Small Craft Advisory 695, NWS Anchorage, AK

648 
FZAK52 PAFC 052355
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
355 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-061245-
355 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Semisopochnoi Volcano 36 nm northeast of Amchitka is active.

A series of lows deepen across the Northern Bering through Tue 
afternoon. The associated front lays across the Northern Bering 
through Tue afternoon. A 1005 mb North Pacific low moves to 370 nm 
South of Attu at 1000 mb Mon morning continuing to 235 nm South of 
Dutch Harbor at 1004 mb by Tue afternoon. Its front remains south of 
the Aleutians through Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-061245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
355 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-061245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
355 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-061245-
Bristol Bay-
355 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-061245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
355 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-061245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
355 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind to 15 kt in the evening becoming SW wind 20 kt. 
Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-061245-
Unalaska Bay-
355 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-061245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
355 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-061245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
355 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-061245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
355 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-061245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
355 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-061245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
355 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-061245-
Adak to Kiska-
355 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-061245-
Kiska to Attu-
355 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-061245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
355 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-061245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
355 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-061245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
355 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-061245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
355 PM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

996 
FZAK52 PAFC 061209
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
409 AM AKDT Mon Sep 6 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-070100-
409 AM AKDT Mon Sep 6 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Semisopochnoi Volcano 36 nm northeast of Amchitka is active.

A broad region of low pressure with multiple centers will exist
over the northern Bering through Wed morning. A north Pacific low
reaches 200 nm S of Atka at 1003 mb Tue morning. The low then
moves to 120 nm S of Unalaska at 1000 mb Wed morning. A second
north Pacific low at 1002 mb 150 S of Unalaska begins to merge 
with the first late Wed morning. 

$$

PKZ150-070100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
409 AM AKDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-070100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
409 AM AKDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-070100-
Bristol Bay-
409 AM AKDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-070100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
409 AM AKDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-070100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
409 AM AKDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-070100-
Unalaska Bay-
409 AM AKDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-070100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
409 AM AKDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-070100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
409 AM AKDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-070100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
409 AM AKDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-070100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
409 AM AKDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after 
midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-070100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
409 AM AKDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-070100-
Adak to Kiska-
409 AM AKDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-070100-
Kiska to Attu-
409 AM AKDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-070100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
409 AM AKDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-070100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
409 AM AKDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-070100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
409 AM AKDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ185-070100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
409 AM AKDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
536 PM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A long-wave trough encompasses all of Alaska, with a zonal sub-
tropical jet positioned well to the south between 40N and 50N
latitude. A moist environment is in place over much of southern
Alaska as indicated by nearly saturated soundings from Anchorage,
Kodiak, and King Salmon this morning along with Total Precipitable
Water values of 0.75" to 1". Flow is weak and variable across the
region, with a plethora of weak waves drifting across the region.
This is leading to areas of light rain and fog, which is locally
dense.

Out west, a positively tilted short-ave trough extending from a
low over the Arctic is tracking south and east across the central
to eastern Bering Sea. A second short-wave is dropping southward
across the central Aleutians. Neither of these are very impressive,
with just some light rain or showers out ahead of them. High
pressure is building in behind these troughs across the western
Bering and Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models show a similar evolution of the large scale pattern through
Tuesday. There are some differences with track and depth of lows
on Tuesday, one in the eastern Gulf and one crossing the North
Pacific. However, these will be along the periphery of our
forecast area and no significant impacts are expected. The
primary forecast challenge in the short-term will be timing
and placement of precipitation and fog across southern Alaska
with such weak flow and forcing mechanisms.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...With such a moist environment in place and flow expected
to remain weak over the next day or longer, marginal ceilings will
likely prevail for much of the time. However, IFR, or even low
IFR ceilings/vis will be in the vicinity, so there is a chance for
lower conditions to move over the terminal. Forecast confidence
in specific conditions at specific times is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday)...

Much of the forecast area continues to be heavily influenced by a
broad longwave trough encompassing the eastern Bering Sea through
much of Mainland Alaska. Weak synoptic forcing associated with a
series of upper level waves embedded in the southerly flow aloft
is bringing light showers across the coastal areas and interior
valleys today. Additionally, a mesolow circulating south of
Montague Island provided widespread rain showers across coastal
areas of Prince William Sound and the eastern Kenai Peninsula.
Few changes are expected with the shower activity as the trough
pattern holds in place over the next couple of days. With a deep
saturated boundary layer and little breaks in the cloud cover,
areas of fog will also be concern later tonight into tomorrow
morning.

The negatively tilted trough axis will finally begin transiting
across Southcentral beginning tomorrow through early next week. As
this happens, a stronger shortwave coupled with moisture will
provide another round of precipitation with the organized band
moving across the Mat-Su Valleys into the Anchorage Bowl, and
then the Prince William Sound into the Copper River Basin.
Additionally, upper level support with cold air advection in the
wake of the trough passage will help develop westerly small craft
winds funneling through the Barren Islands Sunday and Sunday
night. By next Monday into Tuesday, a low- amplitude ridge of high
pressure will build across west to east and provide drier
conditions under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Tuesday)...

A cold front has moved into the Kilbuck Mountains and will move
into Bristol Bay through tomorrow. This front will bring areas of
light rain mainly from the Kilbuck Mountains to Bristol Bay.
Expect lows Sunday morning in the upper 30s to low 40s in many
areas. By Sunday the rain will begin to taper off as the front
moves east of the area with a few lingering showers through the
afternoon and evening across the Bristol Bay area. On Sunday
another shortwave will push another front into the Kuskokwim
Delta keeping the area cool with chances of light rain. This front
will move east and weaken by Monday morning. By Monday winds will
switch to southwesterly and warm the area up to near normal with
a few showers as onshore flow dominates the area. Tuesday another
front will approach the area and bring light rain to much of the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

A shortwave will dive south across the eastern Bering, the eastern
Aleutians and the AKPEN through tomorrow. This will enhance rain
across the area with gusty winds up to 35 mph across the gaps
south of the AKPEN through tomorrow as cooler air enhances the
winds. Behind the front a broad ridge will move across the Bering
and Aleutians producing areas of fog and low stratus clouds.
On Monday another front will develop and move across the northern
Bering producing areas of small craft winds. Meanwhile yet
another front moves across the western and central Aleutians
producing rain. Tuesday these two fronts will combine and produce
rain and areas of small craft winds across the northern and
eastern Bering.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Tuesday through Thursday)...

A series of lows with gusty winds track across the northern
Bering through Thursday. Areas of gale force winds expected around
St Matthew Island for Wednesday. Forecast confidence is good. A
pair of North Pacific lows merge as they edge closer and deepen
near the Western Gulf by Thursday. Gusty winds increase from the
Aleutians to the Gulf with gale force winds south of the
Aleutians and Gulf Wednesday into Thursday. Seas to 15 feet are
expected over the central Gulf for Wednesday, subsiding. Seas
will be building to 10 feet south of the Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula on Thursday. Seas less than 10 feet are expected over
the Bering through Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Wednesday through Saturday)...

The weather looks more active over the extended forecast period,
with stronger more amplified upper level flow. A strong digging
short-wave along the Aleutians will interact with the subtropical
jet and energy crossing the North Pacific Tuesday through
Wednesday, leading to an intensifying surface low south of the
Alaska Peninsula. While models differ on the exact track and depth
of this storm system, it does look like it will track into the
Gulf of Alaska Thursday, likely producing at least gale force
winds and heavy rain across the Gulf waters, Kodiak Island, and
the Gulf coast. It's more difficult to say whether impacts from
the storm will extend northward into Southcentral.

Meanwhile, a low complex will be centered over eastern Russia and
the northern Bering Sea mid week. A polar jet will help drive
short-waves out across the Bering Sea, ultimately dragging the
entire low complex southward. Model solutions diverge on handling
of specific short-waves and associated surface cyclogenesis, but
can say with some confidence that the pattern favors an increasing
chance of the presence of a surface low over the central to
northern Bering Sea with associated strengthening winds and
precipitation. As we head through the end of the week and into
the weekend, expect some of the energy rounding the upper low
complex to make it to southern Alaska, with multiple rounds of
rain likely.

The spacing between the northern stream polar jet and southern
stream subtropical jet will determine whether they interact. At
this point, it appears like they will initially remain far apart.
However, by Saturday the Bering trough may be far enough south to
interact with energy crossing the North Pacific, with potential
for a stronger storm system to form and affect the Gulf and
Southcentral over the weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/SEB