Small Craft Advisory 788, NWS Anchorage, AK

716 
FZAK52 PAFC 051212
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
412 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-060045-
412 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 984 mb low 430 nm northwest of Saint Paul this morning will 
move to over the Seward Peninsula at 991 mb Thursday morning. A 
front moves across the Bering/Aleutians this morning through 
Wednesday afternoon. A second 992 mb low 205 nm southeast of 
Shemya Wednesday night moves 430 nm northeast of Shemya at 983 mb 
Thursday morning.

$$

PKZ150-060045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
412 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ155-060045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
412 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-060045-
Bristol Bay-
412 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 12 ft in the
afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ165-060045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
412 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ170-060045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
412 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ171-060045-
Unalaska Bay-
412 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-060045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
412 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-060045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
412 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-060045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
412 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-060045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
412 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-060045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
412 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-060045-
Adak to Kiska-
412 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-060045-
Kiska to Attu-
412 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-060045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
412 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 45 kt after midnight. Seas 13
ft building to 19 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-060045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
412 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ181-060045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
412 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-060045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
412 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

238 
FZAK52 PAFC 052312
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-061215-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 979 mb low 310 nm west of Hooper Bay Tue afternoon moves over 
the Seward Peninsula at 980 mb Wed afternoon and dissipates Thu. 
Its front moves across the Bering/Aleutians and the Alaska 
Peninsula Wed and extends into the Gulf Thu. A 997 mb low 335 nm 
south of Shemya Wed afternoon strengthens to 982 mb 85 nm west of 
the Pribilof Islands for Thu afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-061215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-061215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-061215-
Bristol Bay-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt becoming W 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft 
building to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-061215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-061215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-061215-
Unalaska Bay-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 
ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-061215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-061215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ174-061215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-061215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-061215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-061215-
Adak to Kiska-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 14
ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 50 kt after midnight. Bering 
side, seas 7 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Pac side, seas 10 
ft building to 19 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-061215-
Kiska to Attu-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NW 35 kt after midnight. From 
Shemya W, W wind 15 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ179-061215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 45 kt after midnight. Seas 13
ft building to 19 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-061215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-061215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-061215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 30 kt diminishing
to 20 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 20 kt. 
Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
547 AM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The first in a series of fronts is moving into Southwest Alaska
this morning. Thus far precipitation associated with the front has
largely evaporated before it reaches the ground with dry air in
place over all of southern mainland Alaska. A bit of residual
stratus from the last precipitation event persists over the
northern Susitna Valley and much of the Copper River Basin. Skies
are clear over the rest of Southcentral.

The front moving into Southwest Alaska is spreading clouds over
all of that region, with southwesterly flow behind the front
expected to keep all of Southwest Alaska and the Bering socked in
overcast skies for the next several days. The remnants of Typhoon
Mindulle are near the coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula, which is
directing plentiful Pacific moisture towards the mainland.

Ridging with embedded shortwaves are moving across the Bering on a
120 kt jet west-east oriented jet streak that turns southward upon
reaching the Gulf. The remnant upper level low is over the eastern
Gulf.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

There is some disagreement in the models this morning, mainly on
the timing of a stronger front crossing the Bering and reaching
the coast of the Kuskokwim Delta late Tuesday night. These
differences in frontal timing are stemming from model differences
on where the center of the low of former typhoon Mindulle track.
This is a common problem with models handling extratropical
remnants of former typhoons. A forecast challenge for this package
involves how quickly the cold air is scoured out over the interior
of Southwest Alaska Monday night. This will have a big impact on
precipitation type as temperatures will be right near freezing,
resulting in 2 degrees being the difference between a cold rain
and a wet snow. Regardless, most populated low elevation areas
should stay above freezing for almost the entire event so impacts
should be minimal regardless. Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today
and Wednesday)...

Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and drier conditions will
prevail once again today as a ridge of high pressure builds over
the mainland. As the ridge remains anchored, daytime temperatures
for today will be in the mid to upper 40s and overnight lows in
the 20s in the interior valleys and 30s along the coast. As the
ridge moves east, a broad longwave trough over the Bering Sea will
shift it axis over the eastern half of the interior state and
bring unsettled weather over the forecast area. Moist,
southwesterly flow aloft will develop with a weak frontal boundary
crossing the Alaska Range and bring increasing cloudiness and the
first round of precipitation for late Monday night and into
Tuesday morning. The second round of precipitation will be
associated with a vigorous shortwave and surface front taking the
same track beginning Tuesday evening through Wednesday. A
combination of cold air and persistent upslope flow will also
bring moderate to heavy snow in the Susitna Valley during that time
frame as well (please see the Winter Weather Advisory on our
webpage for more details). Elsewhere, precipitation will likely be
all rain in the coastal areas, snow/rain mix before changing to
all rain in the interior valleys, and snow in the higher
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 to 3: Today through
Wednesday night)...

A ridge axis over the eastern Bering will move inland overnight
with cool northerly winds hanging on for one more evening before a
significant pattern change arises early in the week. A quickly
degrading front will push into the Y-K Delta through early
tomorrow morning, bringing across a short period of light snow.
Snow will quickly transition to light rain in the afternoon as a
warming southerly flow commences ahead of a more defined front
associated with the extratropical remnant of Typhoon Mindulle.
The cold air in place will be more stubborn to mix out over the
interior, with mainly snow expected with the front as it moves
farther inland through early Tuesday morning. Around 1 inch of new
snow accumulation is anticipated over the Middle Kuskokwim Valley
before warm air begins to infiltrate into interior lowlands,
changing snow over to mainly rain by Tuesday afternoon.

Behind the main frontal boundary moving inland on Tuesday, a broad
expanse of southwest flow will continue through midweek as
multiple shortwave perturbations continue to cross the Bering and
into the Southwest. The most pronounced shortwave will move across
from west to east on Wednesday, spreading another round of more
intense precipitation inland. The persistent southwest stream of
warmth and moisture should prove enough to keep all of this
falling in the form of rain away from higher elevations between
Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Conditions will be
blustery near the coast as the wave moves across, with gusts over
40 mph possible early on Wednesday morning. Elevated water levels
with these onshore winds are not currently projected to be a
significant problem, but residents along the Southwest coast
should still continue to monitor for updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 to 3:
Today through Wednesday night)...

A ridge of high pressure will exit from the eastern Bering into
Southwest AK tomorrow morning as a front producing showers and up
to gale force winds shunts east across the Eastern
Aleutians/Bering and across the Pribilofs through tomorrow
afternoon. Gale force winds will continue at nearly steady-state
through Monday afternoon over the Western Bering and out near Attu
and Shemya in association with the center of extratropical
Mindulle drifting near Kamchatka. Southwest winds and a relatively
warm and showery regime will prevail for Tuesday and Wednesday as
a pair of shortwave troughs move across the Bering, with periods
of more steady, moderate rainfall possible over the Pribilofs
through Wednesday morning. The outer reaches of the next
potentially more significant low pressure system to impact the
region will approach form the North Pacific by Wednesday evening,
spreading ample amounts rainfall northeast across the Western
Aleutians.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

Bering Sea and Aleutians: A Gale force low will move north
into the Bering Strait on Wednesday with a wide swath of high end
small crafts around 30 knots, there could still be pockets of
Gales especially near the front in the eastern Bering and near the
low in the northern Bering. Seas will generally be 10 to 15 feet
in coastal waters and 10 to 20 feet in offshore areas. Another
Gale force low approaches Thursday and moves across the central
Aleutians and Bering through Friday. This low is expected to
strengthen as it moves towards the eastern Bering with storm force
winds possible. Expect waves 10 to 20 feet and possibly a bit
higher if storm force winds develop.

Gulf of Alaska: A front will move into the Gulf on Wednesday with
winds increasing to small crafts; a low may develop along the
front which will allow winds to increase to high end small crafts
and possibly low end Gales. This front moves east on Thursday as
a strong front enters the Gulf Friday with Gales likely especially
across the northern Gulf with the barrier jet and across the
Barren Islands to Kamishak Bay and near Kodiak Island and Shelikof
Strait. There is a chance that storm force winds may develop
especially near Kamishak Bay and the Barrier Jet, but confidence
is low at this point. Expect seas to build on Friday to at least
10 to 18 feet where Gales occur and possibly higher if seas
approach storm force.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Overall models are in good agreement with the synoptic pattern
through the long term with above average forecast confidence. The
progressive pattern will continue through the long term, however
the pattern will amplify a bit by Friday as a strong low and cold
frontal system moves into the Bering on Thursday as it deepens.
This will bring rain to the Aleutians, AKPEN and Southwest Alaska
and strong winds to the Aleutians and AKPEN and parts of Bristol
Bay.

While it is a bit early to tell, the track of the low could
potentially bring high surf or coastal flooding to part of the
Southwest coast (mainly Bristol Bay) at the end of the week. It is
not likely at this point, but it is possible, so this will be
something to watch as the week progresses.

This front will move into the Gulf and Southcentral with increasing
winds and rain and snow on Friday. It's still too early to tell
where the snow level will be but some lower elevations could get
snow. Additionally, a triple point low may develop along this
front affecting the overall strength of the winds and location of
precipitation north of the coastal mountains. Strong gap winds may
develop Friday into Saturday in the usual spots across Southcentral
and the Gulf. Saturday the frontal system will weaken and move
east. By Sunday a ridge of high pressure moves across the southern
mainland and Gulf of Alaska with cooler and quieter weather.
Another low and front is expected to move into the Bering on
Sunday with increasing winds and rain for the Aleutians and
Bering.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 145.
MARINE...Gales 177, 178, 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BL
MARINE/LONG TERM...RC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
258 PM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

AKZ121-060500-
Western Kenai Peninsula-
Including the cities of Kenai, Soldotna, Homer,
and Cooper Landing
258 PM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

SKILAK GLACIER DAMMED LAKE IS RELEASING... NO FLOODING EXPECTED

Skilak Glacier Dammed Lake is releasing. The release is causing a
slow rise in water levels on Skilak Lake and the middle Kenai
River. The most current predictions have the river cresting below
bankfull levels at the outlet of Skilak Lake/Kenai Keys on October
6th or 7th.

Residents and river users between Skilak Lake and Sterling should
be prepared for unseasonably high water but flooding is unlikely.

As with any glacial system, there is uncertainty. Check back to
weather.gov/Anchorage for updates on crest stage and timing.

River gage and forecast at Skilak Lake Outlet:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=pafc&gage=skla2

River gage and forecast at Kenai Keys:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=pafc&gage=keya2

River gage and forecast at Soldotna:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=pafc&gage=sxra2