Small Craft Advisory 471, NWS Anchorage, AK

649 
FZAK51 PAFC 131152
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 AM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-140030-
352 AM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

Weak low pressure along the North Gulf Coast dissipates by Sun 
afternoon. High pressure moves over the Gulf through Tue morning.

$$

PKZ119-140030-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
352 AM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-140030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
352 AM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-140030-
Resurrection Bay-
352 AM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-140030-
Prince William Sound-
352 AM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-140030-
Port Valdez-
352 AM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-140030-
Valdez Narrows-
352 AM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-140030-
Valdez Arm-
352 AM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-140030-
Passage Canal-
352 AM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-140030-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
352 AM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-140030-
Barren Islands East-
352 AM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-140030-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
352 AM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-140030-
Chiniak Bay-
352 AM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-140030-
Marmot Bay-
352 AM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-140030-
Shelikof Strait-
352 AM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-140030-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
352 AM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-140030-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
352 AM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-140030-
Kachemak Bay-
352 AM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
501 AM AKDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Aloft, a complex pattern exists over Alaska today. Weak flow
continues over Southcentral AK. However, a difference in the
pattern from yesterday is that a closed 500mb low is sliding
southeast across Southwest AK, which has added at least some flow
aloft and has diminished the col at least a bit. It is also
sandwiching a shortwave ridge in the Gulf between it and a low off
the the coast of British Columbia. Over the Bering, zonal flow
exists coming around the based of a long wave trough with multiple
low centers. This zonal flow is also nearly cutting off a low in
the North Pacific just south of the Aleutians. All of this to say
there are multiple lows in play and some complicated long wave
troughing, with high pressure managing to sneak into Southcentral.

On the surface, weather is much more simple with high pressure
over mainland AK. Two surface lows exist in the Bering, one in the
Eastern Bering and another moving east into the Central Bering.
The low in the Eastern Bering is weakening and will be absorbed
into the second low later today. Before it does, it will continue
to push a surface front through Southwest AK. This front is
producing a band of rain and rain showers moving through
Southwest AK that can be observed on RADAR. So, active weather in
the Bering and Southwest AK with high pressure keeping things
generally quiet in Southcentral AK.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue to perform well. They have been consistent in
depicting synoptic scale features at least for the past day. The
primary forecast challenge continues to be location for convection
in Southcentral. High confidence overall in model guidance today.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through today.
A weak Turnagain Arm wind event will cause winds to switch to the
south and become gusty tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Sat
night through Mon night)...

An upper-level ridge over the eastern half of the state will allow
summer-like weather to continue across the region through the
next several days. A weak surface trough over Prince William Sound
this morning will weaken as it drifts south over the Gulf. As it
does, the gusty gap winds along eastern Kenai Peninsula coast will
diminish. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected
during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday and Sunday with
the best chance for more widespread convective activity today.
This is due to an upper-level wave bifurcating the ridge and
lifting north across the region this afternoon as a weak southerly
flow develops ahead of an upstream shortwave dropping south into
the western Gulf. The best chance for convection will be over the
Copper River Basin, and Mat-Su Valleys with thunderstorm activity
most likely over the higher terrain of the Wrangell, Talkeetna,
and northern extent of the Chugach Mountains.

The upper-level ridge will re-establish itself by late Sunday and
deepen in the wake of the aforementioned shortwave. The ridge
axis will settle over Southcentral for Monday. Subsidence from the
strengthening ridge will help further warm and dry the airmass,
inhibiting convective development Monday afternoon and evening.
With 850 mb temperatures warming to between 10 and 13C, daytime
highs across interior Southcentral will continue to trend warmer,
climbing from the upper 60s and lower 70s today into the middle to
upper 70s by the start of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level low is diving southeast along the Southwest Coast
towards Kodiak Island today. Overall, it will be relatively non-
impactful aside from a few brief light rain showers and some low
cloud ceilings. Most of the Southwest Mainland should begin to
clear out and warm up by tomorrow afternoon after the system moves
out, exceptions being the Kuskokwim Delta and the immediate
Southwest coastal regions. These areas will likely remain locked
in with low cloud cover and patchy fog throughout the forecast
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Most of the Bering remains relatively calm through tonight until a
shortwave off a North Pacific low pushes across the Aleutians
early tomorrow morning. Gusty southerly winds are expected through
the bays and passes of the Eastern Aleutians and parts of the
Southern AKPen as the low approaches. Additionally, persistent
rain showers are likely across the Eastern Aleutians and Southern
AKPen tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night, extending
northward across the Pribilofs and the northern Bering tomorrow
night.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/ Monday through Wednesday)...

The focus for organized storm system will be across the Bering Sea
and Aleutians. Starting Monday, a low will be positioned south of
the eastern Aleutians with a front extending northward across the
southern Alaska Peninsula into the eastern Bering Sea. Winds along
the front will primarily top out at small craft advisory levels,
though there could be gale force southerlies through bays and
passes along the Alaska Peninsula on Monday. Expect improving
conditions beginning Monday night as the low exits to the Pacific.

Another low will track in the vicinity of the Aleutians Monday
night through Wednesday, though at this point the track and
strength of this low are very much in question. At this point and
based on time of year, expect winds will likely top out at small
craft advisory with this system

Elsewhere, expect winds less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft
for the Day 3 through 5 period.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

A much warmer, summer transitional pattern is in place for both
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska in the new week. Model
guidance continues to anchor the combined surface to upper-level
ridge across the State through Friday. The 850 mb temperature
solution has widen the 8 to 10 degrees Celcius coverage area from
across Southcentral through the interior of Bristol Bay into at
least Wed night, leading to more favorable mid-morning to
afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. A developing
Northwest Pacific low on Tuesday will either stay south of the
Aleutians or cross over the Aleutians/Bering Sea between
Thursday/Friday. GEM and ECMWF shares a similar forward motion
track of the low while GFS hints at placing two separate
circulations over the western Bering, with the first one moving
northward on Tuesday then weakens by Wednesday afternoon. The
second low from the Northwest Pacific barrels to the south of the
Aleutians on Wednesday night then dips back into the North
Pacific through Thursday night. This system will usher gales for
mostly the Aleutians and perhaps along the southern Bering
depending on how close it moves near the Aleutians which could
influence the sea heights, Bays and Passes. Overall, the model
confidence is high for Southcentral but moderate confidence for
the Bering Sea and Aleutians region.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BJB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
MARINE/LONG TERM...SEB/CB