Small Craft Advisory 389, NWS Anchorage, AK

981 
FZAK51 PAFC 152352
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-161245-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1007 mb low 15 nm West of Middleton Island moves inland to the 
west and dissipates Sun afternoon. Its front over the North Gulf 
Coast dissipates Sun afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-161245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Near the coast, E wind 20 kt becoming S
after midnight. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-161245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-161245-
Resurrection Bay-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-161245-
Prince William Sound-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt. Seas 3 
ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-161245-
Port Valdez-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-161245-
Valdez Narrows-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-161245-
Valdez Arm-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-161245-
Passage Canal-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-161245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-161245-
Barren Islands East-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-161245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-161245-
Chiniak Bay-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ137-161245-
Marmot Bay-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-161245-
Shelikof Strait-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-161245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-161245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-161245-
Kachemak Bay-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE less than 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...The upper levels have been slow to
change much over the past 24 hours. The dominant feature continues
to be a cold core low centered over the Southern Bering Sea. As
this low is fully mature and occluding, there is not as much
moisture as it as there was yesterday. The front associated with
the system stretches across the southern Mainland and into the
Gulf of Alaska. Bands of rain stretch from the Kuskokwim Delta
through interior Bristol Bay and Kodiak Island. A disturbance
aloft is present on water vapor satellite and is in the process of
spinning up a new surface low pressure along that frontal
boundary. The front is beginning to impinge on the north Gulf
coast which is building surface pressure and pushing air through
the gaps resulting in Turnagain Arm and Knik River wind.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Guidance is in great agreement with the track of the surface low
pressure east of Kodiak Island into the northern Gulf of Alaska.
The same goes for the Bering Sea system, moving it into the
southern Gulf on Sunday. The main differences with the first
system are how far inland the precipitation progresses, generally
along the coast but there is some variation on the Kenai
Peninsula. Secondly, as we transition into an afternoon/evening
mountain convection pattern, there are difference on how and where
the showers/storms initiate and evolve.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Turnagain Arm winds will remain gusty through the late
evening before relaxing overnight. They will return tomorrow
afternoon, but much less gusty compared to today.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

A relative lull in the weather along with clear to partly cloudy
skies over interior valleys with very little on the way of upper
level flow across Southcentral. The ample sunshine has
significantly warmed the low levels today, resulting in very steep
lapse rates near the surface and some slight convective
instability, especially near the Susitna Valley and Copper River
Basin where a well-defined cumulus field has developed. An
isolated lightning strike or two is possible with showers fueled
by the low level instability this evening, mainly near the
Talkeetna Mountains, Wrangells and northern Alaska Range. Any
lightning activity should remain very limited in coverage with
only marginal moisture in place and only a small window for
stronger updrafts to materialize before the boundary layer quickly
stabilizes after dark.

The brief spell of pleasant, summer-like conditions over interior
Southcentral will be short lived as an occluded front and an
associated surface low drift into the North Gulf Coast. This will
bring a cooler and more moist air mass back into place along with
cloud cover spreading over nearly the entire area by Saturday.
Widely scattered showers will move in along with the clouds,
particularly close to the North Gulf Coast, near where the small
surface low will stall out on Saturday. An upper level low moving
across/south of the AKPen and into the Gulf will keep the cool
and showery pattern around through Sunday, but showers should
become a bit more sparse as the weekend closes out.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The remnants of an occluded front remain over the Central and
Eastern Bering. This system is going to continue to decay and the
upper level low will push southeastward across the AKPEN. This
system has already lost its gusto but it will bring showers to
Bristol Bay and the AKPEN. The models are ginning up another upper
level low over NE Russia and this system will clip the Y-K Delta
on Monday. Otherwise, most of SW Alaska will experience a warming
trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The remnants of an occluded front remain over the Central and
Eastern Bering. This system is going to continue to weaken and
the upper level low will push southeastward across the AKPEN. This
system has already past its prime but it will bring showers
portions of the Central and Eastern Aleutians. High pressure will
follow in the wake of this low. There is a broad upper level
trough from NE Russia to the NW Pacific. There are numerous
shortwaves embedded in this feature. Its possible that some of
these shortwaves will glide around the back side of the high.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

High pressure with generally light winds moves across the Bering
through Wednesday. A North Pacific low approaches the Central
Aleutians with areas of small craft winds over the Southern
Bering for Wednesday. Light winds over the Gulf through Wednesday.
A front approaching the Western Gulf brings gusty winds East of
Shumagin Islands for Wednesday.

&&

.Long Term Forecast (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Saturday)...
Models have locked onto a pattern of sustained high pressure and
continue it through the week, so high confidence most areas will
have our first stretch of nice weather. Models also still indicate
a low working its way east across the Aleutians - entering the
Western Aleutians Tuesday and exiting southeast into the North
Pacific late in the week. It looks to impact weather on the
Southwest Coast as well before it exits. Some variability in low
track with models does exist here, so moderate confidence in what
this system will do, though confidence is higher this system will
develop and be gale force at best since models have been
consistent in development and strength. High pressure returns to
all locations by the weekend. All in all, a quiet week with fair
weather.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO/MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/BB