Small Craft Advisory 25, NWS Anchorage, AK

536 
FZAK52 PAFC 081214
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
314 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-090115-
314 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 997 mb low 40 nm northwest of Saint Paul Island will weaken in 
place by Fri afternoon. A 962 mb 380 nm southwest of Shemya Fri
morning will move to 130nm west of Adak at 958 mb by Sat morning 
and then moves to 150 nm southwest of Dutch Harbor at 965 mb 
Sun morning.

$$

PKZ150-090115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
314 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-090115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
314 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming 
variable 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt except E 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 12 ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon. From the Shumagin
Islands E, seas 7 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-090115-
Bristol Bay-
314 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-090115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
314 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. From Port
Moller E, NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
From Port Moller E, E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt except E 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 9 ft.
Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-090115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
314 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Widespread snow showers.
.SAT...SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 17 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-090115-
Unalaska Bay-
314 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.SAT...SE wind 50 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Widespread snow and rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-090115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
314 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SE 50 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft 
building to 18 ft after midnight. Widespread snow showers.
.SAT...SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 21 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-090115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
314 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-090115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
314 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming SW wind 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 18 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 24 ft in the
afternoon. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-090115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
314 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ176-090115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
314 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 50 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 17 ft. Snow showers and widespread rain showers.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 27 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-090115-
Adak to Kiska-
314 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft in the
afternoon. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Bering side, seas 13 ft. Pacific side, 
seas 15 ft building to 20 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft Bering side... 30 ft Pacific 
side. Snow showers and rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-090115-
Kiska to Attu-
314 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-090115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
314 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Snow showers.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-090115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
314 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-090115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
314 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt.
.MON...N wind 30 kt.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-090115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
314 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
518 AM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Upper level troughing is dominating the Bering and southward
towards the Gulf while an upper level ridge extends from western
Canada into the Interior of Alaska. This is allowing cold
northerly flow across the Bering with temperatures in the 20s with
areas of snow showers. Southwest Alaska continues to see some
light snow associated with a decaying deformation zone as the
front has moved inland, and temperatures in the teens and single
digits in most areas. Across Southcentral most of the
precipitation from the front is winding down with radar showing
light snow along the Alaska Range and a few showers from the
Kenai Peninsula towards Prince William Sound. Satellite shows
cooling cloud tops ahead of the next low pressure system moving
towards the southern Gulf. Temperatures are still cold in the
Susitna Valley with single digits and below zero across the Copper
River Basin. Across Anchorage and Eagle River much of the area has
warmed into the 30s as southeast downslope flow has developed
this morning, a few spots are still in the 20s across east
Anchorage. The MAT valley is generally in the 30s as east to
northeast flow has kept temperatures warmer. Otherwise from Kodiak
City to the Kenai temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s with
20s at Valdez and upper 30s at Cordova. Light rain is currently
reported at Cordova, Kodiak City, Homer, Seward and Palmer.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...Models are generally in good agreement with
the overall pattern with moderate forecast confidence through
Friday, however there are some differences with shortwaves/lows
coming up from the southeast today and Friday that are not handled
well between the various models. Northerly flow across Bering
with weak disturbances are well handled by the models as well as a
storm force low moving towards the Aleutians on Friday. Across
Southcentral models are in fairly good agreement with a low
tracking across the southern Gulf and towards Kodiak Island
through Friday with increasing chances of precipitation along
coastal areas and the coastal mountains as a front moves inland
tonight. Another shortwave and low will move along the eastern
Gulf today and Friday curving towards Prince William Sound, but
big differences in models so low confidence with forecast
regarding these features. Saturday another low pressure moves
towards the Gulf with models in generally good agreement with the
overall pattern but less so with the details of smaller waves
rotating around it.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Winds have turned back to the northwest and should stay
light out of NW to NE through the period. Otherwise a shower or
two is possible this morning, but very low chance. Tonight a weak
disturbance may bring another chance of showers or even light
snow, but confidence is low that this will occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Saturday)...
Similar to yesterday, a deep low will track from the northeast
Pacific northwestward into the western Gulf today, then weaken
over the northeast Gulf tonight into Friday. Today's storm system
does look more impressive, with a potent upper level short-wave
on the east side of the low tracking right for Southcentral. There
are multiple weaker waves embedded within the circulation around
the low, which will lead to an overall stronger wind field. Have
strengthened winds across the Gulf with widespread gales and a
small area of storm force winds along the north Gulf coast this
afternoon. A deep layer of instability could also produce erratic
strong and gusty winds in heavier precipitation. With persistent
low level easterly flow will continue to favor upslope enhanced
heavy precipitation over western Prince William Sound, with one to
two feet of snow likely in the mountains through tonight. Snow
will lighten up a bit as you head inland to the interior Kenai
Mountains. Also, warmer air accompanying this system will cause
snow levels to rise to around 1000 feet by this evening. Thus,
this will primarily be a rain event for areas at or near sea
level.

The upper level short-wave will head inland this evening. Expect
there is enough lift, moisture, and instability to produce some
light precipitation inland despite the continued strong low level
winds and downslope flow. Precipitation-type could be a little
messy from the Kenai Peninsula to Anchorage, as there is and will
continue to be an above freezing warm nose due to the persistent
downslope winds. There could be a mix of rain, snow, and even
freezing rain. However, expect any precipitation that does fall
will be light and brief in nature.

Forecast confidence takes a precipitous decline late tonight
through Friday. Models are struggling with whether this remains
an independent storm system and heads for Southeast Alaska, or
whether upper level short-waves over the northeast Pacific phase
and pull this storm northwestward across the Gulf and into
Southcentral. No matter what, precipitation will persist along
the Gulf coast as one or more troughs lifts northward toward
Southcentral late tonight through Friday. If the latter scenario
were to verify, would expect a slug of heavier precipitation to
reach the Prince William Sound region by early Friday, with
precipitation possibly spreading inland depending on the track
and strength of the surface low.

The active pattern will continue as we head into the weekend,
with another deep low expected to track up into the Gulf on
Saturday. Thus, expect little or no break in elevated winds
and precipitation across the Gulf and along coastal areas of
Southcentral.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Widespread snow showers across Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim
Valley will begin to taper off throughout the day as a surface
low weakens over the mainland. Any new snow accumulations should
not be significant. A second North Pacific low will lift towards
Kodiak Island and Southwest Alaska on Friday morning, which will
bring another chance of snow showers to these same regions once
again throughout the day on Friday.

Over the Kuskokwim Delta, cold temperatures will continue over the
next few days as northerly flow persists, with wind chills dropping
near -30 Friday morning. Temperatures won't drop nearly as low
across Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley due to cloud cover
through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Gusty northwesterly winds will continue across the eastern Bering
and Alaska Peninsula as a low moving inland over Southwest Alaska
weakens throughout the day. This will keep strong winds through
bays and passes on the southern side of the eastern Chain and
Alaska Peninsula today. Light snow in gusty conditions could lead
to periods of blowing snow and reduced visibility early this
morning along the Alaska Peninsula.

Early Friday morning, a weak low near the Pribilofs will bring
snow showers to the islands and central Bering. Farther west, a
much stronger and organized system will begins to move over the
western Bering and Aleutians. This frontal system will bring
widespread precipitation and storm force winds to the region as
it tracks over the central Aleutians and Bering through Saturday
afternoon. Winds will begin to weaken late Saturday into Sunday
morning as the associated low drops back into the North Pacific.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

Gulf of Alaska: No significant winds/seas are expected on
Saturday. On Sunday some small craft southerlies work into the
western Gulf as a weakening front moves in from the west. There is
some upside risk to lower end Gales around the Barren Islands. On
Monday generally small craft easterlies are expected across the
Gulf, but there will continue to be a risk for Gales for southern
portions of the Cook Inlet.

Bering Sea: On Saturday a powerful area of low pressure sets up
across the western Bering with a gale force front extending through
the central Bering into the eastern Aleutians. Models continue to
struggle with the exact placement of this front and the overall
intensification rate of this low, but future forecasts may need the
introduction of storm force winds along a good portion of this
front (up from the current widespread Gales). On Sunday and Monday
this low remains mostly stationary across the western Bering, but
models indicate that a few smaller areas of low pressure may rotate
around this larger low, which could result in some compact areas
of Gales or even storm force winds across portions of the
Bering/Aleutians, but pinning down the location/timing of these
lows remains difficult at this range.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)

Forecast confidence is high for early next week as ensemble model
guidance is all showing a very similar synoptic setup. Even the
details of the surface pattern are close enough to draw some
conclusions about sensible weather. The upper-level longwave trough
looks to remain anchored over the Bering Sea. All three global
models are depicting a closed center developing in the north
Pacific as a strong zonal jet stream undercuts the system and keeps
the progressive pattern away from mainland Alaska. The surface
reflection of the upper levels is progged to follow the upper level
system in the vicinity of Kodiak Island (to the south). That
overall pattern looks to stagnate through next week. The overall
pattern gives greater than normal confidence of at least a gale-
force front along the north gulf coast. Confidence is high for
precipitation along the north Gulf coast. Near surface temperatures
will hover around freezing along the coast, but snow- levels
should remain fairly low. The easterly winds aloft will likely take
a bite out of the moisture for the Cook Inlet region, the details
of the systems will determine if this changes. Temperature-wise it
looks like much of the same, upper elevations will remain close to
freezing with slightly cooler temperature at lower elevations.
There will likely be a lot of higher clouds coming from the east,
so another radiative cooling event as we saw last week
shouldn't come to fruition, at least for a longer duration.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...MTL