Small Craft Advisory 135, NWS Anchorage, AK

289 
FZAK51 PAFC 151243
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-160130-
343 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front over the central Gulf moves to the northern Gulf Mon
night. A second front approaches the western Gulf Tue afternoon
and moves to the central Gulf Tue night.

$$

PKZ119-160130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
343 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Along the coast, SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ120-160130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
343 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 8 ft. Rain
and snow.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ121-160130-
Resurrection Bay-
343 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-160130-
Prince William Sound-
343 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-160130-
Port Valdez-
343 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-160130-
Valdez Narrows-
343 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-160130-
Valdez Arm-
343 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-160130-
Passage Canal-
343 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-160130-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
343 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ131-160130-
Barren Islands East-
343 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ132-160130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
343 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-160130-
Chiniak Bay-
343 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
1 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-160130-
Marmot Bay-
343 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ138-160130-
Shelikof Strait-
343 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt this morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 4 
ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-160130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
343 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Freezing spray in the evening. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-160130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
343 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.WED...N wind 20 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-160130-
Kachemak Bay-
343 AM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

725 
FZAK51 PAFC 160023
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
323 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-161300-
323 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front over the Central Gulf moves to the Northern Gulf Mon night, 
then dissipates Tue. A second front enters the Western Gulf Tue 
afternoon, then moves to the North Gulf Coast by Wed morning.

$$

PKZ119-161300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
323 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-161300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
323 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-161300-
Resurrection Bay-
323 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-161300-
Prince William Sound-
323 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Snow showers and rain.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-161300-
Port Valdez-
323 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-161300-
Valdez Narrows-
323 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-161300-
Valdez Arm-
323 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-161300-
Passage Canal-
323 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Snow.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-161300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
323 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-161300-
Barren Islands East-
323 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-161300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
323 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 10
ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-161300-
Chiniak Bay-
323 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ137-161300-
Marmot Bay-
323 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming variable less 10 kt after 
midnight. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-161300-
Shelikof Strait-
323 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming variable 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-161300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
323 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 
5 ft building to 8 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Rain and snow.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-161300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
323 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-161300-
Kachemak Bay-
323 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
540 AM AKST Sun Feb 14 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad upper level low remains centered south of the central
Aleutians. At the surface, a complex low center is spinning just
west of Unalaska Island. The associated front extends over the
Bering, across the southern Alaska Peninsula, and into the northern
Gulf. Easterly gale force winds continue across the central and
eastern Bering waters while over the Gulf, areas of gale force
winds persist over the Barren Islands and Kamishak Bay. A large
upper level high over the Alaska-Yukon border continues to keep
conditions relatively dry across Southcentral.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions remain in good agreement through the short term.
There is some uncertainty regarding the track of a north Pacific
low lifting northward over the Gulf Monday into Tuesday. Models
have not been consistent with this track, and currently the NAM is
advertising a more northern route into Prince William Sound while
the GFS keeps the low center positioned farther south of PWS
Monday night. Out west, models continue to advertise a broad
Bering low remaining in place over the central Aleutians before
eventually moving eastward by late Tuesday. At this time, there is
little agreement on where this low center tracks, with the NAM/EC
solution placing the low center over the southern AKPEN, while the
GFS solution keep the low centered over northern Bristol Bay.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. There is a
slight chance fog will develop over Cook Inlet and drift near the
terminal late Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 2: Today
through Tuesday)...

A frontal system just south of Kodiak Island this morning will
continue to slowly lift north through the day. As it does, rain
will persist for Kodiak City as an easterly flow off the Gulf
keeps temperatures in the upper 30s. A weak surface low will spin
up along the front just east of Kodiak Island Monday morning. The
low and its associated front will then push northeast toward the
northern Gulf by Tuesday morning. This system, combined with an
upper-level wave, will help spread light snow across coastal
Southcentral beginning Monday afternoon over the Kenai Peninsula,
spreading north across the Anchorage Bowl, Mat-Su Valleys, and
Prince William Sound late Monday night through Tuesday. The low
will track to the east toward the Alaska Panhandle on Tuesday;
however, the upper-level wave will continue to slowly lift across
Southcentral. The moist, southerly flow will allow light snow to
continue through the day, especially across the mountains of
Southcentral Alaska as well as Cook Inlet and the Susitna Valley.

There remains some uncertainty with how much snow will fall across
the western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage Bowl, and Mat-Su Valleys.
Light accumulations are likely. But given that models are now
indicating that most of the low-level energy will slide farther
east, snow totals for the aforementioned areas look less
impressive than yesterday. Still, a general 1-3 inches is not out
of the question, although it is beginning to look as if most
locations may see the lower end of this range.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A series of shortwaves extending off of a slow moving low
pressure system move across the Southwest today through Wednesday.
This system is slow moving and lingers along the Aleutian Chain
through tomorrow night before finally moving east and merging with
a separate North Pacific low entering the Eastern Gulf on
Wednesday. Snow showers are expected to accompany these
shortwaves, especially along the upslope regions of the Kuskokwim
and Kilbuck Mountain Ranges and the northwestern parts of the
Kuskokwim Delta, including Nunivak Island. The first round of
snowfall is expected today through Monday afternoon affecting
Dillingham and areas west, with accumulations from 1-3 inches and
higher accumulations along the higher elevations. There will be a
brief break late Monday night through Tuesday morning before
another shortwave pushes into Bristol Bay. This will bring another
round of snow showers to Western Bristol Bay, as well as a round
of snow to the Western Kuskokwim Delta as it tracks across the
Southwest Mainland. Accumulations of 1-3 inches are expected in
both regions, with locally higher amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A strong, slow moving system resides nearly stationary along the
Central Aleutian Islands through tomorrow night, weakening and
exiting towards the east by Wednesday. East/northeast flow
persists across the much of the Bering today. Flow will remain
northeasterly across the Northern and Western Bering over the next
couple days, while the Eastern portions transition to
south/southeasterly. A push of colder air through the Bering
Strait continues today through at least Tuesday night. Thus, when
combined with the strong winds, heavy freezing spray will continue
to be a major concern across the Northern Bering, especially
north and west of St. Matthew Island. Winds will mostly be Gale
force, with some widespread high end small craft winds across the
Bering and Aleutian Chain Coasts. Widespread rain and snow showers
are expected across the Bering today and tonight as well.

Winds will remain gusty through tomorrow night for most of the
Aleutian Islands. Flow is southerly for the Eastern Aleutians and
the Southern AKPEN, and northerly for areas further west.
Therefore, Unalaska and areas east will see persistent rain/snow
showers or all rain through tomorrow night until the low begins
moving east and colder air gets wrapped around the low. Once the
low begins moving east, these areas should see a transition back
to snow or a wintery mix with snow being the dominant form of
precipitation. Snow will be the main form of precipitation for
the higher elevations, with accumulations between 5-10 inches in
some places. The lower elevations are expected to see little to no
accumulations.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

Bering Sea: A Central Aleutian low exits over the Alaska
Peninsula by Thursday. Model track and development are close, so
confidence is good through the period. Widespread high end small
craft winds and waves with areas of gale force winds over the
Central and Eastern Aleutians dissipating late Wednesday. Wave
heights to 15 feet over the Central Bering subsiding Wednesday. A
new low and front approach the Western Aleutians and Bering
Thursday.

Gulf of Alaska: Weak high pressure yields to a front entering the
Southwest Gulf late Tuesday. The front will extend across the the
Northern Gulf by Thursday. Model track and development are close,
so confidence is good through the period. Widespread small craft
winds and waves extend over the Gulf with the front for Wednesday.
Lingering small craft winds along the North Gulf Coast for Thu.
Wave heights to 13 feet over the Southern Gulf subsides late
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Generally unsettled weather will mid-to-late week. A broad low
will track over the central Bering on Wednesday. Widespread snow
showers along its associated front will is expected to bring
widespread snow across nearly all of the mainland. These will
gradually taper off through Thursday, with an upper trough digging
over western Alaska later in the week leading to cooler
temperatures. Snow showers look to continue over Southcentral and
the Copper River Basin through the end of the week as a low tracks
northward in the Gulf. The timing and placement of these features
remains somewhat uncertain, therefore there is only low to
moderate confidence at this time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales: 130, 131, 160, 170, 172, 173, 174, 175, 177, 179,
                180, 185, 411, 412, 413, 414.
         Heavy Freezing Spray: 180, 185.
         Marine Weather Statement: 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/AP