Small Craft Advisory 115, NWS Anchorage, AK

837 
FZAK52 PAFC 090043
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-091400-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 988 mb North Pacific low extends a front through the Eastern
Bering that dissipates Tue afternoon. A front over the Western
Aleutians dissipates Tue afternoon. A front approaches the
Central Aleutians Wed afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-091400-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ155-091400-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ160-091400-
Bristol Bay-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy
freezing spray near ice edge.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing
spray near ice edge.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy
freezing spray near ice edge.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-091400-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-091400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-091400-
Unalaska Bay-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-091400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ173-091400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt by afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ174-091400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 increasing to 25 kt by afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ175-091400-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ176-091400-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ177-091400-
Adak to Kiska-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt decreasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 18
ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15
ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ178-091400-
Kiska to Attu-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt decreasing to S 35 kt after midnight. Seas 
21 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU...N wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ179-091400-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt increasing to 25 kt by afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ180-091400-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-091400-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Heavy freezing spray near ice edge. Snow.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Heavy freezing spray near ice edge.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Heavy freezing spray near ice edge.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt.
.THU...E wind 35 kt.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-091400-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
343 PM AKST Mon Feb 8 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

449 
FZAK52 PAFC 091302
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-100230-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Two fronts off a North Pacific low move across the Bering. The 
first front moves Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. The 
second front enters the Southern Bering Wednesday afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-100230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft building to 19 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ155-100230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ160-100230-
Bristol Bay-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy
freezing spray near ice edge.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing
spray near ice edge.
.WED...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-100230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 
ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ170-100230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-100230-
Unalaska Bay-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-100230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ173-100230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-100230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-100230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-100230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ177-100230-
Adak to Kiska-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-100230-
Kiska to Attu-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU...N wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ179-100230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ180-100230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.

$$

PKZ181-100230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 40 kt.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ185-100230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
402 AM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
429 PM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An amplified pattern remains in place with an upper level ridge
extending along an axis from the northern Gulf toward the
northwestern mainland. Meanwhile to the east, a strong upper level
low continues to gradually move southward over the Alcan border,
pushing up against the ridge. The interaction between these two
features will help to keep northerly outflow winds in place
across Southcentral. Farther west, an upper level low over
Kamchatka continues to bring several upper level waves across the
Bering. A front remains nearly stationary over the eastern
Aleutians with moist southerly flow continuing to bring rainfall
to the eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall, the model solutions are in good agreement through the
short term. Several key differences arise by Tuesday in the upper
level pattern. The 12Z NAM was an outlier and did not advertise a
strong upper level Arctic low over the North Slope. Ultimately,
this solution keeps much stronger ridge in place over the
Gulf/southern Mainland. In contrast, the GFS/EC/Canadian solutions
all advertise a strong upper level low developing over the
northern half of the state, and as a result, shows the ridge
flattening out by late Tuesday. This discrepancy has created
uncertainty regarding the timing of a front arriving over the
Southwest coast late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Of note, the
18Z NAM did come into agreement with the GFS/EC/Canadian solution
and therefore offers some boost of confidence, though there is
still time for solutions to flip-flop. For Southcentral, model
solutions are struggling to resolve a feature arriving over the
northern Gulf coast/Prince William Sound area on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...LIFR conditions are likely with stratus and fog continuing
to impact the terminal today. Conditions may briefly improve at
times as the fog/stratus occasionally drifts over the Inlet
however northerly winds should increase around 15z and will help
to mitigate the fog altogether, leading to VFR conditions by
Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Sunday
night through Wednesday afternoon)...

A quiet pattern is expected in the short term due to a polar low
over the Yukon Territory and a ridge over western Alaska.
Northerly winds are expected to develop across the region tonight,
bringing clear skies and an end to the low stratus and fog over
the Cook Inlet by Monday morning. A northwesterly jet streak over
the Copper River Valley and eastern Gulf will help to amplify
cold outflow winds through areas like Thompson Pass and the
Copper River Delta. A weak surface low is also expected to develop
over the northern Gulf in the right entrance region of the jet
streak. This will aide the cold air advection from the polar
surface high over the interior. As such, a Wind Chill Advisory
has been issued for Thompson Pass with wind chills below -40F
expected. Winds should begin to subside on Tuesday as the polar
low over the Yukon shears apart due to the advancing ridge from
the west.

The pattern changes late Tuesday as the ridge axis moves over
Southcentral. This pattern is fairly complex due to large
displacements of the low-, mid-, and upper-level high pressure
centers. At this time, light snow is likely for the western
Prince William Sound and eastern Kenai Peninsula. The forecast is
uncertain from the Western Kenai to the Mat-Su Valleys due to a
combination of weak southeast flow in the low-levels and southwest
flow in the mid-levels. The forecast question is whether the
downslope component of the southeasterly flow will dry out the
atmosphere enough to mitigate precipitation or if the moisture
will overcome the downsloping to bring light snow to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Southwest Alaska stays quiet the next couple of days with high
pressure and cold air over interior AK filtering into Southwest
AK. This is creating light northeasterly flow for the region and
cold temperatures. This dome of air is also holding off a weak
front approaching the Southwest Coast. Models have come into
agreement that this front will stay off the coast, hanging up just
offshore. This adjustment is reflected in today's forecast.

Tuesday into Wednesday the next frontal system moves towards
Southwest AK, this time managing to work inland. It is anticipated
to bring light snow, with a few inches falling at most. Some
disagreement in models still exists with this system, so
adjustments to this forecast will need to made, though they should
be minor. This system will come in from a southerly direction, so
it is anticipated to bring warm air as well, increasing surface
temperatures and kicking out the cold air. Overall, high
confidence going forward for an increase in temps, and moderate
amount in how much snowfall we'll get.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A weak front is nearly stationary in the Eastern Bering,
sandwiched between the Pribilofs and Mainland AK. This front
dropped a substantial amount of rain on the Central Aleutians,
with Dutch Harbor recording around 3 inches. This front will
continue to remain nearly stationary, as high pressure to the east
prevents it from moving ashore. In fact, it even retrogrades a
bit tomorrow. This is a bit of a change from yesterday, as models
now agree it will not impact Southwest AK, so this was adjusted
in the forecast.

A another weak front enters into the Western Aleutians tomorrow
and also moves slowly east, but never makes it past the Western
Aleutians before decaying. The next system of significance is a
gale force front that moves north across the Aleutians Tuesday
into Wednesday, coming out of the North Pacific. This system is
quite elongated, so most of the Aleutian Chain will see weather
from this system. Since this system is coming from the south, it
will bring warm air with it, so expect any precipitation to fall
as rain. Overall, moderate to high confidence with this next
system and with the Bering Sea in general the next few days.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wed through Fri)...

Bering Sea: Models are coming into better agreement with a deep
North Pacific low on Wednesday positioned south of the western
Aleutians. The associated front will bring widespread high end
gale force winds stretched across the entirety of the Bering Sea
through Thursday afternoon as the low center lifts towards Adak.
There is some uncertainty of where the strongest core of winds
will be located, but there is a chance to see sustained storm
force winds Wednesday and Thursday across the Bering, which when
then start to slightly weaken on Friday.

Gulf of Alaska: There is good agreement of a front over the
western Gulf on Wednesday, which will increase to gale force
strength and persists through Friday morning. By Friday afternoon,
winds will decrease to small craft advisory level and continue to
weaken through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thu through Sun)...

A cool but relatively quiet pattern is in store for the Alaskan
mainland as surface and upper level high pressure extend across
the area. There is good ensemble agreement that higher pressure
will be over the Alaskan interior and lower pressure off shore in
the Bering and Gulf, thus the flow will be offshore and thus keep
the cool and dry airmass in place. Deterministic models show an
upper level wave moving northward across Southwest Thursday night
into Friday. There is low confidence in the forecast of this upper
level wave due to significant discrepancies between guidance with
the placement and orientation of this wave. The predominant storm
track will remain over the Bering/Aleutians as North Pacific storm
systems move northeastward along the aforementioned upper high and
into the Bering/Aleutians.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory 131.
MARINE...Storm Warning 178.
		 Gale Warning 127 128 165 177 180 181 185 411.
	     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 127 139 140 160 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CJ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BB
MARINE/LONG TERM...AH/ED