Small Craft Advisory 700, NWS Anchorage, AK

074 
FZAK51 PAFC 081149
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
349 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-090100-
349 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A low moves 150 nm south of Sitkinak Wednesday night at 981 mb. 
The low then moves 180 nm south of Middleton Island at 984 mb 
Thursday night.

$$

PKZ119-090100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
349 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-090100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
349 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ121-090100-
Resurrection Bay-
349 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-090100-
Prince William Sound-
349 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-090100-
Port Valdez-
349 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-090100-
Valdez Narrows-
349 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming SW wind 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-090100-
Valdez Arm-
349 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-090100-
Passage Canal-
349 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-090100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
349 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 11 ft after
midnight.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-090100-
Barren Islands East-
349 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 16 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ132-090100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
349 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ136-090100-
Chiniak Bay-
349 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ137-090100-
Marmot Bay-
349 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-090100-
Shelikof Strait-
349 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 35 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft building to 14 ft after midnight.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-090100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
349 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-090100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
349 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-090100-
Kachemak Bay-
349 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 AM AKDT Tue Sep 7 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad upper level trough is in place over the northern Bering
while a weak upper level ridge is attempting to build over the
northern Gulf. An upper level jet around 140 knots is in place
over the western Aleutian Chain and is gradually becoming more
amplified. Widespread clouds and stratus remain over the Bering
and light rain showers are spreading inland over the Kuskokwim
Delta this morning. Meanwhile over the Gulf, lingering low level
stratus and fog continue to be a forecast challenge along the
northern Gulf coast. High level clouds are spreading across
Southcentral this morning from west to east as several upper level
shortwaves begin to propagate eastward.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good synoptic agreement through the short term.
By Wednesday night, some differences arise in the track and
strength of a low developing south of the Alaska Peninsula. As the
low tracks eastward into the Gulf for Thursday, model solutions
vary slightly on the track and strength of this low. At this time,
the GFS is the slowest solution, keeping the low farther west than
the NAM/EC solution. Overall, forecast confidence is increasing,
but remains below average for this next storm system late
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC... VFR ceilings and light winds are expected to persist.
Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds have weakened, though an
occasional southeasterly gust over the terminal is possible
this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today and
Wednesday)...

Today looks to be a quiet day across much of Southcentral, as an
upper level ridge over the eastern half of the area moves towards
the Panhandle. The ridging is slowly being replaced by a trough,
which as the trough moves in will result in increasing clouds and
rain. Despite that, the ridging will stay in place enough today to
keep the entire area dry.

Tonight, rain will move in around the Kodiak Island area. A
negatively tilted trough responsible for that will weaken as it
moves northward. Thus, it will take until late Wednesday morning
or Wednesday afternoon for the rain to begin across much of the
Kenai Peninsula. For Anchorage, the rain will hold off until late
Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday evening. On Wednesday night,
easterly flow will increase ahead of a strong low approaching the
Gulf. This will end the rain in the usual downslope areas in the
lee of the Kenai and Chugach mountains, like Anchorage.

The gap winds, like the Turnagain and Knik River Valley winds,
will increase late Wednesday night into Thursday as the easterly
cross-barrier flow. The low will cause the prevailing wind down
Cook Inlet to be northerly, which in turn will keep the Turnagain
Wind out of Anchorage. Looking ahead, the low is likely to
produce storm force winds along the north Gulf Coast and over the
Barren Islands Thursday afternoon and overnight. Marine interests
along the Gulf should expect hazardous winds and waves all across
the Gulf on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A shortwave trough will move through Southwest Alaska today
bringing southwesterly winds and rain. Rain will spread from the
Kuskokwim Delta and north and east towards Bristol Bay by
afternoon. Tonight the rain will decrease in coverage but there
are still chances of rain for most areas through Wednesday as
another shortwave moves across the area. By late Wednesday into
Thursday morning a deepening low south of the AKPEN will bring
east to southeast winds across the area and increasing chances of
rain for the Bristol Bay region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Fairly quiet weather today across the Bering and Aleutians as
southwesterly flow dominates most the region and winds 25 knots or
less. A low south of the Aleutians today will remain far enough
south today with no significant impacts expected. A potent
shortwave trough will dive southeast out of the Kamchatka area
today and interact with the jet stream south of the Aleutians.
This shortwave will have a surface low which will combine with the
low previously discussed and cause cyclogenesis to occur as
cooler air interacts with the trough. By Wednesday the low
pressure will be south of the eastern Aleutians and will produce
Gale force winds for the eastern Aleutians and south of the AKPEN.
There may be pockets of near storm force winds south of eastern
Aleutians as the low deepens late Wednesday. The low will continue
to deepen through Thursday morning and track south of the AKPEN.
This low will also bring periods of moderate to heavy rain to the
eastern Aleutians and AKPEN Wednesday and Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Thursday through Saturday)...

A developing low will cut south of the Alaska Peninsula early
Thursday and then progress into the Gulf. Expect gale force winds
with this system, with storm force gusts possible. Seas could
reach as high as 15-20 ft. This system will traverse from the
central Gulf towards Yakutat on Friday. Another system will follow
a very similar track on Saturday, however, forecast confidence in
the strength of this system is lower. At this point, we expect
small craft winds with the possibility of gales.

Across the Bering, expect quiet conditions with generally small
craft or less winds and seas generally 10' or less.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Friday through Monday)...

The long term starts out on Friday with an elongated, negatively
tilted upper-level trough extending from eastern Russia to the
central Gulf of Alaska. This trough as anchored by two upper-level
lows. The first looks to be centered near the Gulf of Anadyr with
the second over the Gulf. These features look to support gale-
force lows at the surface with a surface trough / front extending
across Southwest Alaska between the two. The result is a fall-like
pattern with rain stretching from the Southcentral coast across
eastern interior Southcentral and most of Southwest. Easterly
gales are also possible for the northern Gulf along with gap winds
across Southcentral. By Saturday, the Gulf low looks to exit the
region while the front extending from the low near Russia lifts
north over the interior. This solution would bring rain across all
of Southcentral by late Friday before tapering off Saturday.

Models then diverge with respect to the development of features
upstream of the aforementioned lows. Nevertheless, the pattern
appears to remain quite active with the overall longwave trough
axis centered over the Bering Sea. The bigger question will be how
the various shortwaves rotating around the trough interact with
the subtropical jet, and whether that leads to significant surface
low development. Right now, it does appear that at least one of
these waves will lead to the development of a surface low along
the Chain late Friday or early Saturday, moving quickly east to
the AKPen by late Saturday. This would bring more rain and gusty
conditions to much of the Southern Mainland beginning late
Saturday evening or early Sunday. Subsequent waves look to keep
conditions unsettled and fall-like through early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales: 150, 155, 172, 174.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JPW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/TM