Small Craft Advisory 343, NWS Anchorage, AK

646 
FZAK51 PAFC 271154
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-280045-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front moves across the Gulf through Wed night.

$$

PKZ119-280045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas building to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-280045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-280045-
Resurrection Bay-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-280045-
Prince William Sound-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas to 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-280045-
Port Valdez-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-280045-
Valdez Narrows-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-280045-
Valdez Arm-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-280045-
Passage Canal-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-280045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-280045-
Barren Islands East-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-280045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-280045-
Chiniak Bay-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-280045-
Marmot Bay-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-280045-
Shelikof Strait-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft...highest over the southern strait.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft...highest over the southern
strait..
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-280045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-280045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-280045-
Kachemak Bay-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

625 
FZAK51 PAFC 272314
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
314 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-281145-
314 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front moves from the central Gulf to the north Gulf coast
through Wed morning.

$$

PKZ119-281145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
314 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt, except E wind 15 kt near the coast. 
Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Near the coast, E wind 25 kt 
in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-281145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
314 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-281145-
Resurrection Bay-
314 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft. 
Rain.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-281145-
Prince William Sound-
314 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. 
Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-281145-
Port Valdez-
314 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-281145-
Valdez Narrows-
314 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-281145-
Valdez Arm-
314 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-281145-
Passage Canal-
314 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-281145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
314 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-281145-
Barren Islands East-
314 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-281145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
314 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-281145-
Chiniak Bay-
314 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-281145-
Marmot Bay-
314 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-281145-
Shelikof Strait-
314 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft...highest over the southern
strait.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft...highest over the southern strait.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-281145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
314 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-281145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
314 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-281145-
Kachemak Bay-
314 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 AM AKDT Mon Apr 26 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Upper level ridging holds strong over the eastern portions of the
State, which is also reflected at the surface levels. Meanwhile, a
longwave trough has finally broken through, pushing onto and
across the Southwest mainland. This North Pacific low begins
moving southeast briefly before becoming almost stationary just south
of the Gulf. Its front and a series of waves move across the Gulf
through mid-week, applying pressure on the upper level ridge,
weakening it and forcing it out. This will allow more active
weather to begin makings its way back into Mainland Southcentral.
High pressure exists across the central Bering through mid-week as
well, and is sandwiched between two low pressure systems. One of
which is a polar low, whose trough extends down across Southwest
Alaska, while the other is the remnants of Typhoon Surigae. The
polar low in conjunction with the high pressure ridge will
eventually allow colder northerly upper-level flow to move across
the Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good overall synoptic agreement through the
forecast period. Discrepancies across models for a digging trough
are low and will be non-impactful.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Mon and
Tue)...

Our blocking ridge of high pressure will hang on for a few more
days before slowly yielding to clouds and even chances for
precipitation across the southern mainland on Wed. First,
satellite clearly shows little change to the synoptic pattern from
the weekend. High pressure remains parked over the Copper River
Basin while areas of low pressure continue to pass through the
Sand Point area. Caught in between these systems is Kodiak Island
where frontal system after frontal system continue to make for
cloudy, breezy, and wet weather. The next front in the series has
slowed down some this morning, so we have trended slower with PoPs
over the island. However, we do expect rain to start there once
again by late this morning/early this afternoon. Once it returns,
expect light rain to be persistent all the way through Tue with
broad onshore flow associated with a decaying stationary front.

Over the mainland, abundant sunshine and warm temperatures are
once again in store for today. However, the area of high pressure
will be under siege from just about all directions as we head
toward the middle of the week. One of the first features to move
in will be a cold upper level wave from Canada. This shortwave
will slide north to south along the AlCan Border late Monday
leading to a slight cool down Tuesday over the Copper River Basin.
Another piece of energy will drift south from the Interior on Tue
allowing for continued deterioration of the high pressure. As it
wanes, it will open the door for some cloud cover to filter back
in late Tue. It will also create the possibility of some
southeasterly gap winds through places like the Turnagain and Knik
Arms by late Tue. Overall, the next few days will continue to
feature dry conditions with slightly more "normal" April weather
returning as we head through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Monday
and Tuesday)...

An upper level trough over Southwest Alaska remains sandwiched
between ridging over the eastern Interior and western Bering.
Embedded within the trough are two shortwaves, one over the AKPen
and the other over the North Pacific. The shortwave over the
AKPen will push weak pulses of energy onto the Mainland this
morning, continuing the overcast and showery pattern through
midday. By this afternoon, the shortwave over the North Pacific
will push to the south as the upper level trough amplifies. This
will pull the low over the AKPen southward as well, bringing in
much drier air from the Interior. Clearing skies overnight Monday
into Tuesday morning will drop the lows a few degrees from those
observed Monday morning. The weather on Tuesday should be mostly
clear with temperatures remaining above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Monday
and Tuesday)...

Mostly calm conditions are expected throughout the region as high
pressure builds in from the west. A compact low over the AKPen
will bring rain and overcast skies to the Central and Eastern
Aleutians today. These should begin to taper off Tuesday morning
as the low gets pulled south underneath a rapidly amplifying
trough. Meanwhile, a ridge is expected to build in from the
western Bering to the north of the remnants of Typhoon Surigae.
Due to the ridge, the now extra-tropical cyclone will remain south
of the forecast area, but its front will bring gale force winds
and rain to the Western Aleutians Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

The forecast period overall looks quiet with winds generally
below 35 kts and less than 20 ft seas for much of the Bering and
western Gulf. The only exception is the marine waters around the
southwestern Bering and the Western Aleutian Islands which are
expected to experience gale force winds Wednesday as a result
of a low pressure system to the south (former Typhoon Surigae).
Winds will gradually continue to weaken over this area Wednesday
evening and night as the low exits across the North Pacific.
Lastly, a low over the northeast Pacific will lift northward
toward the eastern Gulf Thursday through Friday. There is a
high level of uncertainty in the track and strength of this
low, so stay tuned.

&&

.Long Term Forecast (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

Beginning Thursday, the stretch of nice, sunny, and dry weather
over Southcentral Alaska comes to an end to an extent. A broad
upper trough is expected to set up over the Alaska Mainland
during this time period. This means cooler temperatures, but
likely near normal for this time of year. There will also be an
increase in the potential for precipitation, though the details
of individual features is highly uncertain. Overall, expect an
increase in the amount of clouds throughout the region, with
some sun still possible - just not like it has been of late.
Meanwhile, weather across the Bering Sea and Aleutians looks
quiet as an upper ridge holds Pacific storms off to the south.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 132 138 150 170 172 173 174 175 176 179 413 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CJ
MARINE/LONG TERM...MV