Small Craft Advisory 123, NWS Anchorage, AK

238 
FZAK51 PAFC 111619 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
719 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-120415-
719 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A strong front persists across the Gulf through Friday morning. A
second front enters the Gulf Friday afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-120415-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
719 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-120415-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
719 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-120415-
Resurrection Bay-
719 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt in the morning diminishing to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-120415-
Prince William Sound-
719 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-120415-
Port Valdez-
719 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-120415-
Valdez Narrows-
719 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-120415-
Valdez Arm-
719 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-120415-
Passage Canal-
719 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Freezing spray. Snow. 
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-120415-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
719 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow and rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Snow and rain. 
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-120415-
Barren Islands East-
719 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
27 ft. Snow and rain. 
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-120415-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
719 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, SE wind 45 kt
becoming E 35 kt after midnight. Seas 27 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-120415-
Chiniak Bay-
719 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight. Rain and snow. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10  ft. Snow and rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-120415-
Marmot Bay-
719 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11  ft. Snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-120415-
Shelikof Strait-
719 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-120415-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
719 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-120415-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
719 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-120415-
Kachemak Bay-
719 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5  ft. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

971 
FZAK51 PAFC 120012
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-121330-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A strong front moves across the Gulf this afternoon and evening. A
second front enters the southern Gulf Friday afternoon. A third
front moves into the southwestern Gulf Saturday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-121330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. Higher winds and seas near
the Copper River Delta. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-121330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
24 ft subsiding to 18 ft after midnight.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-121330-
Resurrection Bay-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-121330-
Prince William Sound-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft 
subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-121330-
Port Valdez-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-121330-
Valdez Narrows-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-121330-
Valdez Arm-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-121330-
Passage Canal-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after 
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-121330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-121330-
Barren Islands East-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
28 ft subsiding to 19 ft after midnight. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-121330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, SE wind 45 kt
becoming E 35 kt after midnight. Seas 27 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-121330-
Chiniak Bay-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft subsiding to 11 ft afer midnight. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-121330-
Marmot Bay-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 18
ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-121330-
Shelikof Strait-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-121330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft 
subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-121330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-121330-
Kachemak Bay-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft. Freezing spray E of Homer. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
524 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level pattern has not changed much over the past day. The
ridge in the eastern Gulf of Alaska is flattened over Southcentral
with a small axis along the AlCan border and a larger one
extending through Bristol Bay and through the northern Bering Sea.
This ridge is blocking the progression of the front in Southwest
Alaska and why it is stalling in that area.

The surface ridge is quite strong (about 1064 mb) and well
offshore in the Arctic Ocean with a sub 950 mb low south of the
Central Aleutians. This large pressure gradient is keeping the
gale-to-storm force winds across the Bering Sea which is
producing Heavy Freezing Spray near the ice edge.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are finally settling into an agreement that increases
confidence in the overall forecast. The two main issues we have
been watching the past few days are the low south of the Gulf of
Alaska and the front swinging through the Bering Sea from east-
to-west Thursday through Friday. Models are all in line with that
Bering Sea front and its timing and movement. For the low south of
the Gulf of Alaska, the models are in decent agreement, and much
better than a day or two ago. However the GFS is a bit of an
outlier where it wants to move a wave northward through the
northwestern Gulf Saturday and is the only one indicating that.
Even so, looking back at the issues from Monday, it seems that the
GFS was the closest model on both the low south of the Gulf of
Alaska as well as the front in the Bering Sea. So, its solution
on this cannot be ruled out just because it is an outlier.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and northerly winds will persist. There is
the chance for some low level wind shear (LLWS) starting Thursday
as winds aloft increase from the southeast. However, the shear
layer will most likely be above the 2000 ft LLWS threshold.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Wednesday Night through Saturday)...

The final few flakes are being squeezed out over the Susitna
Valley this afternoon as quiet and warmer conditions return to
the Southcentral mainland. Thursday should be the warmest day of
the week due to broad southerly flow, which will also keep the
skies mostly cloudy. A slow decrease in temperature and cloud
cover will begin on Friday as an upper level high over the Yukon
pulls in drier, colder air from the interior. By Saturday most of
the Southcentral mainland will enjoy sunshine and seasonal
temperatures.

Kodiak Island will be the focus of active weather through at least
Friday afternoon. Some light rain is expected this evening, which
will increase in intensity early Thursday morning as a front parks
itself overhead. Temperatures aloft are quite cold, however the
long fetch over 40F water should keep the precipitation as mostly
rain with some snow mixed in. Heavy snow is expected above ~500
ft, with accumulations up to 25 inches expected. Slight
perturbations in the flow may cause some periods of heavy snow at
lower elevations through Friday morning. Accumulation from these
events will be negligible due to temperatures ranging from 35F to
40F. A closed low is expected to form along the front to the
southeast of Kodiak early Friday morning. This will help to pull
in colder air from the northeast by Friday afternoon, which should
switch the predominant precipitation type to snow. By this time
there won't be too much moisture left over, so accumulation at sea
level should remain in the realm of two inches by Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Wednesday Afternoon through Saturday)...

The upper level ridge has moved north towards the interior as a
shortwave supporting a warm front moves up from the south. The
front will move into Bristol Bay tonight and continue to produce
light snow in the Kuskokwim Delta and Kilbuck Mountains. Winds
will continue to increase through Thursday as a stronger shortwave
and frontal system moves towards the area Thursday afternoon
through the evening hours this will tighten up the pressure
gradient even more with very gusty winds and blowing snow. As the
front pushes north and west temperatures will warm into the 30s
which will put an end to the blowing snow Thursday evening in the
Kuskokwim Delta. The snow will also end as the front pushes
northwest. A winter weather advisory continues through
Thursday evening for coastal areas of the Kuskokwim Delta, it may
need to be extended if temperatures are slow to warm up as it
will remain windy through at least midnight.

Friday the area will dry out and winds will decrease with
lingering clouds and temperatures in the upper 20s to the 30s.
Saturday will feature quiet weather with temperatures a bit
cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Wednesday Afternoon through Saturday)...

The active pattern continues for the foreseeable future across the
Bering and Aleutians as low pressure dominates much of the area as
the upper level ridge has been pushed north from roughly St
Matthew Island and south and east towards the Gulf.

Widespread Gales will continue through Thursday across much of the
Bering as well as heavy freezing spray across the northern Bering.
A low will form along the front moving across the AKPEN tomorrow
and swinging across the eastern Bering this will bring a swath of
storm force winds south of the AKPEN tonight and moving into
Bristol Bay and the eastern Bering Thursday morning. The front
will push north and west Thursday and by Thursday night the front
will be near Nunivak Island and extending southwest just north of
St Paul Island. Behind this front will be slightly warmer air and
decreasing winds on Friday with small crafts across much of the
Bering with a few lingering areas of Gales especially in the
eastern and western Bering Sea. Saturday a complex low pressure
system will approach the central and eastern Aleutians with a
storm force low spreading gales and storm force winds into the
eastern Aleutians and AKPEN Saturday morning and spreading into
the southern Bering Sea. Gales will also increase from south to
north across much of the Bering with an increasing threat of heavy
freezing spray in the northern Bering on Saturday which may once
again impact fishing operations in the northern Bering this
weekend.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)... Saturday through Monday...

Bering Sea: Heavy freezing spray is likely in the northern Bering
Sea near the ice edge. Widespread gale force winds and waves with
local areas of high end gale force winds nearly cover the Bering
through Sunday. Wave heights for the eastern Aleutians, Alaska
Peninsula and Bering over 20 feet. The Western Bering will have
wave heights over 30 feet Sunday and then subside on Monday.

Gulf of Alaska: Models are in good agreement with a strong front
diminishing early Saturday. Gustier winds linger through the
Barren Island and Shelikof Strait through late Saturday. A new
band of gale force winds and waves moves into the Southwest Gulf
early Sunday. Wave heights to 26 feet east of Kodiak Island
subsiding Saturday. A new area of waves to 20 feet build
Southwest of Sitkinak for Sunday. The models diverge past Sunday
bringing an element of uncertainty for the Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

There is a fair amount of divergence with the model solutions
that amplifies with time. There are a few items that can be
gleaned. Cold air will continue to advect from Russia towards the
Western Aleutians. There will be 2-3 lows impacting the Bering and
Aleutians. The ridge is going to start breaking down allowing for
a more progressive pattern. Some of the energy from the Bering
and North Pacific storms will get kicked towards Kodiak, the
Western Aleutian Range and the Gulf. The Canadian and the GFS are
spinning up an arctic front that will push across Southcentral late in
the period on Thursday/Friday. Multiple models were blended to
produce the long term forecast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 155.
MARINE...Storm Warning 150 160 180 181 185 411 412 130 131 132
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 180 185 414 139
		 Gale Warning 155 165 170 171 172 173 175 177 178 179 413
 					  414 351 352 119 120 136-139.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CJ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...PJS