 AM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-250100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
353 AM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-250100-
Resurrection Bay-
353 AM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-250100-
Prince William Sound-
353 AM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-250100-
Port Valdez-
353 AM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-250100-
Valdez Narrows-
353 AM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-250100-
Valdez Arm-
353 AM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-250100-
Passage Canal-
353 AM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-250100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
353 AM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-250100-
Barren Islands East-
353 AM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-250100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
353 AM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-250100-
Chiniak Bay-
353 AM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-250100-
Marmot Bay-
353 AM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-250100-
Shelikof Strait-
353 AM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-250100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
353 AM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-250100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
353 AM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-250100-
Kachemak Bay-
353 AM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
626 PM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

There are two upper level lows that are driving the weather
across the southern half of the state today. One is in place over
the Bering and the other is centered over the southeastern Gulf. A
170 knot jet streak at 300 mb is in place just south of the
Aleutian Chain and is steering the Bering low eastward. Satellite
imagery shows widespread cloud cover across the southern mainland,
with low level stratus in place over the Susitna Valley and
Southwest. Residual precipitation is clearing out of Southcentral
this afternoon, providing a brief break before the next low
arrives from the southeast. Out west, the big story today is the
hurricane force low (approx. 945 mb) centered just west of the
Pribilofs. Winds have picked up across the Bering this afternoon
in response to this low. The associated front and precipitation is
just beginning to arrive over the southwest coast and Alaska
Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions are in good synoptic agreement through the short
term. Models agree on the track of the Bering low moving over the
Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf by Friday night. Additionally,
models are consistent with the track of the southeastern Gulf low
lifting to the northwest toward the northern Gulf coast. Both the
NAM and GFS solutions phase these two upper level lows over the
northern Gulf by Saturday, creating one broad upper level low in
place over Southcentral. The tricky part of the forecast will be
the timing of the upper level shortwaves rotating around the main
low center. Currently, the 18Z NAM is the most aggressive with
multiple upper level shortwaves propagating much farther north
over the Copper River Basin on Saturday into Sunday than the GFS
solution currently depicts. This will bear watching to see how run
to run consistency pans out in future model runs. For now,
forecast confidence is average through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A few lingering stratus should clear up by this evening.
Expect improving weather this evening allowing for VFR conditions
through early Friday morning.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 3)...

A low pressure system in the eastern North Pacific is moving
northwestward. Clouds will increase Friday afternoon as this low
continues moving northwestward and reach the north central Gulf
of Alaska Friday night. This low will bring gale force easterly
winds across the northern Gulf Friday night through Saturday
afternoon. The low will then gradually weaken while broadening
later on Saturday, thus winds in the coastal waters along the
northern Gulf will ease to below gale force. The bulk of the
precipitation will remain along the windward side of the Chugach
Mountains as the current low track does not support the center of
the low moving inland. Therefore, the Anchorage Bowl will likely
remain dry with mostly cloudy skies for the majority of the
forecast period.

The overall synoptic pattern in conjunction with the pressure
gradient regime will result in northeasterly Matanuska Valley
winds during this forecast period. These Matanuska Valley winds
will begin this evening, then increase throughout the day on
Friday. These Matanuska Valley winds will then peak Friday evening
through Saturday morning when the strongest pressure gradients are
expected, then begin to gradually ease late Saturday morning
onward. Brisk northeasterly winds are expected in Cook Inlet and
will follow the same general pattern of the Matanuska Valley winds
with respect to the timeframe of strengthening and weakening.
These strong northeasterly winds in Cook Inlet may allow for some
localized short period chop and localized stacking of seas while
the tide flows into Cook Inlet (going from low to high tide).

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The longwave pattern is highly amplified and features a broad
trough from the NE Russia to the Gulf Of Alaska. There is a strong
low which is currently near St George Island of the Pribilofs
with an estimated intensity of 945 mb. Light precipitation from
this mature low was detected on the Bethel and King Salmon radars
near Nunivak, Kipnuk, Bristol Bay and Pilot Point. This low will
change direction tonight and begin to track southeastward. More
light precipitation is expected for the coastal regions of SW AK
but significant accumulations are not expected. For this forecast
period expect daytime temperatures in the mid to upper 30s and
overnight temperatures dipping into the low 20s for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The High Wind Warning for Dutch Harbor and Public Zone 185
remains in effect. On the METARs at PADU (Dutch Harbor) at 1855z
and 1955z "Black Water" was observed. North of Nikolski a gust of
109 mph or 94.7 kts was observed at 1:52 PM AKDT today.

The longwave pattern is highly amplified and features a broad
trough from the NE Russia to the Gulf Of Alaska. There is a jet
core of 170 knots south of Adak. There is a strong low  which is
currently near St George Island of the Pribilofs with an estimated
intensity of 945 mb. On satellite imagery (CIMSS Layer PW) this
mature low has a fetch of modified tropical air entrained into
it which extends north of Dutch Harbor. This low will change
direction tonight and begin to track southeastward. It also may
deepen a couple of millibars. This system will sustain widespread
storm force winds and an area of hurricane force winds. Seas could
rapidly build to 35-50 ft where the strongest winds materialize.
Expect the strongest winds and highest seas will continue into
Friday morning. Friday afternoon, the models (GFS/NAM/ECMWF and
Canadian) have the surface low moving south of the Alaska
Peninsula near the Shumagin Islands. By 12z Saturday, this low
will enter the Gulf Of Alaska and widespread northerly flow will
reign across much of the Bering. Late Saturday and early Sunday
the next cyclone will near the Western Aleutians.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Sunday through Tuesday)...

Bering Sea - Forecast confidence starts fair, but decreases
through Tuesday. Lingering gusty winds over the Eastern Bering and
Bristol Bay on the rear flank of a Gulf Low diminishes Monday. A
well developed low South of the Aleutians moves into the North
Pacific for Late Sunday. Gale force winds over the Western and
Central Aleutians moves into the Pacific on Sunday. Seas to 25
feet over the Aleutians Sunday and Monday, subsiding. A couple of
troughs moves across the Bering through Tuesday, bringing gusty
winds to the Northern Bering for Monday and Tuesday, and the
Western Bering for Tuesday.

Gulf of Alaska - Forecast confidence starts fair, but decreases
through Tuesday. A weakening low east of Kodiak Island remains
nearly stationary through Tuesday. Gale force gap winds extend
into the Western Gulf, diminishing Sunday, but re-intensify Monday
and Tuesday. Gale force gap winds spread over the Barren Islands
late Monday into Tuesday. as the low drifts into the North Pacific
for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through
Thursday)...

Two key surface lows to focus on in the beginning of the long
term. The first will be situated just south of the western
Aleutians Sunday morning before it dives southeast across the Gulf
and heads towards the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday. The other low
will be situated over the Gulf Monday and make its way southeast
towards the Pac Northwest ahead of the aforementioned low. Behind
these two lows, an upper level trough will take hold with a series
of weak shortwaves pulsing through it. This will allow for a cold
northwest flow to usher in a much colder airmass into the Bering
Sea by Tuesday, and then further southeast into AKPen, Kodiak,
Kenai, and southcentral Alaska by Thursday with -12C temperatures
at 850 mb being noted across all model guidance. Meanwhile, weak
ridge will sit idle over western Canada, keeping low pressure over
the northern Gulf coast. As a result, widespread precipitation is
likely across the Gulf and northern Gulf coast through the
period.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 185.
MARINE...Hurricane 413 414 155 170 171 172. Storm 412 173 174 175
176 177 179 180. Gale 411 150 160 165 181 185 119.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ED
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/AB