Small Craft Advisory 629, NWS Anchorage, AK

799 
FZAK51 PAFC 112351
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
351 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-121230-
351 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1003 mb low 65 nm west of Sitkinak will move to 50 nm southwest
of Homer then dissipate as it moves northward in Cook Inlet. A 
1009 mb North Pacific low Thu evening will move to 175 nm 
south of Yakutat at 1003 mb Fri morning then inland near Yakutat
Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-121230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
351 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. SE wind 25 kt near the coast in the evening. 
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-121230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
351 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. NE wind 25 kt along the coast in the
evening. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-121230-
Resurrection Bay-
351 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-121230-
Prince William Sound-
351 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-121230-
Port Valdez-
351 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-121230-
Valdez Narrows-
351 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt in the evening becoming NE 
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-121230-
Valdez Arm-
351 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Rain showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-121230-
Passage Canal-
351 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain
showers.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-121230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
351 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-121230-
Barren Islands East-
351 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-121230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
351 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-121230-
Chiniak Bay-
351 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-121230-
Marmot Bay-
351 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-121230-
Shelikof Strait-
351 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming W wind 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-121230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
351 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight.
Rain.
.THU...W wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-121230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
351 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-121230-
Kachemak Bay-
351 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

028 
FZAK51 PAFC 121131
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
331 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-130015-
331 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1009 mb North Pacific low Thu evening will move to 160 nm 
southwest of Yakutat at 1004 mb Fri morning and then inland near 
Yakutat Fri afternoon. A 1007 mb low will develop near Cook Inlet Fri
afternoon and move to 40 nm southeast of Seward Sat morning.

$$

PKZ119-130015-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
331 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-130015-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
331 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-130015-
Resurrection Bay-
331 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-130015-
Prince William Sound-
331 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-130015-
Port Valdez-
331 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-130015-
Valdez Narrows-
331 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-130015-
Valdez Arm-
331 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-130015-
Passage Canal-
331 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-130015-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
331 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-130015-
Barren Islands East-
331 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-130015-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
331 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-130015-
Chiniak Bay-
331 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-130015-
Marmot Bay-
331 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-130015-
Shelikof Strait-
331 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-130015-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
331 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-130015-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
331 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-130015-
Kachemak Bay-
331 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 PM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Tropical moisture and remnants of typhoons continue to stream
into Southcentral AK by way of the jetstream acting like a
conveyer belt bringing energy all the way across from the Western
Pacific. This setup is aided by longwave troughing digging south
through the Bering Sea from a closed 500 MB all the over the
Arctic Ocean.

On the surface, bands of rain and rain showers continue to work
their way through Southcentral AK from South to North with the
latest system. Some showery activity is in Southwest AK and the
Bering Sea as well. Due to low pressure in place over our entire
forecast area, weather remains unsettled with cloudy and cool
conditions in all locations.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are performing well on the synoptic scale. They are all in
agreement of the general flow of weather extending from the
Western Pacific and into the Gulf of Alaska. They are also
handling long wave troughing over the Bering. Models are having
some difficulty in the mesoscale, with inconsistent run to run
handling of short waves moving through this flow into Southcentral
AK. Therefore, high confidence on the synoptic scale and moderate
confidence on the particulars.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through Wednesday
morning before rain and lower ceilings move over the terminal.
The biggest challenge through the TAF package will be the extent
that Turnagain Arm winds bend over the terminal. Southeasterly
winds are expected to increase and bend over the complex this
evening with occasional gusts near 20 kts. Winds may then diminish
for a time overnight. Confidence in the wind forecast drops
Wednesday morning right when the Turnagain Arm winds are expected
to once again increase. Winds are expected to bend back over the
terminal; however, there may be periods when a northerly wind
moves over the terminal as the TA wind battles with a northerly
flow due to an increasing pressure gradient from a surface low
well south of Anchorage. The northerly wind is expected to
prevail by mid afternoon Wednesday as the low moves closer to the
Southcentral coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Last night's system that brought another round of rain to the
region has since exited into the panhandle. A series of shortwaves
and lingering upper level energy from the most recent system will
continue to produce showers over the interior areas tonight. On
Wednesday, the third of a series of disturbances with tropical
origins will move into the region from the southwest. Deep
south to southwesterly flow will persist over Southcentral through
at least Thursday. The bulk of the heavy precipitation will be
over the eastern Prince William Sound, Copper River Basin, and
the northern Gulf Coast. Total rain through Thursday afternoon is
expected to be between 1.5 and 2.5 inches for Valdez and Cordova,
with 0.75 to 1.5 inches expected from Seward to Whittier. With
the broad southwesterly flow, the western Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage, and Mat-Su will see persistent light to moderate rain
as well. Any perturbations in the upper level flow to the west
cloud lead to periods of heavy rain for these areas. On Friday,
the bulk of the upper level energy will shift east, beginning the
drying trend for the start of the weekend, though a few showers
remain possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Friday afternoon)...

An unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue for much of
Southwest through the forecast period. As a result, expect the
mostly cloudy/cloudy, showery, and cool conditions to continue. A
series of shortwaves will continue to move through Southwest
through the forecast period that will be responsible for the
occasional rain showers from time to time. A potent shortwave is
expected to move from south to north from Sand Point/Chignik area
this afternoon to west of Lime Village by Wednesday evening. As a
result, expect a steadier and more widespread rain for areas
along the Alaska Peninsula northward to the western Alaska Range
beginning early Wednesday continuing through Thursday afternoon.

Rain will start for areas around Chignik to Nelson Lagoon and
Port Heiden early Wednesday. Rain will then continue spreading
northward into Pilot Point, King Salmon, and Iliamna as the
morning wears on. The furthest west point of the steady rain is
expected to be on a New Stuyahok to Dillingham line. Steady rain
reaches Lime Village Wednesday afternoon and continues through
Thursday morning before diminishing to more showery conditions.
Overall rainfall totals from this event for the above mentioned
villages will be on the order of 0.05-0.3" with locally 0.3-0.5"
where the steadiest rain occurs or remains the most persistent.
Marine areas to the south of the Alaska Peninsula are expected to
have small craft advisory level winds as this low moves northward
tonight through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Friday afternoon)...

A fairly benign pattern is expected to continue across the Bering
for the forecast period. Expect multiple weak pieces of upper
level energy to continue moving through the Bering and the
Aleutian Chain through the period bringing occasional rain showers
with some areas of sunshine in between. A storm system moving
mainly west to east across the North Pacific may graze the
southernmost marine zones of the Western and Central Aleutians
with small craft advisory level winds on Friday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday)...

The marine forecast will be relatively quiet as small craft
conditions pass through a portion of the Bering and Gulf of Alaska
through the weekend. Not a whole lot of winds and seas activity
will occur except a lot of rain and tropical moisture will pass
through the south of the Aleutian Chain and across the western
Gulf into the end of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Thursday through
Monday)...

Increased clouds and rainfall will remain in the long term
forecast as a result of three separate upper level troughs making
their way through the region starting with the first longwave from
Siberia. A series of upper lows from the Arctic will transit from
west to east past Siberia over the weekend, leading to the first
trough descending past Yukon Delta through Southwest Coast which
will bring considerable amounts of measurable rain over Southwest
AK until it runs into the upper level ridge ahead of it by
Saturday night. Meanwhile, a Northwest Pacific low passes to the
south of the Aleutian Chain then later transitions to a trough
before merging with the second Arctic trough by Monday afternoon.
Though models differ with the placement of the Northwest Pacific
low, solutions seem to agree on bringing a lot of tropical
moisture throughout the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN, and across
the Gulf and Southcentral over the weekend into earlier next week.
While rainfall is expected in the forecast, models are doubling
down on increased moisture and rainfall crossing through the Gulf
and Southcentral. Yet winds associated with this latter system
could very likely remain near small crafts.

Over the Bering and much of the Aleutian Chain, a ridge of high
pressure will migrate from west to east leading to low level
clouds and stratus to linger there through early next week. As a
result, a relatively quiet forecast is expected over the Bering
and the Aleutians except for some rain passing through the eastern
Aleutians this weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning .
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BJB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CJ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MV
MARINE/LONG TERM...CB