Small Craft Advisory 662, NWS Anchorage, AK

552 
FZAK51 PAFC 222349
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
349 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-231245-
349 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front enters the western Gulf and moves into the north Gulf 
coast through Tue morning. A 1006 mb low forms along the front 
50 nm southeast of Kodiak City tonight and moves to 80 nm 
southeast of Seward at 1000 mb Tue morning.

$$

PKZ119-231245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
349 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S of Middleton Island, SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt
after midnight. N of Middleton Island, E wind 35 kt in the evening 
diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-231245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
349 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt in the evening increasing to 30 kt. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Near the coast, NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Near the coast, NE wind 30 kt. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-231245-
Resurrection Bay-
349 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-231245-
Prince William Sound-
349 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-231245-
Port Valdez-
349 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-231245-
Valdez Narrows-
349 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming NE 10 kt. 
Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-231245-
Valdez Arm-
349 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-231245-
Passage Canal-
349 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening increasing to 15 kt. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-231245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
349 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 feet subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-231245-
Barren Islands East-
349 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Near the Barren Islands, 
NE wind 25 kt in the evening increasing to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft 
in the evening building to 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Near the Barren Islands, 
NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Near the Barren Islands, 
NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-231245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
349 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N of Dangerous Cape, SE wind 15 kt becoming 
variable 10 kt after midnight. S of Dangerous Cape, 
S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt in the morning increasing to 25 kt. 
Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ136-231245-
Chiniak Bay-
349 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-231245-
Marmot Bay-
349 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-231245-
Shelikof Strait-
349 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-231245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
349 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-231245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
349 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas building to 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-231245-
Kachemak Bay-
349 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

146 
FZAK51 PAFC 231144
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-240100-
344 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front across the southern Gulf moves into the north Gulf coast 
through Tue afternoon and then dissipate Tue night. A 1004 mb low 
70 nm southeast of Kodiak City moves to 5 nm southeast of 
Montague Island at 1002 mb Tue afternoon and moves inland Tue 
night.

$$

PKZ119-240100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
344 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt, except E 35 kt near the coast. Seas 11
ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-240100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
344 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt, except 35 kt near the coast. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-240100-
Resurrection Bay-
344 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt early becoming N 10 kt. Seas 
2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-240100-
Prince William Sound-
344 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-240100-
Port Valdez-
344 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-240100-
Valdez Narrows-
344 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-240100-
Valdez Arm-
344 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-240100-
Passage Canal-
344 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-240100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
344 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-240100-
Barren Islands East-
344 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 
ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind up to 15 kt in the morning becoming NW. Seas 6 
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-240100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
344 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, variable wind 10 kt
becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ136-240100-
Chiniak Bay-
344 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-240100-
Marmot Bay-
344 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-240100-
Shelikof Strait-
344 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-240100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
344 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-240100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
344 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-240100-
Kachemak Bay-
344 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

303 
FZAK51 PAFC 232324
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
324 PM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-241215-
324 PM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1004 mb low 130 nm east of Kodiak moves to 30 nm southeast of 
Montague Island at 1001 mb Tue afternoon and then inland Tue 
night. The associated front across the southern Gulf moves into 
the North Gulf Coast through Tue afternoon and then dissipates Tue 
night.

$$

PKZ119-241215-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
324 PM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt except E 35 kt near the coast. Seas 9 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-241215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
324 PM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-241215-
Resurrection Bay-
324 PM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-241215-
Prince William Sound-
324 PM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-241215-
Port Valdez-
324 PM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-241215-
Valdez Narrows-
324 PM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-241215-
Valdez Arm-
324 PM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-241215-
Passage Canal-
324 PM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-241215-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
324 PM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-241215-
Barren Islands East-
324 PM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-241215-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
324 PM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-241215-
Chiniak Bay-
324 PM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ137-241215-
Marmot Bay-
324 PM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-241215-
Shelikof Strait-
324 PM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-241215-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
324 PM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-241215-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
324 PM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-241215-
Kachemak Bay-
324 PM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

031 
FZAK51 PAFC 241132
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-250015-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1004 mb low 105 nm southeast of Montague Island moves inland by 
Tuesday night. The associated front moves from the southern Gulf 
moves to the north Gulf coast then dissipates Tuesday night.

$$

PKZ119-250015-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Near the
coast, SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-250015-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-250015-
Resurrection Bay-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt early becoming N 15 kt. Seas 
3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-250015-
Prince William Sound-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-250015-
Port Valdez-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-250015-
Valdez Narrows-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-250015-
Valdez Arm-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-250015-
Passage Canal-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-250015-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable less than 10 kt in the evening becoming W 10 kt.
Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-250015-
Barren Islands East-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ132-250015-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, variable wind 10 kt. Seas
5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-250015-
Chiniak Bay-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-250015-
Marmot Bay-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-250015-
Shelikof Strait-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-250015-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-250015-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-250015-
Kachemak Bay-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 24 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 PM AKDT Sat Aug 21 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level ridge is over Kodiak and northward toward the
western Alaska Range this afternoon, bringing mostly sunny skies
to areas east of the ridge axis. Some cirrus clouds are
overrunning this ridge so not everywhere is completely sunny.

Satellite is showing plenty of cloud cover to the north of the
Alaska Range, but that large wall is blocking those low to mid
level clouds from moving into Southcentral today as they pack up
along the Range. The stratus near the Copper River persisted into
early afternoon, but appears on satellite to have all dissipated
by mid afternoon. Another interesting satellite feature is the
silt coming out of the Copper River Delta indicating the northeast
winds finally kicked in after being delayed longer than expected.

There are two upper level lows in the Bering Sea area with one
north of Attu and the other just a little southwest of Dutch
Harbor. At the surface the pattern is a little more complex with
a low over the far western Bering Sea and a series of weak lows
extending from the north-central Pacific across the eastern
Aleutians and into the Bering Sea. A weak front is also pushing
into coastal Bristol Bay bringing some areas of rain to that area
this afternoon.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good synoptic agreement the next few days and some
of the details in the Gulf of Alaska that were causing uncertainties
in the forecast look to be resolving. Specifically, the low that
will develop along the front near Kodiak Island Sunday night has
better agreement with it holding together and tracking toward
Prince William Sound Monday night. This will impact the forecast
as this track will cut off any downsloping faster in the leeward
sides of the coastal mountain ranges and also bring the moisture
farther north. For later in the week the models look to remain
basically on track with the solution they converged upon yesterday.
This helps to increase confidence in the longer term.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 to 3:
Tonight through Tuesday)...

A mostly clear and sunny afternoon is underway over much of
Southcentral, with northwest flow and subsidence under a shortwave
ridge expected to extend clear and dry conditions into tonight.
A relatively cool and quite dry airmass advecting in from the
interior coupled with nearly still winds will allow for temperatures
to again drop quickly overnight, with lows around or possibly
just below freezing remaining possible across much of the Copper
River Basin. Chilly low temperatures are also expected across the
Mat-Su Valleys, but scattered upper cloud cover should be enough
to restrict radiational cooling to keep lows warmer in the upper
30s to around 40.

The next storm system will begin to encroach from the west on
Sunday as the upper ridge advances east and as an occluding front
stemming from a low in the eastern Bering moves into the western
Gulf. Increasing cloud cover will spread northeast throughout the
day, with bands of rain following quickly behind from Kodiak
Island and up along the Kenai Peninsula, then eventually into the
Mat-Su Valleys by the evening hours tomorrow. Gap winds will pick
up from the usual locations along the Turnagain Arm, Knik Valley
and Copper River by Sunday night, likely continuing well into
Monday. At the same time, a triple point low will form along the
front over or just east of Kodiak Island, with support from a
negatively-tilted upper shortwave pivoting northeast into the Gulf
by Monday morning. A gale force barrier jet will develop north of
the low center along the coast south of the Kenai Peninsula,
including near the Barren Islands from Sunday night through Monday
morning.

As cross-barrier flow increases along the Kenai and Chugach
Mountains, downslope flow may begin to clear out precipitation not
long after its onset along parts of the western Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage and Matanuska Valley as soon as tomorrow night. However,
there remains a good deal of uncertainty in regards to both the
strength and timing of this southeast flow, along with the track
of the Gulf low as it moves generally northeast on Monday and
Tuesday. Even with the potential downslope drying, there will be
at least some potential for intermittent rainfall for the inland
valleys lasting through much of Monday and possibly into Tuesday.
Much of this will depend on the interaction and eventual merging
of two upper level lows, a pattern progression that models are
likewise struggling to resolve. There is much better confidence
for heavier, steady rainfall to spread along the the north Gulf
Coast near the occluded front wrapping out from the low center,
particularly from Monday afternoon through most of Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Tuesday)...

A lot of rain is on the way to Southwest AK tonight from a broad
frontal system over the Bering. Associated shortwaves will bring
increased clouds and enhanced showers into Sunday at the same time
another vigorous shortwave from the North Pacific enters the
Alaska Peninsula Sunday afternoon, which could reinforce lingering
moisture and clouds to push across Bristol Bay and through the
southern part of Alaska Range into Monday afternoon. Gusty winds
associated with this pattern will pass through the gaps and
passes, with stronger winds up to 30 mph expected over Bristol
Bay on Sunday. Then, an emerging upper-level ridge behind this
wet pattern shifts across Southwest starting Tuesday morning
providing a nice break from showers over much of the region except
for Southwest Coast. The arrival of another series of shortwaves
from the Bering over Southwest Coast by Tuesday morning leads to
more rain and clouds making their way through the Kuskokwim Delta
into Tuesday night. Overall, anticipate a very wet pattern in the
coming days with a brief breaks in showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday)...

A rainy pattern and small craft conditions will continue into
Sunday over much of the Aleutian Chain especially with the onset
of different surface to upper-level lows expected over the Bering
through the short term. Low cloud deck and stratus will gradually
shift east from the Pribilof Islands by Sunday, otherwise it will
be a quiet forecast for the region.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

Expect winds less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft for the
Day 3 through 5 period for nearly all of the area. A weak low
moving over the central Bering Tuesday night may produce a small
area of gale force (35 kt +) winds that quickly tracks south over
the central and western Aleutians before dissipating.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The long-term forecast starts out Wednesday on the quiet side
overall. A weak low in the Gulf and weak upper troughing may
produce disorganized showers through the day, keeping things
mainly cloudy over the southern Mainland. None of the shower
activity looks to be particularly heavy. Meanwhile a stronger
upper low over the Central Aleutians will slow down and pivot
eastward along the Eastern Aleutians Wednesday night. A large
area of ridging and high pressure moves into the Western
Aleutians behind this low.

On Thursday, as weak ridging builds into Southcentral, the
aforementioned low now south of the AKPEN will begin merging with
a polar trough digging southward across Northern Alaska. This will
allow for some rainfall to develop across Southwest Alaska between
these features. Meanwhile the ridging will continue building and
expanding westward across nearly all of the Bering by the end of
the day.

On Friday, the upper low moves into the Gulf as the northern
Alaska trough moves into the Susitna Valley. As a surface low
develops over the northern Gulf, rain is likely to break out
across much of Southcentral during the day. Depending on exactly
how these features interact, the rain could be heavy at times.
There remains some uncertainty in that regard. Up through this
point forecast confidence is above normal, as there is quite good
model agreement on the movement of these features. Ridging begins
to build into Southwest Alaska from the Bering, and the next low
may approach the far western Aleutians for the second half of the
day, but there is high uncertainty on the timing.

On Saturday, there is fairly good model agreement that the ridging
advances into at least all of Southwest Alaska, and possibly the
Cook Inlet region as well. This will depend on how quickly the low
and upper level troughing exits the area to the east, of which
there remains considerable uncertainty. There's a much higher
likelihood that by Saturday the next low and front pushes into the
Western Bering and Aleutians, causing active weather there.

Looking ahead with a large ridge moving into Southcentral,
conditions are looking favorable for a few day period of dry,
quiet, seasonable weather from Sunday right into early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 131.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
MARINE/LONG TERM...JW