Small Craft Advisory 373, NWS Anchorage, AK

496 
FZAK52 PAFC 091144
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-100030-
344 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 997 mb low complex 30 nm NE of Atka moves to 100 nm NE of 
Unalaska at 1001 mb Sun afternoon. The low weakens to 1007 mb 
and moves 50 nm NE of St Paul Island. 

$$

PKZ150-100030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
344 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-100030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
344 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-100030-
Bristol Bay-
344 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-100030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
344 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-100030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
344 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-100030-
Unalaska Bay-
344 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-100030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
344 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-100030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
344 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-100030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
344 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-100030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
344 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-100030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
344 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-100030-
Adak to Kiska-
344 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-100030-
Kiska to Attu-
344 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-100030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
344 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-100030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
344 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-100030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
344 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-100030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
344 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

382 
FZAK52 PAFC 100002
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
402 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-101300-
402 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1001 mb low 70 nm south of Nikolski moves east to merge with a 
1015 mb low in Cook Inlet Tue afternoon. Its front moves into the 
North Pacific through Tue afternoon. A 1002 mb low 125 nm north of 
Dutch Harbor moves to 280 nm west of St Matthew Island and dissipates
Tue afternoon. Its front moves into western Alaska through Tue 
afternoon.


$$

PKZ150-101300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
402 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-101300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
402 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-101300-
Bristol Bay-
402 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-101300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
402 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-101300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
402 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-101300-
Unalaska Bay-
402 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-101300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
402 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ173-101300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
402 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-101300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
402 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ175-101300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
402 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-101300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
402 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-101300-
Adak to Kiska-
402 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-101300-
Kiska to Attu-
402 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-101300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
402 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-101300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
402 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-101300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
402 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Rain and 
snow.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-101300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
402 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
513 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Looking at the jet stream and the 300 mb heights, there is a broad
trough over the Bering and into the North Pacific. On satellite
imagery, at the surface the remnants of a frontal boundary are
entering the Gulf of Alaska and SW Alaska. All the while, another
low is spinning up well south of Unalaska in the high seas of the
North Pacific. The radars at Bethel, King Salmon and Kenai have
detected precipitation from the decaying front. A Flood Watch
remains in effect for portions of the Kuskokwim River.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue to perform well depicting the general synoptic
pattern. The run to run continuity is decent with the GFS, NAM and
Canadian. There is some fog and low stratus on the Nighttime
Microphysics imagery which is a specialized satellite channel and
historically fog is not modeled well in Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. The "Turnagain Arm Wind" will
develop again later today...peak...and slacken in the evening.
There are some showers on the radar near PANC but at this time
they are not expected to move over the aerodrome.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The overall pattern is very similar to yesterday over Southcentral
with a weak surface low near Kodiak Islands and an upper level
trough in the southern Gulf of Alaska moving northward. In spite
of the similarities to yesterday, there are some important
differences. First off, there is less moisture in the areas
farther east in this system. Therefore there will be less rainfall
in the Prince William Sound area, with the Copper River Basin
remaining mostly dry.

The winds that came through Anchorage and the Matanuska valley
will be around again today, though likely not quite as strong.
These winds really dried out the lower levels of the atmosphere.
As of early this morning, there are quite a few returns on the
Kenai Radar over the western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage and toward
Palmer, but it looks like this is almost all virga with the
precipitation evaporating before it reaches the ground. The 12Z
Anchorage sounding showed this dry air from the surface to around
mountaintop level with the air becoming saturated about 7000 ft
and higher. At this point it looks like the virga will persist due
to the depth of the dry layer.

What is the same as yesterday is that Kodiak will continue to get
rain. However, the rain should ease up by this afternoon and then
get a break overnight before the next weak front brings more rain
to the island late Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A fairly benign but unsettled weather pattern is expected to
continue across Southwest Alaska over the next 3 days. Today will
be the driest day as upper level ridging gradually lifts
northward. In the wake of the upper level ridge, an occluded
front will become stalled over the eastern Bering. This will
bring showers to Southwest Alaska tonight through Monday. The
greatest chance of shower activity will be along the Kuskokwim
Delta and coastal Bristol Bay. Chances for showers decrease
farther east across the Kuskokwim Valley. This pattern will
continue through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A broad low over the central to eastern Bering/Aleutians will
continue to gradually weaken over the next 3 days while remaining
nearly stationary. Winds will remain below Gale force with no
high seas expected. This low will continue to bring rain and
showers to the Aleutians through Monday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

A broad area of low pressure will maintain winds less than 35 kts
and seas less than 20 ft over the Bering and the Gulf of Alaska.

&&

Long Term Forecast (Days 3 through 7: Mon through Fri)...

There is a high confidence that a broad circulation pattern
associated with an elongated trough over the Bering will eject
multiple shortwaves with associated surface lows, thereby
maintaining a cool and wet pattern along the Aleutian Chain and
the Bering Sea through Tuesday. Most of the rainfall seem to be
poised over the Eastern Aleutians and over the AKPEN attributed
with an atmospheric river and orographic lift, with a few
isolated showers possible over the Southwest. The latest 12Z
models are slowly coming to an agreement to move an upper level
shortwave from the Kamchatka Peninsula and replace the
aforementioned Bering trough and be the main weather producer
driving systems going forward. If this were to materialize, a low
will settle over the northwest Pacific on Tuesday, pushing a front
toward the western- most Aleutians with periods of rain and gusty
easterlies expanding eastward from Tuesday through Friday. Future
model runs will be needed however for more consistency and
resolve specific details including precipitation timing and the
strength of the winds blowing through the terrain gaps and passes.
Suffice to say that unsettled weather will be the theme with
little break in between.

Over the Gulf, periods of widespread rain over Kodiak Island
associated with a North Pacific low and front will spread further
northward across the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and coastal areas of
PWS. A few isolated showers are possible further inland as well as
near surrounding terrain. Thereafter, a series of North Pacific
lows and associated fronts from the southern Bering will keep
cool, cloudy and wet conditions ongoing in the aforementioned
areas for much of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flod Watch 155.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ED
MARINE/LONG TERM...MF