Small Craft Advisory 685, NWS Anchorage, AK

536 
FZAK51 PAFC 010013
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
413 PM AKDT Tue Aug 31 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-010115-
413 PM AKDT Tue Aug 31 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 997 mb low 260 nm southwest of Kodiak City this afternoon will 
move across the Alaska Peninsula on Wednesday. A second 997 mb low
will develop 280 nm southeast of Kodiak City Wednesday afternoon 
and move 110 nm northeast of Kodiak City at 997 mb Thursday 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-010115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
413 PM AKDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-010115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
413 PM AKDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft after midnight.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-010115-
Resurrection Bay-
413 PM AKDT Tue Aug 31 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-010115-
Prince William Sound-
413 PM AKDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-010115-
Port Valdez-
413 PM AKDT Tue Aug 31 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-010115-
Valdez Narrows-
413 PM AKDT Tue Aug 31 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-010115-
Valdez Arm-
413 PM AKDT Tue Aug 31 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-010115-
Passage Canal-
413 PM AKDT Tue Aug 31 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-010115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
413 PM AKDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-010115-
Barren Islands East-
413 PM AKDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-010115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
413 PM AKDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas building to 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, E wind 25 kt
becoming S after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-010115-
Chiniak Bay-
413 PM AKDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 9 ft 
after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-010115-
Marmot Bay-
413 PM AKDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft building to 15 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-010115-
Shelikof Strait-
413 PM AKDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas building to 11 ft. 
Rain.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft
subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-010115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
413 PM AKDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-010115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
413 PM AKDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-010115-
Kachemak Bay-
413 PM AKDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
429 PM AKDT Mon Aug 30 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

High pressure continues to be the main weather influencer for our
forecast area. Today, the upper level ridge has moved east to be
directly located over Southcentral AK. A surface high sits
underneath it. This is making for mostly clear skies for
Southcentral AK, though a few high cirrus clouds are overriding
the ridge this afternoon. In Southwest, moisture from the Bering
is trapped underneath the high, making for cloudy conditions under
a stratus deck. It is having trouble burning off, except for
interior Southwest.

Out it the Bering, troughing has moved in and is now encompassing
the Western and Central Bering. The Eastern Bering is now a
transition zone between high pressure and low pressure. Plenty of
cloud cover and rain showers are associated with the low and the
transition zone in the Bering and the Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue to perform well with the exception of their
handling of the low slated to move up the Western Gulf. Run to run
consistency is poor as placement keeps changing. This goes for
consistency between models as well. This low is expected to be a
weather producer for Southcentral, so we will need to keep a close
eye on model performance. Confidence is low to moderate for this
specific low, otherwise confidence is moderate to high.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The ridge continues to dominate most of the region resulting in
widespread mild and pleasant weather conditions with afternoon
highs in the mid 60s for the Anchorage Bowl and the MatSu Valleys.
A change in pattern for Southcentral is on the horizon. The ridge
axis will move into the eastern Gulf late Wednesday/early Tuesday
morning. A developing North Pacific low (with jet support) will
move towards Western Gulf on Tuesday. The models continue to
struggle with this system. This low is being heavily scrutinized
as new model data becomes available. At this point, there is
confidence that gusty winds and wrap around moisture that will
impact Kodiak Island Tuesday. The fly in the ointment is that the
track of the surface low is not locked on beyond Tuesday. This
will impact the timing of the precipitation shield. By Wednesday
morning, the precipitation shield will be well into Cook Inlet and
spanning to Prince William Sound. Later Wednesday, expect
precipitation in the Anchorage area which will taper off Thursday.
However, Prince William Sound can anticipate a multiple day rain
event. Adding to the gloomy weather will be the formation of a
barrier jet which will impact numerous locations along the North
Gulf Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Thursday)...

Southwest Alaska will remain under the influence of a ridge for
one more day. The area of low stratus and fog that enveloped much
of Southwest last night is beginning to erode, especially along
the AKPen and Kuskokwim Valley. Clouds still linger across the
Bristol Bay region, however, where temperatures today have
struggled to climb out of the lower and mid 50s. These clouds will
continue to slowly erode as the trough axis shifts to the
northeast and a southerly wind flow develops in advance of a
surface front over eastern Bering.

This front will slow as it reaches the Southwest coast Tuesday
morning. Clouds and scattered showers will continue along the
coast through Wednesday morning as the front stalls and weakens.
An upper-level wave and associated surface low moving from the
North Pacific toward Kodiak Island late Tuesday into Wednesday
will bring an increase in southeasterly winds and light rain
across the AKPen, with rain lifting northwest along Bristol Bay.
Rain is expected to continue across the Bristol Bay region into
Thursday as a second surface low moves the upper-level low over
the western Gulf lifts north toward the AKPen.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Thursday)...

A broad long-wave trough will remain over the Bering through the
midweek. A series of associated surface lows centered over the
central and western Aleutians will move east through Tuesday. The
first will lift northeast toward the Pribilofs by late Tuesday
with a front moving to the eastern Bering. A second low will
weaken as it moves to the eastern Bering by Wednesday morning. By
Wednesday, the main surface low will be centered just west of the
Pribilofs with an occluded front stalled over the eastern Bering.
Expect clouds to linger across much of the region with the best
chance for rain along this front and and north of the low.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Thursday through Saturday)...

Bering/Aleutians...

Expect winds less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft for the
Day 3 through 5 period.

Gulf of Alaska...

Gale force winds are expected in the northern and western Gulf on
Thursday as low pressure moves across the area. Winds will then
ease late Thursday afternoon as the low weakens. Winds will then
remain below gale force on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The long term starts with longwave trough encompassing all of the
Bering and Southwest Alaska, with an upper level low moving up the
Western Gulf of Alaska, which is helping to bring this trough
east. Longwave ridging continues to hold on over interior Alaska,
including the Copper River Basin. This ridge slides east over the
next couple of days and by the weekend our entire forecast area
is under a trough. This is very similar to what models had in the
forecast yesterday, so we can be confident in this pattern change.
This means expect a transition to active weather, with cooler
daytime temperatures and cloudy conditions for many locations...as
well as areas of precipitation. The particulars of system
placement will come in the short term. The long range continues to
show troughing over all of Alaska into early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PJS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
MARINE/LONG TERM...ED/BB