Small Craft Advisory 592, NWS Anchorage, AK

965 
FZAK52 PAFC 301208
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-310130-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A stationary front over the Eastern Bering stretches from the 
Eastern Aleutians into Southwest Alaska through Sun morning. A 
second front moves into the Western Bering today and exits to the 
north by Sat evening. A 997 mb low at 52N 174E on Sat evening 
moves to 53N 177E at 992 mb on Sun morning. 

$$

PKZ150-310130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-310130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt Shumagin Islands W...S 20 kt Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-310130-
Bristol Bay-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-310130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-310130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-310130-
Unalaska Bay-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-310130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-310130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-310130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-310130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-310130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. 
Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-310130-
Adak to Kiska-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ178-310130-
Kiska to Attu-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-310130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-310130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-310130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-310130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 25 kt in the
morning increasing to 35 kt W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 9 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
612 AM AKDT Thu Jul 29 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

High pressure over the western Gulf continues to lift
northeastward toward Southcentral Alaska this morning. A large
upper-level low is situated over the Bering, with a slow moving
front to its south. Satellite imagery is showing its front
extending from the central Aleutians northeastward into the
Kuskokwim Delta. Moisture associated with the front is spilling
over the ridge and causing widespread cloud cover in Southcentral
Alaska. Low level stratus and areas of fog are blanketing both
sides of the Aleutians with the only breaks in cloud cover
for the eastern Aleutians and AKPen occurring due to the
downsloping of winds. Radar is showing several areas of light rain
from the Mat-Su Valleys to the Chugach Mountains this morning.
Much of this is not reaching the valley floors, with the exception
of some very light rain reported in Anchorage and Talkeetna this
morning. Out west, strong southerly surface winds continue to
impact the west coast ahead of the front. These effects should
wind down as the front moves farther east.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

A few differences are present in the models for the short term,
but overall agreement should persist through the end of the week.
Model spread grows over the weekend with discrepancies concerning
the placement of the trough located in the Bering and another
subtle disturbance over the Aleutians. However, ridging over
Southcentral will prevail into the end of the week, and will help
to limit any meaningful movement of the front over the Bering.
Over Southcentral, a transition pattern maintains with it being
stuck between high and low pressure. This can cause uncertainty
due to the models having difficulty picking up subtle weather
features in this environment. Otherwise, forecast confidence
remains high with the big picture.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR conditions are expected to continue through at least this
morning as low level moisture and clouds persist. An area of very
light rain has also moved over the terminal this morning, but is
expected to taper off over by mid morning. A ridge building in
today should help scour out the low level moisture and break up
the lower ceilings (with clouds remaining below 5,000 ft) by late
afternoon afternoon or early evening. The 12z upper air sounding
is showing some drying in the mid-levels (700 mb or ~10,000 ft
AGL) Confidence remains low regarding the timing of this and the
extent of clearing, though, as the overall wind flow remains weak
and westerly. This could as the very least keep low clouds banked
up along the hillside, just outside the terminal. MVFR conditions
are expected again overnight as another system approaches from the
west.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The main forecast challenge in the short term will be the extent
of clouds cover across interior Southcentral, as there remains
plenty of residual moisture lingering from the trough that moved
through yesterday. Satellite imagery this morning shows a solid
shield of low clouds encompassing much of the region. The
exception to this is along Cook Inlet, where is more influence
from a building ridge situated over Kodiak Island. It does appear
that the ridge will continue to build northward, and, thus, should
help lift and break apart clouds, especially from the western
Kenai Peninsula north to the Mat-Su valleys. A weak westerly flow,
however, could keep clouds banked up along the Talkeetna and
Chugach Ranges.

Clouds will also begin to diminish across the Copper River Basin
this evening, providing for clearer skies and milder temperatures
for Friday. For eastern Southcentral, any clearing trend through
the evening and overnight hours will be brief as clouds are
expected to increase once again by Friday afternoon in advance of
another advancing upper-level trough.

Fog is another concern. This morning's nighttime microphysics
satellite imagery shows areas of low stratus and fog expanding
over parts of the western and northern Gulf. With the ridge
deepening, it is likely that this trend will continue, with low
clouds and patchy fog spreading across the Barren Islands,
southern Cook Inlet, and perhaps over eastern Kodiak Island
through the end of the week.

&&.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2: Today
through Saturday)...

The status quo over the next several days will continue with the
same theme of wet, cloudy and cool conditions as deep
southwesterly flow continues to stream across the entire
Southwest on the upstream side of a ridge that remains parked over
the Gulf and eastern mainland. A series of shortwave impulses
tracking allowing the remains of a front sprawled between the
Kuskokwim Delta and the Eastern Aleutians will continue to focus
bands of steady stratiform rain inland, especially over the Y-K
Delta through Friday morning. A much more potent shortwave and
attendant surface low/front will come ashore by Friday evening,
bringing another round of moderate rain and increased
southwesterly winds across most of the Southwest. Fortunately, the
onshore winds will remain well below levels observed during the
past 24 hours and are no longer expected to result in any
continued water buildup along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast.
Therefore, the High Surf Advisory has been discontinued with this
forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2:
Today through Saturday)...

A weakening front will remain nearly stationary over the eastern
Bering/Aleutians and continue to focus areas of rain along the
eastern Aleutian Chain and AKPen, especially where moist southerly
flow encounters steeper terrain and concentrates upslope lift.
Showers will likewise linger near the Pribilofs along with areas
of low marine stratus and fog for the next couple days. A new
system will track across the northern and western Bering from late
Friday to Saturday, bringing with it another round of moderate
rain and southerly small craft winds to the far northern and
western regions of the AOR. This low's trailing front will merge
with the old front still meandering farther east, spreading
another round of small craft strength winds and rain into the
eastern Bering by Saturday morning. Generally, expect the early
wet, misty and blustery fall pattern to continue into at least
the first half of the weekend.

&&
.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

A series of lows will transit the Aleutians and Bering Sea.
At the moment it looks like winds will top out at small craft
advisory level. However, there could be some small areas of
gale force winds, especially on Sunday as a low deepens over
the south-central Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

A longwave trough digs into the Western Bering starting Sunday.
A moderate low develops in the left exit region of the jet, where
it crosses the Western Aleutians into the Bering through Monday.
As the low becomes stacked and retrogrades towards Kamchatka on
Tuesday, its front stalls across the Central Bering.

There is fairly good model agreement between the GFS, ECMWF, and
Canadian on the development and general position of both the
longwave trough and Bering low. Models remain consistent until
Tuesday, when they begin to diverge more strongly on the strength
and position of the low.

While rain and stronger winds are expected with the passage of
the front in the Bering, conditions are expected to stay mostly
dry in Southcentral Alaska due to lingering high pressure in the
Gulf. Forecast confidence drops in the Tue/Wed time period, as
models struggle with how long the upper ridge will hold on. In
all likelihood, the ridge will at least weaken, leading to an
increase in clouds and chance of rain as we head through the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM/NS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/KC