Small Craft Advisory 797, NWS Anchorage, AK

294 
FZAK52 PAFC 081200
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-090115-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 976 mb low over Etolin Strait this morning moves inland this 
afternoon. A second 995 mb low 90 nm southeast of Shemya Saturday 
morning moves 90 nm northwest of Saint Paul at 989 mb Sunday 
morning.

$$

PKZ150-090115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 
22 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-090115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kts. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ160-090115-
Bristol Bay-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ165-090115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-090115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 ft
subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-090115-
Unalaska Bay-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt decreasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-090115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ173-090115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ174-090115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ175-090115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ176-090115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft
building to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ177-090115-
Adak to Kiska-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ178-090115-
Kiska to Attu-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ179-090115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-090115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-090115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-090115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
400 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
551 AM AKDT Thu Oct 7 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The jetstream currently remains south of 50N through 175W, then
extends northeastward to over Bristol Bay and then extends
southeastward into the eastern North Pacific. A developing area of
low pressure is moving northeastward across the western
Bering/Aleutians. The center of cyclonic circulation is near the
core of the left-exit region in the jetstream which is a good
indicator this low is strengthening. Moreover, the upper trough
associated with this low has a negative tilt which supports rapid
cyclogenesis. A second upper trough over the eastern Gulf of
Alaska continues to move eastward.

Closer to the surface, radar imagery shows showers slowly drifting
southeastward across the Northern Gulf. Radar also shows showers
moving eastward across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Guidance is in good agreement with the placement and intensity of
synoptic scale features at the surface and in the upper levels.
Forecast confidence remains above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through this TAF period, though
temporary MVFR conditions are possible before 14z this morning as
areas of low clouds (~2500ft) will move through the area. Low
level wind shear is likely after 08th/10z due to light winds near
the surface with 25kt southeasterly winds at 1500ft above the
surface.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Saturday morning)...

A negatively tilted upper-level trough over Southcentral this
morning will lift through the Copper River Basin and into the
Yukon Territory today. As it does, an associated surface front and
low near Middleton Island will both exit the region to the east.
Before that, though, areas from Kenai to Broad Pass and Prince
William Sound will have to contend with lingering low stratus and
light rain through around noon today. An upper-level ridge
over the eastern Bering will build in from the west this afternoon,
allowing for winds to diminish and skies to gradually clear.

Unfortunately, the ridge is transient and will continue to push
east Thursday night as a strong area of low pressure moves
through the Bering. This feature will extend a front across the
AKPen, with rain and gusty southeasterly winds advancing toward
Kodiak Island late Thursday and across the Barren Islands and
Kenai Peninsula by Friday morning. The southeasterly flow ahead of
the front will usher in plenty of moisture and slightly warmer
air. Thus, rain will be the primary precipitation type. However,
snow is expected at higher elevation and across Broad Pass and
along the Richardson Hwy near Paxson, where a couple of inches
could fall. Southeasterly gap winds will also be on the increase
through Friday. As a triple point low spins up south of Seward,
the Turnagain Arm wind is expected to bend down Cook Inlet and
remain away from the lower elevations of Anchorage. In addition,
the southeasterly cross-barrier flow across the Kenai Mountains
will also increase. The result will be lower precipitation amounts
in the lee of the mountains with this system.

Precipitation will again spread across Cook Inlet and the
Anchorage Bowl by late Friday as the surface low weakens and the
upper-level trough moves over the Kenai Peninsula. Models diverge
on where the weakening low meanders through Saturday, keeping the
precipitation forecast challenging for the western half of
Southcentral. However, it does look like the low will be somewhere
in Prince William Sound with rain and higher elevation snow
continuing along the coast through late Saturday as the trough
moves east.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 to 2: Today through
Friday)...

A weak upper level ridge over the eastern Bering is gradually
moving inland over Southwest. This ridge has trapped low level
stratus across most of the Kuskokwim Delta this morning. Lingering
snow showers across the foothills of the Alaska Range will
continue before diminishing this afternoon.

Attention quickly shifts to a strengthening Bering low moving
toward Southwest. The leading frontal boundary will arrive this
afternoon, bringing gusty southerly winds and rain. As the low
center moves inland over the southern Kuskokwim Delta Coast
overnight, gusty westerly winds on the backside of the low will
ramp up across the eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula. The High
Wind Watch for the Alaska Peninsula has been upgraded to a High
Wind Warning. Additionally, given a persistent westerly fetch with
this low, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the
Bristol Bay coast beginning Friday afternoon. By late Friday, the
low will have weakened and moved farther east, however rain and
gusty onshore winds are expected to persist across Southwest and
the Alaska Peninsula through early Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 to 2: Today
through Friday)...

A strengthening low has moved into the southwestern Bering this
morning and will traverse eastward over the next 48 hours,
producing Storm force winds and heavy rain. The biggest change in
this forecast package is an adjustment to reflect the low taking
a more northerly track. By this evening, the low center will lift
just north of the Pribilof Islands, bringing gusty westerly winds
to the central Bering. A High Wind Warning remains in effect for
the eastern Aleutians, where gusty westerly winds are expected to
peak during the overnight hours tonight. By Friday morning, the
low will have reached the Southwest coast, and winds across the
Bering will gradually diminish through the day Friday. An upper
level trough will approach the western Aleutians Friday night,
bringing another round of gusty southerly winds and rain.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

A low over Dillingham tracks across the North Gulf Coast and
dissipates Sunday morning. Northwesterly high-end gale force winds
across the southeastern Bering/Aleutians, diminishing Sunday
morning. Northwesterly high-end gale force gap winds begin through
the Barren Islands and Sitkinak areas Saturday morning,
diminishing Sunday. Seas to 19 feet in the southeastern Bering and
22 feet southeast of Kodiak Island, subsiding Sunday.

A well-developed North Pacific low approaches the western
Aleutians Saturday morning, increasing to high-end gale force gap
winds into the central Aleutians and southern Bering through
Sunday, diminishing Monday morning. Seas building to 18 feet over
the western Aleutians Sunday, subsiding Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Model spread has grown slightly from yesterday, but solutions are
still pointing at a Gulf low approaching the North Gulf Coast, as
well as two separate low developing in the Bering through early
next week. The first low weakens through the weekend as it
approaches the Southeast Coast. Strong winds and areas of moderate
precipitation will likely linger along the southern edge of the
system, mostly affecting the Southern Gulf and Kodiak Island
through Sunday night. A second low enters the southern Bering by
Sunday morning and tracks northeastward towards the Southwest
Coast. This system elongates by Monday and model guidance
continues to point to the development of a triple point low near
Kodiak Island by Monday-Tuesday. Latest consensus shows the triple
point low as being less aggressive than previous runs indicated,
however, it could still produce gusty winds and areas of heavy
precipitation. Gusty northerly winds are also likely through the
gaps and passes of the Eastern Aleutians/Southern AKPen on the
south side of the parent low as the pressure gradient tightens
with the development of a ridge behind it. The third system
approaches the Western Aleutians by Monday afternoon. This system
occludes as it crosses into the western Bering, thus weakening as
it travels eastward. However, areas of gusty winds and moderate-
to-heavy precipitation are probable along the Western and Central
Aleutians through Tuesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 181 185.
MARINE...Storm Warning 165 170 171 173 175 176 177 413 414.
Gale Warning 119 130 132 138 150 155 160 172 174 178 179 180 181 351 352 411
412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/KM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
246 PM AKDT Thu Oct 7 2021

AKZ121-080300-
Western Kenai Peninsula-
Including the cities of Kenai, Soldotna, Homer,
and Cooper Landing
246 PM AKDT Thu Oct 7 2021

The Kenai River at the outlet of Skilak Lake has crested. Water
was high from the recent glacier dammed lake release, but it
crested below bankfull levels.

This high water will be routing through the Kenai for the next
few days but no flooding is expected.