Small Craft Advisory 238, NWS Anchorage, AK

853 
FZAK51 PAFC 211149
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
349 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-220100-
349 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 991 mb low 100 nm southeast of Yakutat weakens as it exits into
the Eastern Gulf by Sun afternoon. Weak low pressure lingers 
across the Northern Gulf through Mon. A North Pacific low moves 
to 140 nm south of Middleton Island at 1005 mb by Tue morning.

$$

PKZ119-220100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
349 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of the Copper River Delta.
Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray near the Copper River Delta.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 30 kt out of the Copper River Delta. 
Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-220100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
349 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-220100-
Resurrection Bay-
349 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-220100-
Prince William Sound-
349 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-220100-
Port Valdez-
349 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-220100-
Valdez Narrows-
349 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. 
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-220100-
Valdez Arm-
349 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-220100-
Passage Canal-
349 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt 
near Whittier. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier in the evening. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-220100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
349 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
Freezing spray after midnight.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-220100-
Barren Islands East-
349 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind increasing to 25 kt, except NW 15 kt 
near the Barren Islands. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-220100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
349 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-220100-
Chiniak Bay-
349 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TODAY...W wind to 15 kt. Seas to 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-220100-
Marmot Bay-
349 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-220100-
Shelikof Strait-
349 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming variable 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.MON...Variable wind 15 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas building to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-220100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
349 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray 
in the morning.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Freezing spray 
after midnight.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-220100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
349 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt.
.TONIGHT AND MON...NE wind 10 kt.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-220100-
Kachemak Bay-
349 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

763 
FZAK51 PAFC 212357
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-221245-
357 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1001 mb low 100 nm southeast of Cordova weakens and remains
quasi-stationary. Then it exits into the Eastern Gulf by Mon 
afternoon. A North Pacific low moves to 120 nm south of Middleton 
Island at 1005 mb by Tue morning.

$$

PKZ119-221245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
357 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Freezing spray near the Copper River Delta. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 30 kt out of the Copper River Delta. 
Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-221245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
357 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-221245-
Resurrection Bay-
357 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-221245-
Prince William Sound-
357 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-221245-
Port Valdez-
357 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-221245-
Valdez Narrows-
357 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-221245-
Valdez Arm-
357 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-221245-
Passage Canal-
357 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts 
to 30 kt near Whittier in the evening. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-221245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
357 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-221245-
Barren Islands East-
357 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ132-221245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
357 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ136-221245-
Chiniak Bay-
357 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-221245-
Marmot Bay-
357 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-221245-
Shelikof Strait-
357 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-221245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
357 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft. Freezing spray after midnight.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-221245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
357 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-221245-
Kachemak Bay-
357 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
518 AM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A pair of lows over the Bering and a sprawling front connecting
them which further extends into the western Gulf are the active
weather makers across southern Alaska this morning. The front and
the more eastward located low southwest of Cape Newenham is
producing snow and blowing snow across Bristol Bay, the Kuskokwim
Delta coast, and Kodiak Island. The more westerly of the lows is
helping extend the wintry weather well out into the Bering, and
enhancing the strong northeasterly flow of cold air off the ice
edge. South of the lows and front, much warmer conditions are
occurring across the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, resulting in
the snow changing over to rain in those areas with the warmer
temperatures. The warmer air is moving eastward towards Kodiak
Island.

Cloud cover associated with the front has overspread all of
Southwest Alaska, Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, the southern Mat-Su
Valleys, and extends across Prince William Sound and the north
Gulf Coast. The remaining clearer areas of the Susitna Valley and
Copper River basin are where the coldest temperatures are being
reported, with Glennallen approaching 20 below. The areas where
the clouds have moved in have effectively stopped the radiational
cooling process.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models remain in excellent agreement on the large scale,
despite a very complex weather pattern across Southern Alaska
this morning. Similar conditions as prior forecasts remain the
points of greatest uncertainty this morning. First and foremost
remains the timing of precipitation type changes across Kodiak
Island today. The continual evolution of the event that has now
begun continues to favor a further north track of the soon-to-
develop triple point low just off the coast of Kodiak Island. This
will result in a longer period of rain and above freezing
temperatures starting later this morning. How much snow falls
behind the low as it pulls away also has some uncertainty, along
with the farthest north extent of the snow into the Kenai
Peninsula. Low level dry air will combat the moisture making that
forecast for the Homer area also a bit tricky. There remains some
uncertainty on how long and how severe the blowing snow conditions
will continue along the Kuskokwim Delta coast into this morning.
Finally, temperatures across interior areas have a large potential
range, all depending on how quickly even the thin clouds in the
upper levels dissipate Saturday night, allowing the radiational
cooling process to resume unimpeded. Overall forecast confidence
is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Monday night)...

An occluding front will lift northward across Kodiak Island this
morning, with snow spreading out ahead of the front to the
southern Kenai Peninsula. Marginally warmer air accompanying the
front will cause snow to change over to rain from south to north
across Kodiak Island this morning. Meanwhile, a vorticity maximum
rounding the south side of a low over the eastern Bering will
initiate development of a triple point low, which will track right
across Kodiak Island today. This will really tighten up pressure
gradients just north of Kodiak, leading to high end gales from
Kamishak Bay out across the Barren Islands and hugging the
southeastern Kenai Peninsula. Zonal flow aloft will drive the
upper center and vort-max eastward across the Gulf this afternoon
through tonight, with the surface low following closely behind.
The airmass over Kodiak will cool down as the surface low exits
into the Gulf early this evening, so expect rain to change back to
snow before tapering off tonight. There could be some additional
light snow accumulation.

As for Southcentral, most areas will remain dry and cold, with
some high clouds moving in today. A dry low level air mass,
reinforced by surface northerly winds will limit the ability of
snow to reach the ground over the western Kenai Peninsula. The
best chance of light snow will be in the Kachemak Bay area as well
as the coast of the eastern Kenai Peninsula, but with little or
no accumulation expected. The entire region will dry out tonight
and decreasing clouds will lead to another cold night. Tight
pressure gradients on the back side of the low will lead to an
uptick in offshore gap winds tonight through Sunday morning.
However, with little in the way of upper level forcing, winds
won't be as strong as the last couple days.

Expect a quiet weather pattern as we head through the remainder
of the weekend and into early next week. With no big change in
airmass, the cold temperatures will remain in place, with perhaps
a slight warming trend each day. A weak low will track up from the
Pacific on Monday, but will remain over the southern Gulf. The
only impact on Southcentral will be another slight uptick in
coastal gap winds due to the tightening pressure gradients.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

A front moving onshore is bringing snow and blowing snow to
coastal areas this morning. The heaviest snowfall continues to be
expected from Dillingham and west. Snow will continue through this
morning and gradually taper to more scattered snow showers moving
farther inland by this afternoon. A series of upper level
shortwaves will allow these to continue off and on through Monday.
A deeper upper trough will likewise move over the region on
Monday, leading to cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

Two lows in the Bering are bringing rain/snow showers across the
eastern/central Aleutians and Pribilofs this morning. These will
continue through Sunday as the western low moves south along an
upper trough axis. The combination of a deep upper trough and
northerly surface flow will bring much cooler temperatures on
Monday. A building ridge will lead to benign conditions across the
western Bering into early next week.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Gulf of Alaska: No significant marine weather is expected in the
Day 3 through 5 period. A weak low will move west to east across
the southern Gulf Mon and Tue, which will allow for gusty winds out
of bays and passes. Localized winds up to gale force are possible
out of Kennedy Entrance on Tue. A front will approach the western
Gulf on Wed with high confidence that winds will remain below
gale force.

Bering: Northerly winds over the eastern Bering are expected to be
near gale force with gales likely out of bays and passes to the
south of the eastern Aleutians/AK Pen. A gale force front
extending from a Kamchatka low is expected to traverse the Bering
from west to east Mon night through Wed morning. Winds are
expected to decrease below gale force by Wed afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

A highly amplified pattern on Tue with a trough over the AK
mainland and ridge over the Bering will transition to a more
meridional pattern by Fri with slight troughing over the Bering
and slight ridging over the mainland. The active weather is
expected to move west to east beginning with a large frontal
system traversing the Bering Tuesday morning and reaching
Southwest Alaska Tuesday afternoon. The upper level trough and
surface low are expected to be over the Chukchi Sea with a stout
ridge over the north Pacific. This will place Southwest Alaska in
a period of prolonged southwest flow through Thursday morning
meaning there is potential for heavy snow or prolonged rain.
Precipitation type at this time is low confidence with some model
guidance increasing surface temperatures above freezing with 925
mb temperatures remaining just below freezing. Most of the upper
level energy appears to stay north of Southcentral on Thursday,
but with steady southwest flow of moisture aloft some snow or rain
can’t be ruled out. Due to this flow pattern Southcentral could
see its first warm up of the Spring Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 155 161.
MARINE...Gale: 119 120 130-132 138 139 352.
Heavy Freezing Spray: 139 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP
MARINE/LONG TERM...CJ