Small Craft Advisory 551, NWS Anchorage, AK

248 
FZAK51 PAFC 131117
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
317 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-140015-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1012 mb low 150 nm east of Kodiak City remains nearly 
stationary through Wed morning before dissipating. 

$$

PKZ119-140015-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ120-140015-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ121-140015-
Resurrection Bay-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N during the evening. 
Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-140015-
Prince William Sound-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-140015-
Port Valdez-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-140015-
Valdez Narrows-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW wind 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW wind 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-140015-
Valdez Arm-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-140015-
Passage Canal-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT AND WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-140015-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming variable in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT AND WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-140015-
Barren Islands East-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ132-140015-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ136-140015-
Chiniak Bay-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT AND WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-140015-
Marmot Bay-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-140015-
Shelikof Strait-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT AND WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-140015-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-140015-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas building to 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-140015-
Kachemak Bay-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
501 AM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The synoptic pattern is generally unchanged from yesterday. A
broad, upper low continues to encompass much of the Gulf. Water
vapor shows a large swath of moisture wrapping around the
eastern/northern side of the associated surface low, bringing
widespread rain across Prince William Sound and the Kenai
Peninsula. Likewise, easterly gales have been observed in the
adjacent coastal waters. Satellite shows skies generally clearing
from south to north, particularly over southwest Alaska where the
strongest offshore flow exists. The Bering remains mostly quiet
with a weak non-impactful upper low tracking north of the western
Aleutians. As such, the usual low status/fog will persist this
morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models have come into better agreement from yesterday regarding
the timing/placement of the precipitation moving inland Monday
into Tuesday. Much of Southcentral Alaska will likely see at least
a brief period of rain over that time frame with the QPF extending
as far north as the Alaska Range. All models show the low
weakening by Wednesday, bringing clearing skies across much of the
state.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light winds will continue until Monday afternoon, when the
usual Turnagain wind is expected to develop. As with yesterday,
it should remain below 20 kts. VFR ceilings will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Mon
through Wed)...

A lot is set to change in the weather over the course of the next
few days. First off, our low in the Gulf of AK is now nearly
stationary and vertically stacked. As such, it will continue to
slowly weaken in place over the course of the next 24 hours.
It continues to pump rain and showers over the coastal locations
on down through Kodiak Island. Winds are slowly abating with the
only remaining gale warning now near Middleton Island. This pesky
low will continue to bring clouds over much of the southern
mainland today, though the further north you go, the less cloud
cover there should be.

A strong wave currently south of the low will pivot north in
counter-clockwise flow today. It will slide over the Copper River
Basin by this afternoon and then start its long trek across nearly
all of Southcentral. This wave will bring widespread moderate
rain as it moves through the area. Ahead of this feature, expect
some breezy winds to once again develop in the SE valleys (Knik,
Copper, Turnagain) this afternoon. The rain should arrive in
Palmer and Anchorage late this evening and bring a steady soaking
rains for the gardens. It will continue its track south into Kenai
and then Kodiak by early Tue morning. As the system clears to the
west, it will start the trend of a drier pattern settling in.

By Tue afternoon-evening, high pressure will start to push over
much of Southcentral, bringing an end to the rain. The lone
exception could be over the Copper River Basin where some
instability could lead to some showers, especially along the
mountains. For the rest of the rest of the area, northerly flow in
the upper levels by Wed morning will start to bring warmer and
drier conditions for at least a couple of days. However, it does
look like there will still be enough moisture in the mid and high
levels to keep a fair amount of clouds in the forecast. One piece
of energy will come over the ridge of high pressure into the
Copper River Basin Wed afternoon. This once again will trigger
some more widespread showers over that area and could even be
enough for a lightning strike or two. All in all though, a much
quieter pattern will ensue to end the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

The low pressure system over the Gulf will spin a couple of
shortwaves through the Bristol Bay region through Wednesday which
will produce periods of mostly cloudy skies and a few light
showers, but most areas will remain dry through the period.
Patchy morning fog will be possible for the Kuskokwim Delta
Tuesday and Wednesday morning as high pressure edges into the
area. Otherwise the first shortwave will move across Bristol Bay
today producing mid level clouds and a few light showers. A second
shortwave will move across the Bristol Bay region Tuesday. Both
these shortwaves will bring the threat of light showers but very
limited rainfall out of most showers in valley locations as the
low levels remain a bit dry. Wednesday a few showers are still
possible across the Bristol Bay region, but high pressure begins
to shift east towards western Alaska which will effectively to put
an end to most of these showers by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

A weak low north of Shemya will continue to spin and remain nearly
stationary through Tuesday and then turn westward on Wednesday
with no significant impacts expected. While the rest of the
Bering and Aleutians will be under the influence of a high
pressure system centered over the northern Bering through the
short term. This high will bring widespread low clouds and areas
of fog through Wednesday with just a slight shift of the high to
the east Monday through Wednesday. Otherwise another North Pacific
low will move south of the Aleutians today and Tuesday with
periods of rain and winds less than 25 knots. Tuesday night this
low will move into the northern Pacific. Another low near the
Kamchatka Peninsula will begin to influence the western Bering and
western Aleutians on Wednesday with periods of rain and southerly
winds less than 25 knots.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Wednesday through Friday)...

High pressure moves into the Eastern Bering with light winds
through Friday. A new low approaches the Western Aleutians for
Friday, with gusty winds less than gale force spreading into the
central Bering. Forecast confidence is good. A Central Gulf low
exits through the Southeastern Gulf Thursday. Gusty gap winds less
than gale force through the Barren Island and Sitkinak Gap into
the Western Gulf late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

The long term begins on Thursday with the upper-level low over
the central Gulf today (Sunday) continuing to track southeast
toward British Columbia. Upstream, an upper-level ridge amplifies
along the west coast of Alaska. This pattern will set up a drier
northerly flow across the Southern Mainland, with temperatures
likely climbing back above normal, especially for areas away from
the coast. While Thursday does look warmer, there may still be a
chance for clouds and showers from the Talkeetna Mountains east
across the Copper River Basin as a shortwave moves south,
ejecting from an upper-level low moving east along the Canadian
Arctic.

On Friday, the ridge axis looks to shift slightly east, extending
across the interior of the state. This shift will likely help
strengthen the thermal trough, leading to even warmer
temperatures. The caveat to this will be whether or not there is
any influence from a potential second eastward propagating
shortwave. Right now, the GFS is more bullish with the EC
deepening the ridge. Either way, most of the energy with this
potential feature looks to remain along and north of the Alaska
Range, with any showers confined to the higher elevations of
Southcentral.

Model divergence grows by the weekend, but all keep some
semblance of the ridge over the region. The question centers the
progression of a third shortwave from the west. The GFS and GEM
are again showing this feature mainly traversing the Alaska Range,
with an eventual push into the Copper River Basin by Sunday
morning. The EC depicts a stronger closed low dropping from the
Kuskokwim Delta to Kodiak Island by Sunday morning. In terms of
precipitation, the GFS and GEM hint at another round of showers
from the Talkeetna Mountains east by late Saturday. The EC,
though, extends the shower activity over Southwest Alaska. Bottom
line, the shift in the orientation of the longwave ridge/trough
pattern will yield conditions more expectant of mid-July.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 119.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/TM